Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging     

Nils-Otto Kitterr?d  Lars Gottschalk 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1997,11(6):459-482

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.  相似文献   

任意圆弧形凸起地形中隧洞对入射平面SH波的影响   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

梁建文  罗昊  Vincent W.Lee 《地震学报》2004,26(5):495-508

借助辅助函数的思想， 采用波函数展开法给出了圆弧形凸起地形中隧洞对入射平面SH波影响问题的一个解析解．数值结果表明，凸起地形中隧洞的存在以及隧洞大小，对凸起地形表面运动，以及凸起地形中的隧洞的动应力集中均具有显著影响．   相似文献   

Long term variations in the mesospheric mean flow observed at Grahamstown (South Africa) and Adelaide (Australia)     

S.B. Malinga  L.M.G. Poole  R.A. Vincent 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2004,66(18):1745

The seasonal and interannual behaviour of monthly mean winds at a height of 90 km recorded at Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E) and Adelaide (34.5°S, 138.5°E) between 1987 and 1994 are compared. The zonal wind is found to be consistently stronger at Grahamstown and is always eastward, whereas at Adelaide it sometimes reverses. Maxima tend to occur near the solstices, the primary maximum during summer at Grahamstown, in agreement with satellite results, and during winter at Adelaide. The meridional wind also tends to be stronger at Grahamstown, but at both stations is predominantly northward with a maximum in summer and generally not as strong as the zonal component. This seasonal behaviour is reasonably well understood in terms of the interaction of the mean flow with gravity waves propagating up from below, with coriolis forces also playing an important role in the case of the meridional wind. Satellite observations do not generally support the idea that longitudinal differences between the stations could be attributed to the presence of a tropospheric/stratospheric stationary wave. It is suggested that these differences are more probably associated with local effects. Interannual zonal wind patterns at the two sites are similar over the summer months but are less well correlated during the rest of the year. The underlying causes of this variability are not well understood but are most probably global in nature, at least during the summer.  相似文献   

Structure and tectonics of convergent plate margins     

Aleš Špi?ák  Ond?ej ?adek  E.Robert Engdahl 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2004,141(4):241

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Influence of the zone of weakness on dip angle and shear heating of subducted slabs     

Martin Kuka?ka  Ctirad Matyska 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2004,141(4):243-252

We study the importance of the zones of weakness and the pattern of downgoing flow in steady-state models of subducting lithosphere, which interacts mechanically and thermally with the ambient mantle. The non-linear system of governing equations consists of (i) the momentum equation in stream function formulation and (ii) the steady-state heat transfer equation including conduction and advection of heat and dissipation. A finite element method has been applied to this system. We consider the viscosity to be a non-linear function of both the temperature and the stream function. In steady-state two-dimensional (2D) flow, the stream function isolines follow material trajectories. They are used to follow the top of the subducting slab, which because of its possible increase in water content, is assumed to have a lower viscosity. The zone of weakness has been thus obtained in the self-consistent fashion since the stream function as well as the temperature are the output from our modeling and no a priori assumptions about the shape of the bending lithosphere are taken into account. It was shown that several orders decrease of viscosity in the zone of weakness is required to obtain the dip angle of about 45°. If the decrease of viscosity is not sufficient enough, the subducted slab either sinks almost vertically or does not exhibit a plate-like behavior. We have also demonstrated that shear heating can unrealistically increase at the zone of weakness for fast subductions if decrease of viscosity is underestimated.  相似文献   

A Modeling Study of the Effects of Anomalous Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian Summer Monsoon   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘华强  孙照渤王举 闵锦忠 《大气科学进展》2004,21(6):964-975

The effect of anomalous snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian summer monsoon is investigated by numerical simulations using the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM2) into which gravity wave drag has been introduced. The simulations adopt relatively realistic snow mass forcings based on Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SNINIR) pentad snow depth data. The physical mechanism and spatial structure of the sensitivity of the South Asian early summer monsoon to snow cover anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau are revealed. The main results are summarized as follows. The heavier than normal snow cover over the Plateau can obviously reduce the shortwave radiation absorbed by surface through the albedo effect, which is compensated by weaker upward sensible heat flux associated with colder surface temperature, whereas the effects of snow melting and evaporation are relatively smaller.The anomalies of surface heat fluxes can last until June and become unobvious in July. The decrease of the Plateau surface temperature caused by heavier snow cover reaches its maximum value from late April to early May. The atmospheric cooling in the mid-upper troposphere over the Plateau and its surrounding areas is most obvious in May and can keep a fairly strong intensity in June. In contrast, there is warming to the south of the Plateau in the mid-lower troposphere from April to June with a maximum value in May.The heavier snow cover over the Plateau can reduce the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon and rainfall to some extent, but this influence is only obvious in early summer and almost disappears in later stages.  相似文献   

The reflection of plane waves in a poroelastic half-space saturated with inviscid fluid   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

Chi-Hsin Lin  Vincent W. Lee  Mihailo D. Trifunac   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(3):205-223

This paper discusses surface displacements, surface strain, rocking, and energy partitioning during reflection-of-plane waves in a fluid-saturated poroelastic half-space. The medium is modeled by Biot's theory, and is assumed to be saturated with inviscid fluid. A linear porosity-modulus relation based on experimental data on sandstones is used to determine the material parameters for Biot's model. Numerical results in terms of angle of incident waves and Poisson's ratio are illustrated for various porosities and degrees of solid frame stiffness. The results show that the amount of solid frame stiffness controls the response of a fluid-saturated porous system. A poroelastic medium with essentially dry-frame stiffness behaves like an elastic medium, and the influence of pore fluid increases as dry-frame stiffness is reduced. The effects of a second P-wave become noticeable in poroelastic media with low dry-frame stiffness.  相似文献   

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion     

Eric Blanger  Alain Vincent 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,300(1-4):114-125

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity     

W. Neil Adger  Katharine Vincent 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):399-410

The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

Étude expérimentale de la réactivité du CO2 supercritique vis-à-vis de phases minérales pures. Implications pour la séquestration géologique de CO2     

Olivier Regnault  Vincent Lagneau  Hubert Catalette  Hélène Schneider 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(15):1331-1339

Carbon dioxide sequestration in deep aquifers and depleted oilfields is a potential technical solution for reducing green-house gas release to the atmosphere: the gas containment relies on several trapping mechanisms (supercritical CO₂, CO_2(sc), dissolution together with slow water flows, mineral trapping) and on a low permeability cap-rock to prevent CO_2(sc), which is less dense than the formation water, from leaking upwards. A leakproof cap-rock is thus essential to ensure the sequestration efficiency. It is also crucial for safety assessment to identify and assess potential alteration processes that may damage the cap-rock properties: chemical alteration, fracture reactivation, degradation of injection borehole seals, etc. The reactivity of the host-rock minerals with the supercritical CO₂ fluid is one of the potential mechanisms, but it is altogether unknown. Reactivity tests have been carried out under such conditions, consisting of batch reactions between pure minerals and anhydrous supercritical CO₂, or a two-phase CO₂/H₂O fluid at 200?°C and 105/160 bar. After 45 to 60 days, evidence of appreciable mineral-fluid reactivity was identified, including in the water-free experiments. For the mixed H₂O/CO₂ experiments, portlandite was totally transformed into calcite; anorthite displayed many dissolution patterns associated with calcite, aragonite, tridymite and smectite precipitations. For the anhydrous CO₂ experiments, portlandite was totally carbonated to form calcite and aragonite; anorthite also displayed surface alteration patterns with secondary precipitation of fibrous calcite. To cite this article: O. Regnault et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献