基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

翟远征  王金生  滕彦国  左锐 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(5):919-932

It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.  相似文献   

Tectonics of the offshore Red River Fault recorded in the junction of the Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan Basins     

Lei  Chao  Ren  Jianye  Pei  Jianxiang  Liu  Bowen  Zuo  Xiang  Liu  Jiaao  Zhu  Shiguo 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2021,64(11):1893-1908

Science China Earth Sciences - The Red River Fault, which originated from the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, has a great significance for obtaining a further understanding of the...  相似文献   

Discovery of six high-redshift quasars with the Lijiang 2.4 m telescope and the Multiple Mirror Telescope     

Xue-Bing Wu  Wen-Wen Zuo  Qian Yang  Wei-Min Yi  Chen-Wei Yang  Wen-Juan Liu  Peng Jiang  Xin-Wen Shu  and Hong-Yan Zhou 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2012,(9):1185-1190

Quasars with redshifts greater than 4 are rare, and can be used to probe the structure and evolution of the early universe. Here we report the discovery of six new quasars with i-band magnitudes brighter than 19.5 and redshifts between 2.4 and 4.6 from spectroscopy with the Yunnan Faint Object Spectrograph and Camera (YFOSC) at the Lijiang 2.4 m telescope in February, 2012. These quasars are in the list of z > 3.6 quasar candidates selected by using our proposed J K/i Y criterion and the photometric redshift estimations from the SDSS optical and UKIDSS near-IR photometric data. Nine candidates were observed by YFOSC, and five among six new quasars were identified as z > 3.6 quasars. One of the other three objects was identified as a star and the other two were unidentified due to the lower signal-to-noise ratio of their spectra. This is the first time that z > 4 quasars have been discovered using a telescope in China. Thanks to the Chinese Telescope Access Program (TAP), the redshift of 4.6 for one of these quasars was confirmed by the Multiple Mirror Telescope (MMT) Red Channel spectroscopy. The continuum and emission line properties of these six quasars, as well as their central black hole masses and Eddington ratios, were obtained.  相似文献   

基于模糊物元模型的中国旅游生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐少癸  左逸帆  章牧 《地理科学》2021,41(1):33-43

基于DPSIR模型构建旅游生态安全评价指标体系,利用模糊物元模型对中国31个省（市、区）（不含港澳台）旅游生态安全进行动态评价,并运用空间自相关分析空间格局演化特征。同时借助障碍度模型,对旅游生态安全的障碍因子进行诊断。结果表明:① 旅游生态安全呈现出波动增长的“W”型演化趋势。2013—2016年中国旅游生态安全在空间上呈现出“东部高、西部低”的分布格局,但随着时间推移,出现“北部高、南部低;中间高、两边低”的格局变化;② 从全局来看,2013—2017年中国旅游生态安全在空间上呈现出显著的空间集聚分布的特点,但集聚程度有逐渐下降的态势。从局部关联来看,各省旅游生态安全空间分布存在着空间集聚特征和省域间的空间依赖性;③ 各省旅游生态安全障碍因子存在显著差异,障碍度高于10%的障碍因子较多,主要的障碍因子有旅游经济密度、游客密度、烟尘排放、生活垃圾处理率和污水处理率等。因此,在大力发展旅游业时,需充分考虑经济发展程度和旅游生态安全提升能力;同时还要注意旅游政策与环境保护政策的协调性。  相似文献   

我国旅游地理研究格局及热点分析     

雷彬  李松志  张祚 《世界地理研究》2021,30(3):632-644

以国家自然科学基金2000—2019年资助的560项旅游类课题为数据来源,对课题立项的时空分布、承担单位、负责人等进行统计分析,构建由6个主类和15个亚类组成的旅游地理问题分类体系,运用词频统计和内容分析法,总结我国旅游地理研究格局和热点发展态势。研究发现：2000年至2019年间,自然基金委对旅游类课题的资助力度不断加强,总体呈先缓慢、后迅速增长、再大幅提升后保持平稳发展的态势,资助空间分布呈“东高西低”的特点,课题依托单位明显优势集中,课题承担人则呈离散分布;旅游流、旅游产业发展、旅游交通等研究主题热度逐渐减弱,旅游者行为和感知、旅游的社会文化影响、旅游地空间、典型旅游地保护和开发、旅游生态环境等主题热度明显上升,在此基础上对各热点主题历年变化特征和规律进行归纳总结。本文更新和拓展了以往同类研究发现,对旅游学者进行研究选题和课题申报有参考和指导意义。  相似文献   

长江经济带工业废水排放的时空格局演化及驱动因素   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

陈昆仑  郭宇琪  刘小琼  张祚 《地理科学》2017,37(11):1668-1677

利用探索性空间分析方法（ESDA）和迪氏分解模型（LMDI）研究长江经济带2002~2013年工业废水排放的时空格局演化和主要驱动因素。① 时空格局演化方面,时间上工业废水排放先上升后下降,在2005年达到峰值。空间上,排放量自上游向下游增加;高排放城市减少,中排放城市增多;工业废水排放自下游向中上游转移,并由大城市向中小城市扩散;呈现明显的空间集聚状态。② 驱动因素方面,经济发展效应和技术进步效应分别是工业废水排放增多和降低的主导因素;产业结构效应的影响取决于产业发展政策的调整;人口规模效应影响较小。  相似文献   

天津电力人体舒适度预报模型     

兰辉  左晓辰  郭玲  周慧 《气象科技》2018,46(3):625-630

为做好天津电力气象服务工作,提供符合电力负荷预测需求的人体舒适度预报产品,本文根据国内外多种人体舒适度预报模型,利用2002—2005年夏季天津逐日电力负荷数据和气象数据,计算天津市逐日平均人体舒适度,详细分析各模型计算结果与平均气温和气象负荷的对应关系。结果发现,UTCI模型、吕伟林室外预报模型和李源模型计算的人体舒适度更符合天津市人体舒适度感觉,且与电力气象负荷的线性相关性较好。鉴于吕伟林模型在我国应用较广,本文采用最小二乘法对吕伟林室外预报模型进行拟合订正,建立出符合天津市电力气象服务需求的人体舒适度预报模型。  相似文献   

Extraction of basic trends of urban expansion in China over past 40 years from satellite images   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Qingke Wen  Zengxiang Zhang  Lifeng Shi  Xiaoli Zhao  Fang Liu  Jinyong Xu  Ling Yi  Bin Liu  Xiao Wang  Lijun Zuo  Shunguang Hu  Na Li  Minmin Li 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2016,26(2):129-142

If urban sprawl is to be avoided in China in the next ten years, it is not only crucial to understand the overall history, current status, and future trends of urban expansion there, but also these differences, and this is presently lacking. In this study, remotely sensed images with approximately 30 m spatial resolution were used to quantitatively assess the spatial and temporal patterns of urban expansion of 60 Chinese cities(1973–2013). Urban-expansion-process curves of the cities studied were drawn using annual expansion area as an indicator. Curve similarity analysis generated four basic process modes of urban expansion in China. These included cities that: 1) peaked around 2004 and then decelerated; 2) peaked around 2010 and then decelerated; 3) showed sustained acceleration, and 4) showed continued deceleration. Four basic process modes represented cities under different levels of development stage. Geographic location was found to be the most related characteristic to urban expansion process. Regional development policies at the national level in each region also showed highly temporal consistency with fluctuation characteristics of urban expansion process. Urban characteristic such as population size and administrative level were not found to be significantly related to urban expansion-process modes. Understanding the basic process-mode categories well is extremely important for future regional-balance planning and development of macroeconomic policies.  相似文献   

晚二叠世甘肃北山南带中段走滑隆升与拉分拗陷作用     

左国朝  刘春燕  冯永忠 《地质与资源》1993,2(4):277-283

晚二叠世,处于板内活动中后期的北山南带中段地区,发生规模宏大的左旋位移走滑断裂作用。花牛山-五峰山和黄尖丘-新场两地区形成正性的走滑隆升区,其相应中间地带则显示了负性拉分拗陷作用,发育了大奇山拉分盆地。走滑隆升地区走滑型剪切带发育,为剪切带型的金矿成矿带。拉分盆地以巨厚火山-磨拉石建造为特征,沉积环境为陆相-海相-海陆混合相。  相似文献   

河南灵宝枪马金矿床成矿特征研究     

王可勇  章增凤  卢作祥 《地质与资源》1993,2(4):262-269

本文对枪马金矿成矿特征进行了初步探讨,认为该矿形成同晚燕山期花岗质岩浆活动,太华群变质地层有关,矿床属中温混合热液成因类型。断裂构造严格控制了含金石英脉的产出,并决定了矿脉内工业矿体的规模及其空间定位,为矿山生产及进一步探矿找矿工作提供了依据。  相似文献