Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment     

Yanmin Yang  De Li Liu  Muhuddin Rajin Anwar  Heping Zuo  Yonghui Yang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):391-410

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO₂ concentration_, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO₂ emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021–2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961–1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021–2040) over the baseline (1961–1990) varies from +3.4 to ?14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.  相似文献   

动应力对粉质土变形、强度的影响     

左辉  张留栓 《岩土工程技术》2014,28(6):311-315

研山铁矿设计采用露天开采,最终最大边坡高达600m。边坡上部为粉土和粉砂、中砂、卵石、粉质粘土,下部为砂质粘性土和砾质粘性土。由于边坡高,受环境动应力影响因素大,因此分析粉土和粉质粘土层在动应力作用下对变形和强度的影响,对边坡稳定分析具有重要意义。  相似文献   

A Comparison of Modified Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,and Logistic Regression for Mapping Mineral Prospectivity     

Daojun Zhang  Frits Agterberg  Qiuming Cheng  Renguang Zuo 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(7):869-885

Weights of evidence and logistic regression are two of the most popular methods for mapping mineral prospectivity. The logistic regression model always produces unbiased estimates, whether or not the evidence variables are conditionally independent with respect to the target variable, while the weights of evidence model features an easy to explain and implement modeling process. It has been shown that there exists a model combining weights of evidence and logistic regression that has both of these advantages. In this study, three models consisting of modified fuzzy weights of evidence, fuzzy weights of evidence, and logistic regression are compared with each other for mapping mineral prospectivity. The modified fuzzy weights of the evidence model retains the advantages of both the fuzzy weights of the evidence model and the logistic regression model; the advantages being (1) the predicted number of deposits estimated by the modified fuzzy weights of evidence model is nearly equal to that of the logistic regression model, and (2) it can deal with missing data. This method is shown to be an effective tool for mapping iron prospectivity in Fujian Province, China.  相似文献   

华南亚热带中部山地垂直植被带表土孢粉散布规律与气候相关性     

全晓文  黄康有  水坤春  李宏卫  谢德豪  左锦堂  岑彩凤  郑卓 《热带地理》2022,42(10):1597-1608

孢粉学分析是古生态与古气候定量重建的重要指标之一,建立现代表土孢粉与植被之间的定量关系是利用地层孢粉准确解释古生态与古气候变化的前提条件。基于华南亚热带中部山地垂直植被带采集的113个现代表土和苔藓孢粉样品,采用典型对应分析方法（Canonical Correspondence Analysis, CCA）,探讨研究区不同海拔表土孢粉种类散布规律与气候因子之间的关系。主要得出以下结论：1）华南亚热带中部地区现代表土孢粉组合中乔木类以壳斗科栲属、常绿栎属、松属、杉木属和大戟科等种类占绝对优势,草本植物花粉以禾本科、蒿属、菊科和莎草科为主,蕨类孢子以三缝孢子、芒萁属、水龙骨科和单缝孢子为主。2）研究区低海拔至高海拔的孢粉组合呈现以下变化规律：低海拔地区（0~702 m）孢粉组合以栲属、常绿栎属、松属、野桐属、枫香属、茜草科以及禾本科花粉为主;中海拔（703~1 299 m）山坡的优势孢粉为栲属、杉木属、松属和常绿栎属;高海拔地区（1 300~1 600 m）以栲属、常绿栎属、水青冈属、杜鹃花科以及松属花粉最为丰富,表土孢粉组合变化过程与现代植被群落优势种类有较好的一致性。3）CCA分析结果显示,控制研究区域主要表土孢粉分布的气候因子为年均降雨量（MAP）、最热月降水（Mpwa）和最热月温度（Mtwa）;松属、杉木属、栲属、常绿栎属、山茶科、水青冈属和落叶栎属等高百分比含量的花粉所对应的气候特征较为明显。4）低海拔地区的优势种属栲属、常绿栎属等以及相对高海拔的松属、杉木属和水青冈属等能较好地反映气候因子对植被空间分布的影响。因此,文章揭示了华南亚热带中部地区表土孢粉在垂直植被带上具有明显差异,孢粉散布规律可能与研究区植被组成、生境、花粉形态与传播媒介等因素有关,能为利用化石孢粉数据进行古生态与古气候定量重建提供参考资料。  相似文献   

南海海上搜救困难性评价     

左潇懿  程亮  楚森森  吴洁  张雪东 《热带地理》2022,42(7):1138-1147

为保障船舶海上航行安全,结合GIS与模糊层次分析法,从海上搜救的自然环境和人文搜救力量2个方面选取9个因子建立海上搜救困难性评价模型,对南海海上搜救困难性进行评价。结果表明：1）自然环境影响下,南海海域搜救困难性具有“V”字形分布的特点,由东北向西南难度等级逐渐降低。2）在人文搜救力量影响下,南海海域的搜救困难性整体呈“东北－西南条带式”,难度最大的区域主要位于南海东北―西南的连线上,呈不规则环状向连线两侧递减。3）综合两方面因素,南海部分岛屿周围搜救难度偏高,主要受台风等恶劣天气及远离搜救基地的影响,而远海海域搜救难度在整体上为“东北－西南递减式”空间分布格局,最高和较高的区域由研究区东北延伸至西南,然后向西北、东南两侧递减。总体而言,南海研究区中近21.1%的海域搜救难度≥7级,仍需加强对搜救力量的部署与建设。  相似文献   

Classification and detection of dominant factors in geospatial patterns of traditional settlements in China     

Wu  Shaolin  Di  Baofeng  Ustin  Susan L.  Stamatopoulos  Constantine A.  Li  Jierui  Zuo  Qi  Wu  Xiao  Ai  Nanshan 《地理学报(英文版)》2022,32(5):873-891

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The geospatial distribution pattern in traditional Chinese settlements (TCSs) reflects the traditional harmony between humans and nature, which has been learned...  相似文献   

嵩县黄庄—汝阳三屯熊耳群火山岩古火山机构地质特征     

王令全  左景勋  刘良才 《河南国土资源》1997,(1)

嵩县黄庄—汝阳三屯一带熊耳群火山岩分布区属构造变动强烈的中深剥蚀区。依据岩石岩相标志、断裂构造形迹、火山岩区的产状以及地貌标志等，区内首次识别出了活动于鸡蛋坪期、马家河期的五个古火山口和一个古裂隙喷发带，并对许山期的火山活动特征进行了分析。熊耳群火山活动的早期为北西向的裂隙喷溢；中期以中心式喷发为主，并伴有裂隙式喷发；晚期演化为中心式喷发。区域火山活动表现为自北东向南西由早到晚  相似文献   

3D Anisotropic P- and S-Mode Wavefields Separation in 3D Elastic Reverse-Time Migration     

Zuo  Jiahui  Niu  Fenglin  Liu  Lu  Da  Shuai  Zhang  Houzhu  Yang  Jidong  Zhang  Lele  Zhao  Yang 《Surveys in Geophysics》2022,43(3):673-701

Surveys in Geophysics - In 2D anisotropic media, non-stationary filters and low-rank approximation methods are classical strategies to compute the decomposition operators, but they suffer from...  相似文献   

Erratum to: Understanding and building upon pioneering work of Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 laureates Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann: From greenhouse effect to Earth system science and beyond     

Zhou  Tianjun  Zhang  Wenxia  Chen  Deliang  Zhang  Xuebin  Li  Chao  Zuo  Meng  Chen  Xiaolong 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(7):1414-1414

Science China Earth Sciences -  相似文献   

A MATLAB-based program for processing geochemical data using fractal/multifractal modeling     

Jian Wang  Renguang Zuo 《Earth Science Informatics》2015,8(4):937-947

  相似文献