Dating climatic episodes of the Holocene   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Wayne M. Wendland  Reid A. Bryson 《Quaternary Research》1974,4(1):9-24

Monitoring evidence indicates that the Holocene embraced a sequence of rather discrete climatic episodes. The transitions between these environmental episodes apparently were abrupt and globally synchronous. This paper reports on statistical analyses of radiocarbon dates associated with environmental change and cultural change.Over 800 ¹⁴C dates associated with pollen maxima and minima, sea level maxima and minima, and top and bottom surfaces of peat beds were simultaneously analyzed to identify times of globally synchronous environmental discontinuities.Some 3700 ¹⁴C dates associated with 155 cultural continua of the world were collectively analyzed to identify worldwide synchroneities in appearance and termination of the cultures.Significant globally synchronous discontinuities were identified in each independent analysis. The dates of environmental and cultural discontinuities are rather similar, particularly during the recent half of the Holocene. The fact that the cultural discontinuities mostly follow rather closely those of the paleobotanical record suggests that there has been a distinct climatic impact on the cultural history of man.  相似文献   

Assessing the effect of domain size over the Caribbean region using the PRECIS regional climate model     

Abel Centella-Artola  Michael A. Taylor  Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot  Daniel Martinez-Castro  Jayaka D. Campbell  Tannecia S. Stephenson  Alejandro Vichot 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(7-8):1901-1918

This study investigates the sensitivity of the one-way nested PRECIS regional climate model (RCM) to domain size for the Caribbean region. Simulated regional rainfall patterns from experiments using three domains with horizontal resolution of 50 km are compared with ERA reanalysis and observed datasets to determine if there is an optimal RCM configuration with respect to domain size and the ability to reproduce important observed climate features in the Caribbean. Results are presented for the early wet season (May–July) and late wet season (August–October). There is a relative insensitivity to domain size for simulating some important features of the regional circulation and key rainfall characteristics e.g. the Caribbean low level jet and the mid summer drought (MSD). The downscaled precipitation has a systematically negative precipitation bias, even when the domain was extended to the African coast to better represent circulation associated with easterly waves and tropical cyclones. The implications for optimizing modelling efforts within resource-limited regions like the Caribbean are discussed especially in the context of the region’s participation in global initiatives such as CORDEX.  相似文献   

Adaptation to climate change in glaciated mountain regions     

Graham McDowell  Eleanor Stephenson  James Ford 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):77-91

Understanding of the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in glaciated mountain regions is limited by a deficit in systematically collated information on where, to what stressors, by whom, at what scale, and with what effect adaptation is occurring. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the recent English language peer-reviewed scholarship on adaptation in glaciated mountain regions. 4050 potentially relevant articles were examined, with 36 included for full review. Results indicate that scholarly investigation into adaptation in glaciated mountains is presently limited to only 40 % of countries with alpine glaciation. Seventy-four discrete adaptation initiatives were identified, with most occurring in Peru (28 %), Nepal (22 %) and India (17 %). Many documented adaptations were initiated in response to intersecting stressors related to cryospheric change and socio-economic development; were autonomous and initiated in reaction to experienced climatic stimuli; and were carried out at the individual, family, or community scale. The study contributes to an emerging literature tracking on-the-ground adaptation processes and outcomes, and identifies a need to raise the profile of human adaptation in glaciated mountain regions within the HDCC scholarship. A research agenda for addressing key knowledge gaps and questions is developed, providing a framework for future investigation.  相似文献   

The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Er Lu  Wenyue Cai  Zhihong Jiang  Qiang Zhang  Cunjie Zhang  R. Wayne Higgins  Michael S. Halpert 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):1-9

Dry/wet condition has a large interannual variability. Decision-makers need to know the onset, duration, and intensity of drought, and require droughts be monitored at a daily to weekly scale. However, previous tools cannot monitor drought well at this short timescale. The Palmer Drought Severity Index has been found dissatisfactory in monitoring because of its complexity and numerous limitations. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) always asks for a timescale, and precipitation is averaged over the period of the scale. Because of this, the SPI cannot be used for short scales, e.g., several days, and what it tells is the overall drought situation of the period. The weighted average of precipitation (WAP) developed by Lu (Geophys Res Lett 36:L12707, 2009) overcomes the deficiency of the SPI; it does not require a timescale, and can provide the drought (and flood) extent of each day. Therefore, the WAP can monitor drought at scales from daily to weekly, monthly, and any longer scale, and is really “flexible and versatile for all timescales”. In this study, the standardized WAP (SWAP) is used to monitor the 2011 drought over China. Drought swept the country during the year from north to south and from east to west. In spring, a once-in-a-fifty-year drought occurred over the Yangtze River basin and the southern region, causing serious shortage of drinking water for people and livestock, as well as tremendous losses in agriculture and the shipping industry. Results show that the SWAP, with its monthly mean plots, can well reproduce the seasonal shift of the 2011 drought across the country. The animation of daily plots demonstrates that the SWAP would have been able to monitor the day-to-day variation of the spring drought around the Yangtze River basin. It can provide the details of the drought, such as when the drought emerged over the region, how long it maintained there (though drought area may move back and forth with extension and contraction of the area), and when the drought relieved over the basin.  相似文献   

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?     

Lester Kwiatkowski  Paul R. Halloran  Peter J. Mumby  David B. Stephenson 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(5-6):1483-1496

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.  相似文献   

Fluxes of inorganic carbon from two forested catchments in the Appalachian mountains     

Fred Worrall  Wayne T. Swank  Tim Burt 《水文研究》2005,19(15):3021-3035

This study uses long‐term records of stream chemistry, discharge and air temperature from two neighbouring forested catchments in the southern Appalachians in order to calculate production of dissolved CO₂ and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). One of the pair of catchments was clear‐felled during the period of the study. The study shows that: (1) areal production rates of both dissolved CO₂ and DIC are similar between the two catchments even during and immediately after the period of clear‐felling; (2) flux of total inorganic carbon (dissolved CO₂+ DIC) rises dramatically in response to a catchment‐wide acidification event; (3) DIC and dissolved CO₂ are dominantly released on the old water portion of the discharge and concentrations peak in the early autumn when flows in the study catchments are at their lowest; (4) total fluvial carbon flux from the clear‐felled catchment is 11·6 t km⁻² year⁻¹ and for the control catchment is 11·4 t km⁻² year⁻¹. The total inorganic carbon flux represents 69% of the total fluvial carbon flux. The method presented in the study provides a useful way of estimating inorganic carbon flux from a catchment without detailed gas monitoring. The time series of dissolved CO₂ at emergence to the stream can also be a proxy for the soil flux of CO₂. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ACE‐2 multiple angle micro‐pulse lidar observations from Las Galletas, Tenerife, Canary Islands     

Donna M. Powell  John A. Reagan  Manuel A. Rubio  Wayne H. Erxleben  James D. Spinhirne 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2000,52(2):652-661

Multiple‐angle micro‐pulse lidar (MPL) observations were made at Las Galletas on Tenerife, Canary Islands during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment‐2 (ACE‐2) conducted June–July, 1997. A principal objective of the MPL observations was to characterize the temporal/spatial distributions of aerosols in the region, particularly to identify and profile elevated Saharan dust layers which occur intermittently during the June–July time period. Vertical and slant angle measurements taken 16 and 17 July characterize such an occurrence, providing aerosol backscatter, extinction, and optical depth profiles of the dust layer between 1 and 5 km above mean sea level (MSL). Additionally, horizontal measurements taken in Las Galletas throughout the 6‐week period provide a time profile of the varying aerosol extinction at the surface. This profile exhibits the alternating periods of clean maritime air and pollution outbreaks that typified the region. Horizontal measurements also provide some evidence suggesting the possible influx of Saharan dust from the free troposphere to the surface. This paper presents estimates of aerosol optical properties retrieved from the multi‐angle MPL measurements in addition to an outline of the methodologies employed to obtain these results.  相似文献   

LATENT MIGRATION POTENTIAL AND SPACE PREFERENCES     

Wayne K. D. Davies 《The Professional geographer》1966,18(5):300-304

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Oxygen and sulfur isotope systematics of sulfate produced by bacterial and abiotic oxidation of pyrite   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Nurgul Balci  Wayne C. Shanks III  Kevin W. Mandernack 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(15):3796-3811

To better understand reaction pathways of pyrite oxidation and biogeochemical controls on δ¹⁸O and δ³⁴S values of the generated sulfate in acid mine drainage (AMD) and other natural environments, we conducted a series of pyrite oxidation experiments in the laboratory. Our biological and abiotic experiments were conducted under aerobic conditions by using O₂ as an oxidizing agent and under anaerobic conditions by using dissolved Fe(III)_aq as an oxidant with varying δ¹⁸O_H2O values in the presence and absence of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans. In addition, aerobic biological experiments were designed as short- and long-term experiments where the final pH was controlled at ∼2.7 and 2.2, respectively. Due to the slower kinetics of abiotic sulfide oxidation, the aerobic abiotic experiments were only conducted as long term with a final pH of ∼2.7. The δ³⁴S_SO4 values from both the biological and abiotic anaerobic experiments indicated a small but significant sulfur isotope fractionation (∼−0.7‰) in contrast to no significant fractionation observed from any of the aerobic experiments. Relative percentages of the incorporation of water-derived oxygen and dissolved oxygen (O₂) to sulfate were estimated, in addition to the oxygen isotope fractionation between sulfate and water, and dissolved oxygen. As expected, during the biological and abiotic anaerobic experiments all of the sulfate oxygen was derived from water. The percentage incorporation of water-derived oxygen into sulfate during the oxidation experiments by O₂ varied with longer incubation and lower pH, but not due to the presence or absence of bacteria. These percentages were estimated as 85%, 92% and 87% from the short-term biological, long-term biological and abiotic control experiments, respectively. An oxygen isotope fractionation effect between sulfate and water (ε¹⁸O_SO4-H2O) of ∼3.5‰ was determined for the anaerobic (biological and abiotic) experiments. This measured value was then used to estimate the oxygen isotope fractionation effects between sulfate and dissolved oxygen in the aerobic experiments which were −10.0‰, −10.8‰, and −9.8‰ for the short-term biological, long-term biological and abiotic control experiments, respectively. Based on the similarity between δ¹⁸O_SO4 values in the biological and abiotic experiments, it is suggested that δ¹⁸O_SO4 values cannot be used to distinguish biological and abiotic mechanisms of pyrite oxidation. The results presented here suggest that Fe(III)_aq is the primary oxidant for pyrite at pH < 3, even in the presence of dissolved oxygen, and that the main oxygen source of sulfate is water-oxygen under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions.  相似文献   

A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability     

Christopher P. Burgess  Michael A. Taylor  Tannecia Stephenson  Arpita Mandal  Leiska Powell 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):231-256

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.  相似文献