Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes     

Christopher M. Johnson  Xingang Fan  Rezaul Mahmood  Chris Groves  Jason S. Polk  Jun Yan 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,166(3):503-530

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land–atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant sensitivity responses are found over the karst regions, including pronounced warming and cooling effects on the near-surface atmosphere from barren and forested land cover, respectively; (3) the barren ground in the karst regions provides conditions favourable for convective development under certain conditions. Therefore, it is suggested that karst and non-karst landscapes should be distinguished, and their physical processes should be considered for future model development.  相似文献   

我国海上固定平台水文气象观测网发展现状及存在的问题          下载免费PDF全文

黄必桂  唱学静  石新刚 《海洋开发与管理》2016,33(5):104-108

海上观测数据对海洋工程设计和科学研究都有重大作用,海上固定平台观测网因其在位时间长、安全可靠而显得尤为重要。文章分析中国目前在海上固定平台水文气象观测方面取得的成果,包括系统集成、设备集成和研制。其中重点介绍中国海洋石油平台观测系统,并在观测方案、系统设备和数据应用等方面进行深入分析,阐述了中国海上固定平台观测网的发展现状;其次,分析了目前中国海上固定平台观测网发展存在的主要问题;最后,在海上固定平台观测总体规划和数据共享机制建立方面提出建议,为海上固定平台观测网发展提供参考。  相似文献   

2D-Cell Experiment on Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether Transport in Saturated Zone of Groundwater     

LI Hong  LI Xingang    GAO Chuanbo  HUANG Guoqiang    JIANG Bin 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2007,17(3):275-279

As an additive of gasoline,methyl tert-butyl ether(MTBE)has a higher solubility in water,which is about 20 times as high as that of benzene.This characteristic results in MTBE dissolving out of the gasoline into the soil and groundwater.Due to relative unique physicochemical behavior of MTBE it would be an ideal candidate for use in environmental forensic investigations.In order to study the transport and distribution of MTBE in saturated zone of ground water,a two-dimensional experimental cell was setup to simulate the real environment of the groundwater flow.The effects of soil and groundwater flow velocity on the MTBE transport were investigated.The results show that the mobile distance of MTBE in vertical direction was smaller than that in horizontal direction paralleling with the groundwater flow.Because the main dynamics of groundwater flow direction was convection and dispersion,the movement of MTBE is also diffusion in the vertical direction.In addition,the transport of MTBE was more quick in high permeability porous media,and the increase of groundwater flow velocity can accelerate the MTBE plume de-velopment,but the irregularity and randomness of the plume are enhanced synchronously.These research results can give some helps for the investigation of MTBE movement in the groundwater,also can make some references for other petroleum contamination behavior.  相似文献   

21世纪前期中国降水预估及其订正     

张蓓  戴新刚  杨阳 《大气科学》2019,43(6):1385-1398

用全球格点分析数据集（CRU TSv4.0）月降水资料和24个CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）模式历史模拟数据以及RCP4.5情景下的预估数据,分析了多模式集合平均降水的偏差特征并进行了扣除模式气候漂移和一元对数差分回归订正。结果表明,模式降水在西部和北部明显偏多,东南沿海偏少;冷季（11月至次年4月）在全国大部分地区模式降水偏多,暖季（5～10月）东南沿海季风区偏少。1956～2005年多模式集合平均历史模拟降水偏差中84%属于气候漂移,其余是偏差的非定常模态。扣除气候漂移后,RCP4.5情景下2006～2015年中国模式降水预估偏差减小90%以上,大部分地区降水偏差百分率分布在±5%以内,仅在青藏高原西部和西北中部等地区模式降水偏多10%～40%;暖季降水偏差分布与年降水量类似;冷季偏差较大,北方降水偏多,南方偏少。检验表明,一元线性对数差分回归方程订正后,模式降水对于2006～2015年期间西南和江南中部的干旱少雨气候均能再现,且距平同号率高于多模式集合平均和扣除气候漂移的结果。用该方法对RCP4.5情景下2016～2035年模式预估降水进行订正,结果显示,南方（淮河以南）降水减少5%～20%,河套、内蒙古和华北北部减少20%～40%,东北南部、淮河流域、西北大部增加10%～40%及以上,东南沿海和台湾省降水增加10%～20%。以上降水预估结果说明,在RCP4.5情景下,21世纪前期持续十年的西南干旱会略有缓解,但南方降水偏少格局变化不大,淮河流域和三江源区及其以西等地降水可能明显增加。中国降水异常分布总体呈现南北少、中间多的格局,但北方和西部高山地带的降水预估存在较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

TELECONNECTION BETWEEN INDIAN MONSOON AND EAST ASIAN CIRCULATION^*          下载免费PDF全文

DAI Xingang  WANG Ping  WU Guoxiong  CHOU Jifan 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2004,18(4):397-410

Correlation analysis identified that Indian summer rainfall and East Asian 500 hPa geopotential height field are significantly correlated.A teleconnection pattern between Indian monsoon and East Asian summer circulation (IEA pattern) was proposed.We suggested that the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern (PJ pattern) primarily influences the meridional position of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) in summer,while IEA pattern partly affects its zonal stretch or the anomaly of geopotential height field over China mainland.The numerical experiments imply that the IEA pattern has important impact on East Asian circulation and it can be stimulated by the SST anomaly of the Indian Ocean.We summarized that there are two ways,a directive way and a selective way,by which ENSO exerts impacts on East Asian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

1961—2006年内蒙古年平均气温突变分析   总被引：12，自引：7，他引：5  

尤莉  戴新刚  邱海涛 《内蒙古气象》2010,(2):3-5

利用内蒙古70个气象站1961—2006年年平均气温资料,分析了近46年来内蒙古气温变化趋势。采用滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall和累积距平曲线3种检验方法对全区年平均气温进行检验分析,揭示了在50年时间尺度上,内蒙古气温存在明显的增暖突变的事实,突变点在1987年。并指出:气温突变后内蒙古气候显著变暖,与突变前相比有明显差异。  相似文献   

土耳其卡赞碱矿对接井水溶开采技术创新综述          下载免费PDF全文

刘汪威  涂运中  刘海翔  张新刚  林修阔 《探矿工程》2020,47(8):14-23

土耳其卡赞碱矿钻井项目主要利用高精度中靶技术使定向水平井与垂直井在碱层中对接后进行水溶开采的方法。该项目通过长期大量的钻井工作,在已有的钻井技术与地质条件基础上,改进完善了与地层相适应的钻井技术,建立了矿区三维地质模型,设计应用了水平分支对接井,优化了钻井轨迹设计,建立起非矿层与矿层的基准物探测井响应曲线,探索出矿区地层致斜机理及相应钻井防斜措施,研究并应用了各种井底钻具组合与设备,采用了提高水平钻井轨迹控制精度的技术方法。上述多种水溶采矿钻井技术创新措施的应用,提高了矿山规划能力、降低了施工成本、提高了资源回采率、缩短了施工工期、降低了劳动强度、提高了钻进效率、减少了施工用地以及对环境的破坏。可为天然碱矿及可溶性矿产的整体矿山规划,以及钻井水溶采矿技术的提高提供借鉴。  相似文献   

基于InVEST模型的宁夏盐池县禁牧草地生态补偿标准空间识别   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

仲俊涛  王蓓  米文宝  樊新刚  杨美玲  杨显明 《地理科学》2020,40(6):1019-1028

以农牧交错带宁夏盐池县草地为研究对象,综合集成草地植被与土壤调查、草地信息提取、遥感反演、空间分析等技术方法,基于本地化的InVEST模型,选取碳储存、土壤保持和水源涵养3项关键生态系统服务类型,对禁牧前后（2000年,2015年）草地生态系统服务物质量进行精准评估,在此基础上,采用市场价值法对其价值化,测算禁牧前后草地生态系统服务价值变化量,以此确定生态补偿标准,并借助冷热点、三维趋势分析对生态补偿标准进行不同尺度的空间识别。结果显示：① 禁牧以来,盐池县草地生态系统服务显著增强,其中碳储量增加45.66×10⁴ t、强度增加0.42 t/hm²,水源涵养量增加9 351×10⁴ t、强度增加211.14 t/hm²,土壤保持量增加2 091×10⁴ t,强度增加44.93 t/hm²;② 草地生态补偿标准县域为309.21元/hm²、乡镇尺度介于7.25~1 146.36元/hm²、村级介于3.04~2 074.56元/hm²,村级尺度更能体现草地的生态贡献;③ 补偿标准的三维趋势呈现由西向东提高、南北向呈“U”型分异的特征,补偿热点区集中于盐池县东南部和东北部。  相似文献   

时序InSAR技术应用于高压输电线路附近的地表形变灾害防控     

祝昕刚  明生 《测绘通报》2021,(7):92-97

2020年6月12日,广州从化区的高压输电线路森从甲线,发生暴雨内涝应急事故,多处杆塔区域地质发生塌方、内涝。本文利用小基线集（SBAS）技术,基于Sentinel-1A数据,反演获得高压输电线路附近区域的2020年1月至6月累积地表形变量,研究强降水对山体地表形变产生的影响。综合分析监测结果表明,该区域在2020年上半年期间大部分均趋于平稳,部分丘陵地区在外界条件作用及土壤含水量高的影响下,呈现出不稳定的持续沉降趋势,在强降雨季地表沉降速率会明显增长,最大沉降量超过-55.3 mm。亚热带季风气候带来的季节性强降雨和人类频繁的建设活动,使得山体滑坡、塌方、内涝等自然灾害极易发生,对区域环境稳定和安全、区域发展和经济增长造成负面影响。  相似文献   

沙瓦特指数的数值计算方案比较研究     

吕新刚  周志强 《气象》2015,41(10):1260-1267

比较了三种假相当位温(θse)计算式的精确度,分析了θse对沙瓦特指数(SI)计算的重要影响,提出精度较高的SI计算实用方案。该方案首先利用干绝热过程中位温和比湿守恒性质迭代求解抬升凝结高度处温压变量;计算起始气块的θse;然后基于湿绝热过程假相当位温的守恒性质,采用Stackpole迭代方法计算湿绝热上升到500 hPa的气块温度,进而计算SI。研究发现,θse的误差是SI计算误差的重要来源,采用准确的θse计算方案非常重要。经计算比较,发现θse的Bolton公式和李任承公式计算精度较高,而经典的Rossby公式计算得到的θse表现为系统性偏低,偏低量随气块温湿的增加而增大。相应地,采用Bolton公式计算θse所得到的SI之精度最高,与查表值703个算例之间的平均绝对误差仅0.45℃,李任承公式效果与之接近;而传统的Rossby公式相应的平均绝对误差为0.66℃。与前人的SI算例对比表明,本方案计算精度得到进一步提高,在预报业务中具有一定实用价值。  相似文献