Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios     

Deniz Bozkurt  Maisa Rojas  Juan Pablo Boisier  Jonás Valdivieso 《Climatic change》2018,150(3-4):131-147

This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (～ 30–40° S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of ～ + 1.2 °C (RCP2.6), ～ +?3.5 °C (RCP8.5) and drying of ～ ? 3% (RCP2.6), ～ ? 30% (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40% by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35–45% by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75–85%) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5.  相似文献   

Towards modelling of evacuation behavior and planning for emergency logistics due to the Philippine Taal Volcanic eruption in 2020     

Lim  Hector R.  Lim  Ma. Bernadeth B.  Rojas  Ann Wendy M. 《Natural Hazards》2022,114(1):553-581

Natural Hazards - Emergency evacuation is the immediate escape of people away from a place of an imminent threat to a place of safety. The ability of the households to evacuate is a crucial...  相似文献   

Cycles in the scaling properties of length-of-day variations     

Jose Alvarez-Ramirez  Leonardo Dagdug  Gonzalo Rojas 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(2):105-110

Variations in the length-of-day (LOD) reflect the effects of several mechanisms in the Earth's rotation dynamics, including Earth–Sun and Earth–Moon line-up, geomagnetic effects and gravitational changes. Several studies showed that signatures of cycles occurring over a wide range of time scales are present in the LOD variations. The present work uses a fractal scaling study based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study persistence of LOD variations and to provide insights in the different cycling mechanisms. The results showed that that the LOD variations are persistent over a wide range of time scales, meaning that an increment (resp., decrement) is more likely to be followed by an increment (resp., decrement). The temporal variation of the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA showed that several cycles already reported from the direct LOD variations analysis are inherited by the scaling properties. Inter-annual cycles, including 4.3 and 18.6 years cycles, are linked to the variations of the stochastic dynamics of LOD fluctuations. In this way, the 18.6 years cycle attains a period where variations are mostly affected by white noise effects, reducing the predictability of the LOD anomalies. The results are discussed in terms of the different lunar tidal and core–mantle mechanisms and related to recent results in the literature.  相似文献   

A genetic algorithm for filter design to enhance features in seismic images     

M.G. Orozco‐del‐Castillo  C. Ortiz‐Alemán  J. Urrutia‐Fucugauchi  R. Martin  A. Rodriguez‐Castellanos  P.E. Villaseñor‐Rojas 《Geophysical Prospecting》2014,62(2):210-222

We present a novel method to enhance seismic data for manual and automatic interpretation. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize a kernel that, when convolved with the seismic image, appears to enhance the internal characteristics of salt bodies and the sub‐salt stratigraphy. The performance of the genetic algorithm was validated by the use of test images prior to its application on the seismic data. We present the evolution of the resulting kernel and its convolved image. This image was analysed by a seismic interpreter, highlighting possible advantages over the original one. The effects of the kernel were also subject to an automatic interpretation technique based on principal component analysis. Statistical comparison of these results with those from the original image, by means of the Mann‐Whitney U‐test, proved the convolved image to be more appropriate for automatic interpretation.  相似文献   

The 16 September 2015 Chile Tsunami from the Post-Tsunami Survey and Numerical Modeling Perspectives     

Rafael Aránguiz  Gabriel González  Juan González  Patricio A. Catalán  Rodrigo Cienfuegos  Yuji Yagi  Ryo Okuwaki  Luisa Urra  Karla Contreras  Ian Del Rio  Camilo Rojas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(2):333-348

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Healthy soils: a prerequisite for sustainable food security     

Ronald Vargas Rojas  Moujahed Achouri  Jerry Maroulis  Lucrezia Caon 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(3):180

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Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales,Australia     

Wilfredo Llacer Caballero  Ataur Rahman 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):1475-1488

The currently adopted rainfall-based design flood estimation method in Australia, known as design event approach (DEA), has a flaw that is widely criticized by the hydrologists. The DEA is based on the assumption that a rainfall depth of a certain frequency can be transformed to a flood peak of the same frequency by adopting the ‘representative values’ of other model input variables, such as temporal patterns and losses. To overcome the limitation associated with the DEA, this paper develops stochastic model inputs to apply Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) for design flood estimation. This uses data from 86 pluviograph stations and six catchments from eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to regionalize the distributions of various input variables (e.g., rainfall duration, inter-event duration, intensity and temporal patterns and loss and routing characteristics) to simulate thousands of flood hydrographs using a nonlinear runoff routing model. The regionalized stochastic inputs are then applied with the MCST to two catchments in eastern NSW. The results indicate that the developed MCST provide more accurate flood quantile estimates than the DEA for the two test catchments. The particular advantage of the new MCST and stochastic design input variables is that it reduces the subjectivity in the selection of model input values in flood modeling. The developed MCST can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.  相似文献   

Faulting, shallow seismicity and seismic hazard analysis for the Costa Rican Central Valley     

M. Fernndez  W. Rojas 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2000,20(1-4)

Faulting, shallow seismicity (0–30 km), and seismic hazard of the Costa Rican Central Valley were analyzed. Faults in the study area are oriented northwest or northeast. There is an active fault system in the south flank of the Central Volcanic Ridge and another in the north flank of the Talamanca Ridge. Faults of these systems have generated 15 destructive earthquakes in the area during the last 228 years all of them shallow and their locations show one cluster near the Poas Volcano and another southward the Central Valley. These earthquakes have damaged cities of the Central Valley, two of them destroyed Cartago city and almost 1000 people were killed. Regarding recent seismicity, there are three main seismic sources at the Central Volcanic Ridge: Irazu, Bajo de la Hondura and Poas and other three in the Talamanca Ridge: Puriscal, Los Santos and Pejibaye.A seismic hazard map for the Metropolitan Area of San José has been elaborated, based on local tectonic and seismic information. The area for the hazard computation covers an area of 20×15 km² and includes the zone where the most population and socioeconomic activities are concentrated. The computation analysis are based on areas zones and faults, each one characterized by recurrence parameters, geometry, minimum and maximum magnitude and source depth. A recent local spectral attenuation model, which includes relations for shallow crustal sources and subduction zone earthquakes, has been applied in this study. The seismic hazard results are presented in terms of contour plots of estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for bedrock conditions for return period of 50, 100 and 500 years. In the Central Park of San Jose City the following PGA values were found: 0.29g for 50 years, 0.36g for 100 years, and 0.53g for 500 years.  相似文献   

Variation of Plasma Pressure at the Auroral Oval Latitudes before,during, and after the Isolated Geomagnetic Substorm on December 22, 2008     

M. Rojas Gamarra  Gonzalez  J.  Stepanova  M. V.  Antonova  E. E. 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2020,60(4):452-460

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The change in plasma pressure at the latitudes of the auroral oval before, during, and after the isolated geomagnetic substorm on December 22, 2008, were studied using...  相似文献   

Preliminary study on the preservation of giant clam (Tridacnidae) shells from the Balobok Rockshelter archaeological site,south Philippines     

Marie Grace Pamela G. Faylona  Claire E. Lazareth  Anne‐Marie Smah  Sandrine Caquineau  Hugues Boucher  Wilfredo P. Ronquillo 《Geoarchaeology》2011,26(6):888-901

Tridacnidae shells, a valuable archive of past environments, are common in the Balobok Rockshelter archaeological site on Sanga‐Sanga Island in the south Philippines. This site was occupied during the mid‐Holocene (ca. 5000–8800 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), a period of Neolithic cultural expansion in the Philippines. This paper focuses on the preservation of two shell specimens, Hippopus hippopus and Tridacna maxima, unearthed from two mid‐Holocene layers within the rockshelter. The shells' mineralogy and microstructure (prismatic and crossed‐lamellar) were studied using micro‐Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy to determine if the samples were suitable as paleoenvironmental records. Both shells are still aragonitic but aragonite crystals of both microstructure types are partly dissolved. This dissolution, characteristic of meteoric water alteration, precludes their utility in paleoenvironmental geochemical studies. Nevertheless, these shells are abundant in archaeological sites in the region and may be better preserved in other depositional contexts; more studies on Philippine Tridacnidae shell diagenesis are needed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献