Probabilistic seismic hazard model for Cairo,Egypt: estimates and uncertainties     

Ashraf Adly  Laurentiu Danciu  Donat Fäh  Valerio Poggi  Awad Omran  Awad Hassoup 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5697-5733

A new seismic hazard model for Cairo, the capital city of Egypt is developed herein based on comprehensive consideration of uncertainties in various components of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The proposed seismic hazard model is developed from an updated catalogue of historical and instrumental seismicity, geodetic strain rates derived from GPS-based velocity-field of the crust, and the geologic slip rates of active faults. The seismic source model consists of area sources and active faults characterised to forecast the seismic productivity in the region. Ground motion prediction models are selected to describe the expected ground motion at the sites of interest. The model accounts for inherent epistemic uncertainties of statistical earthquake recurrence; maximum magnitude; ground motion prediction models, and their propagation toward the obtained results. The proposed model is applied to a site-specific hazard analysis for Kottamiya, Rehab City and Zahraa-Madinat-Nasr (hereinafter referred to as Zahraa) to the East of Cairo (Egypt). The site-specific analysis accounts for the site response, through the parameterization of the sites in terms of average 30-m shear-wave velocity (Vs30). The present seismic hazard model can be considered as a reference model for earthquake risk mitigation and proper resilience planning.  相似文献   

Season‐based rainfall–runoff modelling using the probability‐distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil          下载免费PDF全文

Rong Zhang  Luz Adriana Cuartas  Luiz Valerio de Castro Carvalho  Karinne Reis Deusdará Leal  Eduardo Mário Mendiondo  Narumi Abe  Stephen Birkinshaw  Guilherme Samprogna Mohor  Marcelo Enrique Seluchi  Carlos Afonso Nobre 《水文研究》2018,32(14):2217-2230

Southeastern Brazil is characterized by seasonal rainfall variability. This can have a great social, economic, and environmental impact due to both excessive and deficient water availability. During 2014 and 2015, the region experienced one of the most severe droughts since 1960. The resulting water crisis has seriously affected water supply to the metropolitan region of São Paulo and hydroelectric power generation throughout the entire country. This research considered the upstream basins of the southeastern Brazilian reservoirs Cantareira (2,279 km²; water supply) and Emborcação (29,076 km²), Três Marias (51,576 km²), Furnas (52,197 km²), and Mascarenhas (71,649 km²; hydropower) for hydrological modelling. It made the first attempt at configuring a season‐based probability‐distributed model (PDM‐CEMADEN) for simulating different hydrological processes during wet and dry seasons. The model successfully reproduced the intra‐annual and interannual variability of the upstream inflows during 1985–2015. The performance of the model was very satisfactory not only during the wet, dry, and transitional seasons separately but also during the whole period. The best performance was obtained for the upstream basin of Furnas, as it had the highest quality daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and logarithmic Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.92 and 0.93 for the calibration period 1984–2001, 0.87 and 0.88 for the validation period 2001–2010, and 0.93 and 0.90 for the validation period 2010–2015, respectively. Results indicated that during the wet season, the upstream basins have a larger capacity and variation of soil water storage, a larger soil water conductivity, and quicker surface water flow than during the dry season. The added complexity of configuring a season‐based PDM‐CEMADEN relative to the traditional model is well justified by its capacity to better reproduce initial conditions for hydrological forecasting and prediction. The PDM‐CEMADEN is a simple, efficient, and easy‐to‐use model, and it will facilitate early decision making and implement adaptation measures relating to disaster prevention for reservoirs with large‐sized upstream basins.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Mixing-Height Retrievals from Automatic Profiling Lidars and Ceilometers in View of Future Integrated Networks in Europe   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. Haeffelin  F. Angelini  Y. Morille  G. Martucci  S. Frey  G. P. Gobbi  S. Lolli  C. D. O’Dowd  L. Sauvage  I. Xueref-Rémy  B. Wastine  D. G. Feist 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2012,143(1):49-75

The determination of the depth of daytime and nighttime mixing layers must be known very accurately to relate boundary-layer concentrations of gases or particles to upstream fluxes. The mixing-height is parametrized in numerical weather prediction models, so improving the determination of the mixing height will improve the quality of the estimated gas and particle budgets. Datasets of mixing-height diurnal cycles with high temporal and spatial resolutions are sought by various end users. Lidars and ceilometers provide vertical profiles of backscatter from aerosol particles. As aerosols are predominantly concentrated in the mixing layer, lidar backscatter profiles can be used to trace the depth of the mixing layer. Large numbers of automatic profiling lidars and ceilometers are deployed by meteorological services and other agencies in several European countries providing systems to monitor the mixing height on temporal and spatial scales of unprecedented density. We investigate limitations and capabilities of existing mixing height retrieval algorithms by applying five different retrieval techniques to three different lidars and ceilometers deployed during two 1-month campaigns. We studied three important steps in the mixing height retrieval process, namely the lidar/ceilometer pre-processing to reach sufficient signal-to-noise ratio, gradient detection techniques to find the significant aerosol gradients, and finally quality control and layer attribution to identify the actual mixing height from multiple possible layer detections. We found that layer attribution is by far the most uncertain step. We tested different gradient detection techniques, and found no evidence that the first derivative, wavelet transform, and two-dimensional derivative techniques have different skills to detect one or multiple significant aerosol gradients from lidar and ceilometer attenuated backscatter. However, our study shows that, when mixing height retrievals from a ultraviolet lidar and a near-infrared ceilometer agreed, they were 25?C40% more likely to agree with an independent radiosonde mixing height retrieval than when each lidar or ceilometer was used alone. Furthermore, we point to directions that may assist the layer attribution step, for instance using commonly available surface measurements of radiation and temperature to derive surface sensible heat fluxes as a proxy for the intensity of convective mixing. It is a worthwhile effort to pursue such studies so that within a few years automatic profiling lidar and ceilometer networks can be utilized efficiently to monitor mixing heights at the European scale.  相似文献   

Fractal characterization of rain-gauge networks and precipitations: an application in Central Italy     

Valerio Capecchi  Alfonso Crisci  Samantha Melani  Marco Morabito  Paolo Politi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):541-546

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“Galileo Galilei” (GG) a small satellite to test the equivalence principle of Galileo, Newton and Einstein     

Anna M. Nobili  Gian Luca Comandi  Suresh Doravari  Donato Bramanti  Rajeev Kumar  Francesco Maccarrone  Erseo Polacco  Slava G. Turyshev  Michael Shao  John Lipa  Hansjoerg Dittus  Claus Laemmerzhal  Achim Peters  Jurgen Mueller  C. S. Unnikrishnan  Ian W. Roxburgh  Alain Brillet  Christian Marchal  Jun Luo  Jozef van der Ha  Vadim Milyukov  Valerio Iafolla  David Lucchesi  Paolo Tortora  Paolo De Bernardis  Federico Palmonari  Sergio Focardi  Dino Zanello  Salvatore Monaco  Giovanni Mengali  Luciano Anselmo  Lorenzo Iorio  Zoran Knezevic 《Experimental Astronomy》2009,23(2):689-710

“Galileo Galilei” (GG) is a small satellite designed to fly in low Earth orbit with the goal of testing the Equivalence Principle—which is at the basis of the General Theory of Relativity—to 1 part in 10¹⁷. If successful, it would improve current laboratory results by 4 orders of magnitude. A confirmation would strongly constrain theories; proof of violation is believed to lead to a scientific revolution. The experiment design allows it to be carried out at ambient temperature inside a small 1-axis stabilized satellite (250 kg total mass). GG is under investigation at Phase A-2 level by ASI (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana) at Thales Alenia Space in Torino, while a laboratory prototype (known as GGG) is operational at INFN laboratories in Pisa, supported by INFN (Istituto Nazionale di fisica Nucleare) and ASI. A final study report will be published in 2009.  相似文献   

First evidence of altered vitellogenin-like protein levels in clam Tapes philippinarum and in cockle Cerastoderma glaucum from the Lagoon of Venice     

Matozzo V  Marin MG 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(10-12):494-504

Possible xenoestrogenic effects were investigated, for the first time, in two bivalve species from the Lagoon of Venice (Italy): the clam Tapes philippinarum and the cockle Cerastoderma glaucum. Bivalves were collected far from their reproductive phase at the very early stage of gametogenesis (January), and in the pre-spawning period (June) in six sites. Vitellogenin (Vg)-like proteins (a biomarker of exposure to estrogenic compounds) were measured by the alkali-labile phosphate method (ALP), in both haemolymph and digestive gland from males and females (when it was possible to distinguish sex by microscopic observation of gonadal tissue). Haemolymph calcium concentrations (a parameter considered closely related to the presence of Vg-like proteins) and the bivalve condition index (CI) were also measured. In both seasons, bivalves collected at Campalto (near a sewage treatment plant) and Marghera (a highly contaminated area) had higher Vg-like protein levels, particularly in haemolymph, than animals from the other sampling sites. Interestingly, CI had high values in these polluted sites. In June only, Vg-like proteins and Ca(2+) levels in haemolymph exhibited similar trends in both bivalve species at most sampling sites. The responsiveness of bivalves to environmental xenoestrogens was higher in June, allowing better discrimination among sites. The present study demonstrates that animals from highly polluted areas have increased Vg-like protein levels. As endocrine disruption due to exposure to estrogenic compounds may cause fertility reduction, alterations in the sex ratio, and a decrease in reproductive rate, a condition of potential risk for bivalve populations in estuarine areas is highlighted.  相似文献   

Parametric Study of Urban-Like Topographic Statistical Moments Relevant to a Priori Modelling of Bulk Aerodynamic Parameters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Xiaowei Zhu  G. Valerio Iungo  Stefano Leonardi  William Anderson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,162(2):231-253

For a horizontally homogeneous, neutrally stratified atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), aerodynamic roughness length, \(z_0\), is the effective elevation at which the streamwise component of mean velocity is zero. A priori prediction of \(z_0\) based on topographic attributes remains an open line of inquiry in planetary boundary-layer research. Urban topographies – the topic of this study – exhibit spatial heterogeneities associated with variability of building height, width, and proximity with adjacent buildings; such variability renders a priori, prognostic \(z_0\) models appealing. Here, large-eddy simulation (LES) has been used in an extensive parametric study to characterize the ABL response (and \(z_0\)) to a range of synthetic, urban-like topographies wherein statistical moments of the topography have been systematically varied. Using LES results, we determined the hierarchical influence of topographic moments relevant to setting \(z_0\). We demonstrate that standard deviation and skewness are important, while kurtosis is negligible. This finding is reconciled with a model recently proposed by Flack and Schultz (J Fluids Eng 132:041203-1–041203-10, 2010), who demonstrate that \(z_0\) can be modelled with standard deviation and skewness, and two empirical coefficients (one for each moment). We find that the empirical coefficient related to skewness is not constant, but exhibits a dependence on standard deviation over certain ranges. For idealized, quasi-uniform cubic topographies and for complex, fully random urban-like topographies, we demonstrate strong performance of the generalized Flack and Schultz model against contemporary roughness correlations.  相似文献   

Centropages typicus (Crustacea,Copepoda) reacts to volatile compounds produced by planktonic algae          下载免费PDF全文

Chingoileima Maibam  Patrick Fink  Giovanna Romano  Maria Cristina Buia  Emanuela Butera  Valerio Zupo 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):819-834

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) may play the role of infochemicals and trigger chemotaxis and ecologically relevant responses in freshwater and marine invertebrates. Aquatic grazers use these signals as chemical cues to trace the presence of their food or to detect their predators. However, detailed data are still needed to fully understand the role of these relationships in marine plankton. We investigated the ability of the copepod Centropages typicus to perceive the odour of three planktonic diatoms (Skeletonema marinoi, Pseudonitzschia delicatissima and Chaetoceros affinis) and a dinoflagellate (Prorocentrum minimum). This information is ecologically relevant for orientation, habitat selection, predator avoidance and communication. In addition, as the pH of the medium influences the perception of chemical cues in aquatic environments, we tested the effect of seawater acidification resulting from increasing levels of CO₂, and its influences on the olfactory reactions of copepods. For this reason, our tests were repeated in normal (pH 8.10) and acidified (pH 7.76) seawater in order to simulate future ocean acidification scenarios. Using replicated chemokinetic assays we demonstrated that VOCs produced by Ps. delicatissima and Pr. minimum attract copepods at normal pH, but this effect is lowered in acidified water. By contrast, the odour of S. marinoi mainly induces a reaction of repulsion, but in acidified water and at higher concentrations this toxic diatom becomes attractive for copepods. Our experiments demonstrate, for the first time, that copepods are sensitive to the volatile compounds contained in various microalgae; VOCs prompt chemokinesis according to algal species and odour concentrations. However, seawater acidification induces changes in copepods' perception of odours. These findings highlight the sensitivity of chemically mediated interactions to global changes  相似文献   

Hydrological regimes in different slope environments and implications on rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides     

Fusco  Francesco  Bordoni  Massimiliano  Tufano  Rita  Vivaldi  Valerio  Meisina  Claudia  Valentino  Roberto  Bittelli  Marco  De Vita  Pantaleone 《Natural Hazards》2022,114(1):907-939

Natural Hazards - Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based...  相似文献   

In situ monitoring of the groundwater field in an unsaturated pyroclastic slope for slope stability evaluation   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Marianna Pirone  Raffaele Papa  Marco Valerio Nicotera  Gianfranco Urciuoli 《Landslides》2015,12(2):259-276

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