Addressing sources of uncertainty in runoff projections for a data scarce catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes     

Jean-François Exbrayat  Wouter Buytaert  Edison Timbe  David Windhorst  Lutz Breuer 《Climatic change》2014,125(2):221-235

Future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) predict an acceleration of the global hydrological cycle throughout the 21st century in response to human-induced rise in temperatures. However, projections of GCMs are too coarse in resolution to be used in local studies of climate change impacts. To cope with this problem, downscaling methods have been developed that transform climate projections into high resolution datasets to drive impact models such as rainfall-runoff models. Generally, the range of changes simulated by different GCMs is considered to be the major source of variability in the results of such studies. However, the cascade of uncertainty in runoff projections is further elongated by differences between impact models, especially where robust calibration is hampered by the scarcity of data. Here, we address the relative importance of these different sources of uncertainty in a poorly monitored headwater catchment of the Ecuadorian Andes. Therefore, we force 7 hydrological models with downscaled outputs of 8 GCMs driven by the A1B and A2 emission scenarios over the 21st century. Results indicate a likely increase in annual runoff by 2100 with a large variability between the different combinations of a climate model with a hydrological model. Differences between GCM projections introduce a gradually increasing relative uncertainty throughout the 21st century. Meanwhile, structural differences between applied hydrological models still contribute to a third of the total uncertainty in late 21st century runoff projections and differences between the two emission scenarios are marginal.  相似文献   

Strengthening bottom-up and top-down climate governance     

Jo Dirix  Wouter Peeters  Johan Eyckmans  Peter Tom Jones  Sigrid Sterckx 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):363-383

Although the UN and EU focus their climate policies on the prevention of a 2 °C global mean temperature rise, it has been estimated that a rise of at least 4?°C is more likely. Given the political climate of inaction, there is a need to instigate a bottom-up approach so as to build domestic support for future climate treaties, empower citizens, and motivate leaders to take action. A review is provided of the predominant top-down cap-and-trade policies in place – the Kyoto Protocol and EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) – with a focus on the grandfathering of emissions entitlements and the possibility of offsetting emissions. These policies are evaluated according to two criteria of justice and it is concluded that they fail to satisfy them. Some suggestions as to how the EU ETS can be improved so as to enable robust climate action are also offered.

Policy relevance

The current supranational climate policy has not been successful and global leaders have postponed the adoption of a meaningful successor to the Kyoto Protocol. In view of this inaction, bottom-up approaches with regard to climate policy should be further developed. It is argued that two of the main top-down policies, grandfathering and offsetting, impede the avowed goals of EU climate policy and pose significant ethical dilemmas with regard to participatory and intergenerational justice. In order to provide a more robust EU climate policy, the EU should inter alia provide a long-term perspective for investors, reduce the volatility of the carbon price, and prepare for the possibility of carbon leakage.  相似文献   

VLBI measurements of the parallax and proper motion of U Herculis     

Huib Jan van Langevelde  Philip J. Diamond  Wouter Vlemmings  Alain Baudry  Harm J. Habing  Richard T. Schilizzi 《New Astronomy Reviews》1999,43(8-10)

The OH 1667 maser in the circumstellar shell around the Mira variable U Her has been observed with the VLBA at 6 epochs, spread over 4 years. By using straightforward phase referencing techniques the stellar proper motion can be measured. Preliminary analysis indicates that the parallactic motion is also detected. An important question is whether the maser spots can be assumed to be fixed with respect to the star. The observations show both evidence supporting and contradicting the idea that one maser spot is the amplified stellar image.  相似文献   

Predicting gully densities at sub-continental scales: a case study for the Horn of Africa     

Matthias Vanmaercke  Yixian Chen  Nigussie Haregeweyn  Sofie De Geeter  Benjamin Campforts  Wouter Heyndrickx  Atsushi Tsunekawa  Jean Poesen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(15):3763-3779

Despite its environmental and scientific significance, predicting gully erosion remains problematic. This is especially so in strongly contrasting and degraded regions such as the Horn of Africa. Machine learning algorithms such as random forests (RF) offer great potential to deal with the complex, often non-linear, nature of factors controlling gully erosion. Nonetheless, their applicability at regional to continental scales remains largely untested. Moreover, such algorithms require large amounts of observations for model training and testing. Collecting such data remains an important bottleneck. Here we help to address these gaps by developing and testing a methodology to simulate gully densities across Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti (total area: 1.2 million km²). We propose a methodology to quickly assess the gully head density (GHD) for representative 1 km² study sites by visually scoring the presence of gullies in Google Earth and then converting these scores to realistic estimates of GHD. Based on this approach, we compiled GHD observations for 1,700 sites. We used these data to train sets of RF regression models that simulate GHD at a 1 km² resolution, based on topographic/geomorphic, land cover, soil and rainfall conditions. Our approach also accounts for uncertainties in GHD observations. Independent validations showed generally acceptable simulations of regional GHD patterns. We further show that: (i) model performance strongly depends on the amount of training data used, (ii) large prediction errors mainly occur in areas where also the predicted uncertainty is large and (iii) collecting additional training data for these areas results in more drastic model performance improvements. Analyses of the feature importance of predictor variables further showed that patterns of GHD across the Horn of Africa strongly depend on NDVI and annual rainfall, but also on normalized steepness index (k_sn) and distance to rivers. Overall, our work opens promising perspectives to assess gully densities at continental scales. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献