Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector     

Hermann Held  Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe  Tobias Pardowitz  Joaquim G. Pinto  Uwe Ulbrich  Kai Born  Markus G. Donat  Melanie K. Karremann  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Patrick Ludwig  Katrin M. Nissen  Hermann Österle  Boris F. Prahl  Peter C. Werner  Daniel J. Befort  Olaf Burghoff 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):195-207

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.  相似文献   

Aorounga and Gweni Fada impact structures,Chad: Remote sensing,petrography, and geochemistry of target rocks     

Christian Koeberl  Wolf Uwe Reimold  Gordon Cooper  Duncan Cowan  Pierre M. Vincent 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(9-10):1455-1471

Abstract— Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data was used to investigate the Aorounga and Gweni Fada impact structures in Chad as part of a new remote sensing study. We believe the results of various data treatments provide extensive new perspective on the macro‐structural and topographic divisions for these two impact structures. Our remote sensing studies indicate revised diameters of Aorounga and Gweni Fada of 16 and 22 km, respectively. We selected samples from these two structures for their petrographic, geochemical, and Rb‐Sr and Sm‐Nd isotopic characteristics. In samples from both structures, evidence for shock metamorphism was found in the form of single or multiple sets of planar deformation features in quartz, which confirms the impact origin for both the Aorounga and Gweni Fada structures. The crystallographic orientations of PDFs indicate maximum shock levels of 20–30 GPa for samples from the central parts of both structures. The PDF orientations are characteristic for the orientations observed elsewhere in shocked sandstones, with the higher angles in the orientation histograms being fairly abundant. Geochemically, the rocks are typical upper‐crustal sandstones.  相似文献   

First petrographic results on impactites from the Yaxcopoil‐1 borehole,Chicxulub structure,Mexico     

Martin G. Tuchscherer  W. Uwe Reimold  Christian Koeberl  Roger L. Gibson  Deon de Bruin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2004,39(6):899-930

Abstract— The ICDP Yaxcopoil‐1 (Yax‐1) borehole located 60 km south‐southwest of the center of the Chicxulub impact structure intercepted an interval of allogenic impactites (depth of 795–895 m). Petrographic analysis of these impactites allows them to be differentiated into five units based on their textural and modal variations. Unit 1 (795–922 m) comprises an apparently reworked, poorly sorted and graded, fine‐grained, clast‐supported, melt fragment‐bearing suevitic breccia. The interstitial material, similar to units 2 and 3, is permeated by numerous carbonate veinlets. Units 2 (823–846 m) and 3 (846–861 m) are groundmass‐supported breccias that comprise green to variegated angular and fluidal melt particles. The groundmass of units 2 and 3 comprises predominantly fine‐grained calcite, altered alkali element‐, Ca‐, and Si‐rich cement, as well as occasional lithic fragments. Unit 4 (861–885 m) represents a massive, variably devitrified, and brecciated impact melt rock. The lowermost unit, unit 5 (885–895 m), comprises highly variable proportions of melt rock particles (MRP) and lithic fragments in a fine‐grained, carbonate‐dominated groundmass. This groundmass could represent either a secondary hydrothermal phase or a carbonate melt phase, or both. Units 1 and 5 contain well‐preserved foraminifera fossils and a significantly higher proportion of carbonate clasts than the other units. All units show diagnostic shock deformation features in quartz and feldspar clasts. Our observations reveal that most felsic and all mafic MRP are altered. They register extensive K‐metasomatism. In terms of emplacement, we suggest that units 1 to 3 represent fallout suevite from a collapsing impact plume, whereby unit 1 was subsequently reworked by resurging water. Unit 4 represents a coherent impact melt body, the formation of which involved a significant proportion of crystalline basement. Unit 5 is believed to represent an initial ejecta/ground‐surge deposit.  相似文献   

From a Weak to a Strong Comet – 3d Global Hybrid Simulation Studies     

Bagdonat  Thorsten  Motschmann  Uwe 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,90(1-4):305-321

Plasma structures resulting from the solar wind interaction with weakcomets are discussed. Numericalsimulations using a newly developed hybrid code are presented. The simulations are primarily applied to quantitative data for cometWirtanen, which will be the target of the Rosetta mission. It isexpected that Wirtanen is very weak during the first encounter. The main purpose is the discussion of the different features of the plasmaenvironment, such as the structured cycloidal plasma tail and non-linear Mach cones typical for weak comets and their relation tostructures like shocklets, bow shock, diamagnetic cavity and the “classical”magnetotail found at stronger comets. Furthermore, the sensitivity ofthese various features in dependence on the plasma parameters is investigated.  相似文献   

Pelagic Nitrogen Cycling in Jiaozhou Bay, a Model Study I： the Conceptual Model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

任玲  张曼平  Brockmann Uwe H  冯士笮 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(4):358-367

A zero-dimensional box model (PNCMjzb) with six state variables (ammonium, nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus) was developed to study nitrogen cycling in the Jiaozhou Bay pelagic ecosystem. The dominant processes within these compartments are considered with nitrogen as flow currency. Phytoplankton and zooplankton are treated as separate state variables, assuming that the species composition was dominated by two or three species the dynamic constants of which are similar and that they represent the entire plankton community. The microbial loop has not been integrated explicitly in the model. The turnover of bacteria is included implicitly in processes such as detritus decomposition, DON remineralization, pelagic nitrification and denitrification. The model is driven by two forcing variables, viz. water temperature and light intensity. Historical data from the1980s and 1990s were compiled and used for model calibration. In this paper (part Ⅰ), the consideration of every main compartment in the model is interpreted in detail. And the applied equations and parameters are presented. The main results from the simulations together with discussion about phytoplankton dynamics and primary production in Jiaozhou Bay are presented in the next paper (part Ⅱ).  相似文献   

Major and trace element compositions of melt particles and associated phases from the Yaxcopoil‐1 drill core,Chicxulub impact structure,Mexico     

Martin G. TUCHSCHERER  W. Uwe REIMOLD  Roger L. GIBSON  Deon de BRUIN  Andreas SPTH 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2006,41(9):1361-1379

Abstract— Melt particles found at various depths in impactites from the Yaxcopoil‐1 borehole into the Chicxulub impact structure (Yucatán) have been analyzed for their major and trace element abundances. A total of 176 electron microprobe and 45 LA‐ICP‐MS analyses from eight different melt particles were investigated. The main purpose of this work was to constrain the compositions of precursor materials and secondary alteration characteristics of these melt particles. Individual melt particles are highly heterogeneous, which makes compositional categorization extremely difficult. Melt particles from the uppermost part of the impactite sequence are Ca‐ and Na‐depleted and show negative Ce anomalies, which is likely a result of seawater interaction. Various compositional groupings of melt particles are determined with ternary and binary element ratio plots involving major and trace elements. This helps distinguish the degree of alteration versus primary heterogeneity of melt phases. Comparison of the trace element ratios Sc/Zr, Y/Zr, Ba/Zr, Ba/Rb, and Sr/Rb with compositions of known target rocks provides some constraints on protolith compositions; however, the melt compositions analyzed exceed the known compositional diversity of possible target rocks. Normalized REE patterns are unique for each melt particle, likely reflecting precursor mineral or rock compositions. The various discrimination techniques indicate that the highly variable compositions are the products of melting of individual minerals or of mixtures of several minerals. Small, angular shards that are particularly abundant in units 2 and 3 represent rapidly quenched melts, whereas larger particles (>0.5 mm) that contain microlites and have fluidal, schlieric textures cooled over a protracted period. Angular, shard‐like particles with microlites in unit 5 likely crystallized below the glass transition temperature or underwent fragmentation during or after deposition.  相似文献   

Magmatic evolution of the Andean Eastern Cordillera of Colombia during the Cretaceous: Influence of previous tectonic processes     

Mónica Vásquez  Uwe Altenberger  Rolf L. Romer  Masafumi Sudo  Juan Manuel Moreno-Murillo 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2010,29(2):171-186

The Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes represents an inverted Cretaceous basin where Cretaceous magmatism is characterized by rare mafic dykes and sills. We use ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar, Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes, as well as major and trace elements analyses of Cretaceous intrusions from both flanks of the Eastern Cordillera in combination with structural data to document the complex evolution of the basin. Magmatism, which is diachronous and geochemically diverse, seems to be related to mantle melting beneath the most subsiding segments of each sub-basin during enhanced extensional tectonics. The mafic intrusions display two different compositional series: an alkaline one with OIB-like pattern and a tholeiitic one with MORB-like features. This indicates at least two diverse mantle sources. Trace-element patterns suggest that the intrusions were emplaced in an extensional setting. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating on primary plagioclase and hornblende provides plateau ages between ～136 and ～74 Ma.The geochemical and temporal diversities show that the emplacement of the magmas was tectonically controlled, each sub-basin reflecting an individual subsidence event.  相似文献   

A new magnetostratigraphic framework for the Lower Miocene (Burdigalian/Ottnangian, Karpatian) in the North Alpine Foreland Basin     

Bettina Reichenbacher  Wout Krijgsman  Yannick Lataster  Martina Pippèrr  Christiaan G. C. Van Baak  Liao Chang  Daniel Kälin  Jürg Jost  Gerhard Doppler  Dietmar Jung  Jérôme Prieto  Hayfaa Abdul Aziz  Madelaine Böhme  Jennifer Garnish  Uwe Kirscher  Valerian Bachtadse 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2013,106(2):309-334

Oligocene–Miocene chronostratigraphic correlations within the Paratethys domain are still highly controversial. This study focuses on the late Early Miocene of the Swiss and S-German Molasse Basin (Late Burdigalian, Ottnangian–Karpatian). Previous studies have published different chronologies for this time interval that is represented by the biostratigraphically well constrained Upper Marine Molasse (OMM, lower and middle Ottnangian), Upper Brackish Molasse (OBM, Grimmelfingen and Kirchberg Formations, middle and upper Ottnangian to lower Karpatian, MN 4a–MN 4b) and Upper Freshwater Molasse (OSM, Karpatian–Badenian, MN 5). Here, we suggest a new chronostratigraphic framework, based on integrated magneto-litho-biostratigraphic studies on four sections and three boreholes. Our data indicate that the OBM comprises chrons 5D.1r and 5Dn (Grimmelfingen Fm), chron 5Cr (lower Kirchberg Fm) and the oldest part of chron 5Cn.3n (upper Kirchberg Fm). The OSM begins during chron 5Cn.3n, continues through 5Cn, and includes a long reversed segment that can be correlated to chron 5Br. The OMM-OSM transition was completed at 16.0 Ma in the Swiss Molasse Basin, while the OBM-OSM changeover ended at 16.6 Ma in the S-German Molasse Basin. As the lower Kirchberg Fm represents a facies of the Ottnangian, our data suggest that the Ottnangian–Karpatian boundary in the Molasse Basin is approximately at 16.8 Ma, close to the 5Cr–5Cn.3n magnetic reversal, and thus 0.4 Myr younger than the inferred age of 17.2 Ma used in recent Paratethys time scales. Notably, this would not be problematic for the Paratethys stratigraphy, because chron 5Cr is mainly represented by a sedimentation gap in the Central Paratethys. We also realise, however, that additional data is still required to definitely solve the age debate concerning this intriguing time interval in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. We dedicate this work to our dear friend and colleague Jean-Pierre Berger (8 July 1956–18 January 2012).  相似文献   

Five-coordinate Cd in the crystal structure of triploidite-type Cd2(AsO4)(OH)     

Tamara Ðorđević  Uwe Kolitsch 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(2):243-251

This paper reports on hydrothermal synthesis and crystal structure refinement of dicadmium arsenate hydroxide, Cd₂(AsO₄)(OH), obtained at 220 °C and autogenous pressure. Its crystal structure is monoclinic, space group P2₁/a, with a = 13.097(3), b = 14.089(3), c = 10.566(2) Å, β = 108.38(3)°, V = 1850.2(6) ų (Z = 16). It is isotypic with the members of the triploidite group of minerals and synthetic compounds, and thus shows a close topological relationship with the triplite group. The complex framework contains edge- and corner-sharing CdO₄(OH) and CdO₄(OH)₂ polyhedra, linked via corner-sharing to AsO₄ tetrahedra (average As—O distances range between 1.682 and 1.688 Å). Four five-coordinated Cd sites are at the centers of distorted trigonal bipyramids (average Cd—O distances are between 2.225 and 2.251 Å), whereas the remaining four Cd sites have a distorted octahedral coordination environment (average Cd—O distances are between 2.297 and 2.320 Å). The positions of all the hydrogen atoms were located in a difference-Fourier map and refined with an isotropic displacement parameter. The hydrogen-bonds are weak to very weak. The unusual five-coordination of Cd is briefly discussed in relation to comparable minerals and compounds. Among triploidite-type compounds, Cd₂(AsO₄)(OH) is the member with the largest unit cell reported so far, and the second known arsenate member.  相似文献   

Using Java for distributed computing in the Gaia satellite data processing     

William O’Mullane  Xavier Luri  Paul Parsons  Uwe Lammers  John Hoar  Jose Hernandez 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,31(2-3):243-258

In recent years Java has matured to a stable easy-to-use language with the flexibility of an interpreter (for reflection etc.) but the performance and type checking of a compiled language. When we started using Java for astronomical applications around 1999 they were the first of their kind in astronomy. Now a great deal of astronomy software is written in Java as are many business applications. We discuss the current environment and trends concerning the language and present an actual example of scientific use of Java for high-performance distributed computing: ESA’s mission Gaia. The Gaia scanning satellite will perform a galactic census of about 1,000 million objects in our galaxy. The Gaia community has chosen to write its processing software in Java. We explore the manifold reasons for choosing Java for this large science collaboration. Gaia processing is numerically complex but highly distributable, some parts being embarrassingly parallel. We describe the Gaia processing architecture and its realisation in Java. We delve into the astrometric solution which is the most advanced and most complex part of the processing. The Gaia simulator is also written in Java and is the most mature code in the system. This has been successfully running since about 2005 on the supercomputer “Marenostrum” in Barcelona. We relate experiences of using Java on a large shared machine. Finally we discuss Java, including some of its problems, for scientific computing.  相似文献