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621.
GCM-based forecast simulations predict continuously increasing seasonality of the sea ice cover and an almost ice-free, summer-time, Arctic Ocean within several decades from the present. In this study we use a primitive equation ocean model: NEMO, coupled with the sea ice model LIM2, to test the hypothesis that under such an increased range in seasonal ice cover the intensity of shelf-basin water exchange will significantly increase. We use the simulated results for the Laptev Sea from a global model run 1958–2007 and compare results for two years with anomalously high and low summer sea ice extents: 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. The shelf–basin fluxes of volume, heat and salt during specific seasons are evaluated and attributed to plausible driving processes, with particular attention to dense water cascading. Analyses of the model temperature distribution at the depth of the intermediate maximum, associated with Atlantic Water, have shown a marked increase of the amount of the local origin cold water in late winter 2007 in the region, where dense water typically appears as a result of its formation on the shelf and subsequent downslope leakage. Calculation of the shelf-basin exchange during March-May in both years confirmed a substantial increase (a factor of two) of fluxes in “ice-free” 2007 compared to the “icy” 1987. According to several past model studies, dense water production on Arctic shelves in winter driven by ice freezing and brine rejection is not likely to cease in a warmer climate, but rather to increase. There is also observational evidence that cascading in the seasonally ice covered seas (e.g. the Barents Sea) is much more efficient than it is in the permanently ice covered Arctic Ocean, which supports these model results. 相似文献
622.
Vladimir Lyakhovsky Amir Sagy Yuval Boneh Ze’ev Reches 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(11):3143-3157
Slip along faults generates wear products such as gouge layers and cataclasite zones that range in thickness from sub-millimeter to tens of meters. The properties of these zones apparently control fault strength and slip stability. Here we present a new model of wear in a three-body configuration that utilizes the damage rheology approach and considers the process as a microfracturing or damage front propagating from the gouge zone into the solid rock. The derivations for steady-state conditions lead to a scaling relation for the damage front velocity considered as the wear-rate. The model predicts that the wear-rate is a function of the shear-stress and may vanish when the shear-stress drops below the microfracturing strength of the fault host rock. The simulated results successfully fit the measured friction and wear during shear experiments along faults made of carbonate and tonalite. The model is also valid for relatively large confining pressures, small damage-induced change of the bulk modulus and significant degradation of the shear modulus, which are assumed for seismogenic zones of earthquake faults. The presented formulation indicates that wear dynamics in brittle materials in general and in natural faults in particular can be understood by the concept of a “propagating damage front” and the evolution of a third-body layer. 相似文献
623.
Relatively short-term correlation among deformation,degassing, and seismicity: a case study from Concepción volcano,Nicaragua 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
José Armando Saballos Vladimir Conde Rocco Malservisi Charles B. Connor Julio Álvarez Angélica Muñoz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(8):1-11
Concepción is a frequently active composite volcano in Nicaragua, and is located on Ometepe Island, within Lake Nicaragua. Significant eruptive activity took place at this volcano between March and May 2010, consisting of ash and gas explosions (VEI 1–2). We compare geodetic baseline changes observed with global positioning system (GPS), sulfur dioxide flux (SO2), and seismic amplitude (SAM) data collected at Concepción during April – June, 2010, and February – April, 2011. Time series analysis reveals a remarkable correlation among the data sets during 2010, when the volcano was erupting. In contrast, the volcano was at its background level of activity in 2011 and the statistical correlation among the time series is not significant for this period. We explain the emergence of correlation among the time series during eruptive activity through modeling of the GPS data with emplacement of a magma column in an open conduit. In the model, magma rose in the conduit, between May 5 and 14, 2010, from a shallow reservoir located at ~ 1.8 km depth. Later, between May 24 and 31, 2010, the top of the magma column descended to almost 600 m depth, corresponding to the cessation of eruptive activity. Thus, cross-correlation and an integrated analysis of these geophysical time series on a timescale of days helps to reveal the dynamics of the magma plumbing system operating below Concepción volcano. 相似文献
624.
Distribution and changes of active layer thickness (ALT) and soil temperature (TTOP) in the source area of the Yellow River using the GIPL model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Active layer thickness (ALT) is critical to the understanding of the surface energy balance, hydrological cycles, plant growth, and cold region engineering projects in permafrost regions. The temperature at the bottom of the active layer, a boundary layer between the equilibrium thermal state (in permafrost below) and transient thermal state (in the atmosphere and surface canopies above), is an important parameter to reflect the existence and thermal stability of permafrost. In this study, the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Model (GIPL) was used to model the spatial distribution of and changes in ALT and soil temperature in the Source Area of the Yellow River (SAYR), where continuous, discontinuous, and sporadic permafrost coexists with seasonally frozen ground. Monthly air temperatures downscaled from the CRU TS3.0 datasets, monthly snow depth derived from the passive microwave remote-sensing data SMMR and SSM/I, and vegetation patterns and soil properties at scale of 1:1000000 were used as input data after modified with GIS techniques. The model validation was carried out carefully with ALT in the SAYR has significantly increased from 1.8 m in 1980 to 2.4 m in 2006 at an average rate of 2.2 cm yr?1. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer, or temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) rose substantially from ?1.1°C in 1980 to ?0.6°C in 2006 at an average rate of 0.018°C yr?1. The increasing rate of the ALT and TTOP has accelerated since 2000. Regional warming and degradation of permafrost has also occurred, and the changes in the areal extent of regions with a sub-zero TTOP shrank from 2.4×104 to 2.2×104 km2 at an average rate of 74 km2 yr?1. Changes of ALT and temperature have adversely affected the environmental stability in the SAYR. 相似文献
625.
626.
Irina V. Medvedeva Anatoly I. Semenov Vladimir I. Perminov Alexander B. Beletsky Andrey V. Tatarnikov 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(2):340-349
Data about the variations of mesopause temperature (~87 km) obtained from ground-based spectrographic measurements of the OH emission (834.0 nm, band (6-2)) at Irkutsk and Zvenigorod observatories were compared with satellite data on vertical temperature distribution in the atmosphere from Aura MLS v3.3. We analyzed MLS data for two geopotential height levels: 0.005 hPa (~84 km) and 0.002 hPa (~88 km) as the closest to OH height (~87 km). We revealed that Aura MLS temperature data have lower values than ground-based (cold bias). In summer periods, that difference increases. Aura cold biases compared with OH(6-2) at Irkutsk and Zvenigorod were calculated. For the 0.002 hPa height level, the biases are 10.1 and 9.4 K, and for 0.005 hPa they are 10.5 and 10.2 K at Irkutsk and Zvenigorod, respectively. When the bias is accounted for, an agreement between Aura MLS and OH(6-2) data obtained at both Irkutsk and Zvenigorod is remarkable. 相似文献
627.
Species of freshwater bryozoans are newly recognized in the fauna of aquatic invertebrates in Serbia. This first record includes a total of five species of class Phylactolaemata found at eight localities during limnological investigations in the period from 2002 to 2006. Four species are assigned to family Plumatellidae (Plumatella casmiana, P. emarginata, P. geimermassardi and Hyalinella punctata). Family Cristatellidae is represented by one species (Cristatella mucedo). The freshwater bryozoans in the form of intact colonies and especially as dormant bodies were identified to the species level. The identification was done using scanning electron microscopy, analyzing resting bodies’ morphological ultrastructure. 相似文献
628.
Davorin Penava Vladimir Sigmund Ivica Kožar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(10):2779-2804
An RC frame structure with masonry infill walls (“framed-masonry”) exposed to lateral loads acts as a composite structure. Numerical simulation of framed-masonry is difficult and generally unreliable due to many difficulties and uncertainties in its modelling. In this paper, we reviewed the usability of an advanced non-linear FEM computer program to accurately predict the behaviour of framed-masonry elements when exposed to cyclic lateral loading. Numerical results are validated against the test results of framed-masonry specimens, with and without openings. Initial simplified micromodels were calibrated by adjustment of the input parameters within the physically justifiable borders, in order to obtain the best correlation between the experimental and numerical results. It has been shown that the use of simplified micromodels for the investigation of composite masonry-infilled RC frames requires in-depth knowledge and engineering judgement in order to be used with confidence. Modelling problems were identified and explained in detail, which in turn offer an insight to practising engineers on how to deal with them. 相似文献
629.
Lucie Novakova Milan Broz Jiri Zaruba Karel Sosna Jan Najser Lenka Rukavickova Jan Franek Vladimir Rudajev 《应用地球物理》2016,13(2):315-325
Underground storage systems are currently being used worldwide for the geological storage of natural gas (CH4), the geological disposal of CO2, in geothermal energy, or radioactive waste disposal. We introduce a complex approach to the risks posed by induced bedrock instabilities in deep geological underground storage sites. Bedrock instability owing to underground openings has been studied and discussed for many years. The Bohemian Massif in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) is geologically and tectonically complex. However, this setting is ideal for learning about the instability state of rock masses. Longterm geological and mining studies, natural and induced seismicity, radon emanations, and granite properties as potential storage sites for disposal of radioactive waste in the Czech Republic have provided useful information. In addition, the Czech Republic, with an average concentration radon of 140 Bq m?3, has the highest average radon concentrations in the world. Bedrock instabilities might emerge from microscale features, such as grain size and mineral orientation, and microfracturing. Any underground storage facility construction has to consider the stored substance and the geological settings. In the Czech Republic, granites and granitoids are the best underground storage sites. Microcrack networks and migration properties are rock specific and vary considerably. Moreover, the matrix porosity also affects the mechanical properties of the rocks. Any underground storage site has to be selected carefully. The authors suggest to study the complex set of parameters from micro to macroscale for a particular place and type of rock to ensure that the storage remains safe and stable during construction, operation, and after closure. 相似文献
630.