Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15  

David G. Vaughan  Gareth J. Marshall  William M. Connolley  Claire Parkinson  Robert Mulvaney  Dominic A. Hodgson  John C. King  Carol J. Pudsey  John Turner 《Climatic change》2003,60(3):243-274

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.  相似文献   

EVOLUTION FEATURES OF MULTI-SCALE WAVE-INTENSITY AND ITS COHERENCE DURING TORRENTIAL RAIN PROCESS^*          下载免费PDF全文

WEI Fengying  ZHU Fukang  XIE Yu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2003,17(4):481-491

In this paper the Morlet complex wavelet munction was applied to analyze the evolution features of multi-scale wave-intensity during a torrential rain process.Separating the suhsynoptic scale system on temperature of black body(TBB) fields during a torrential rain process over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Changjiang River in the last dekad of July 1998,the evolution of multi-scale wave-intensity can be expressed by wavelet modules,and its coherence was investigated with the cross spectrum between the multi-scale waves.The results show that the process of the accumulation and release on the energy of meso-β scale system was shown in the torrential rain process,and the meso-α scale system had an interference effect on the meso-β system in a shorter period.  相似文献   

耦合海-气环流模式中双热带辐合带现象及其热收支分析   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

李江龙  张学洪  俞永强  戴福山 《气象学报》2003,61(1):39-51

文中研究了耦合海-气环流模式中的双热带辐合带(Double ITCZ)现象,并对这一现象的成因从海洋热量收支的角度进行了初步分析。Double ITCZ现象是在热带太平洋赤道南北两侧各出现一条ITCZ的现象,这是耦合海-气环流模式中的较为普遍的一种异常现象,与实际气候中出现的Double ITCZ现象并非指同一问题。文中对比观测和模式结果,指出了Double ITCZ现象的主要特征,针对它的出现过程进行细致分析,再利用模式输出的热量收支各项进行统计,得到了从海洋热收支分析得到的海表温度变化原因。与观测到的正常模态相比,Double ITCZ是一个异常的模态,它的特征突出地表现为西太平洋暖池区的降温和东南太平洋10°S附近的升温。海洋热量收支分析表明,暖池区的降温主要是受到扩散的作用,而表层平流的异常增暖在决定异常辐合带区升温过程中占第一位的作用。  相似文献   

GPS长距离和多测段定位中广播星历的改进方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王解先  朱文耀 《测绘学报》1997,26(2):140-147

本文分析了广播星历误差对ＧＰＳ长基线和多测段定位结果的影响，由此提出了旨在减弱卫星轨道误差对于相对定位精度影响的一种简便而又实用的方法，即先按卫星运动的力学模型建立状态方程，其初始状态向量由某组广播星历得出，由每组广播星历建立观测方程，由数值积分得出的参考轨道由广播星历ｔｏｅ时刻的位置和速度观测值的最小二乘平差所得的改正后的轨道，不仅可消除各组广播星历间的不一致性，而且其精度也高于任何一组广播星历  相似文献   

RS与GIS集成环境下的遥感图像分析技术     

余旭初  方勇 《测绘学院学报》1997,(3)

通过多源数据融合，将目前GIS中包含的地理信息作为辅助数据，引入到RS图像分析过程中。GIS数据在空间信息、目标属性和目标范围等方面对RS图像分析具有重要的引导作用。  相似文献   

过黄河渡槽的脉动风荷载模拟     

李书进  虞晖  李桂青 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1997,(2)

根据脉动风压功率谱与脉动风速功率谱之间的关系，利用风压功率谱密度函数矩阵的分解，通过一组余弦函数的和对过黄河渡槽随机形式的脉动风荷载进行了计算机模拟  相似文献   

Teleconnection　Paterns　in　the　Northern　Hemisphere　Simulated　by　IAP　GCM   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xue Feng  Zeng Qingcun 《大气科学进展》1997,14(1):41-48

ＴｅｌｅｃｏｎｎｅｃｔｉｏｎＰａｔｅｒｎｓｉｎｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈｅｒｎＨｅｍｉｓｐｈｅｒｅＳｉｍｕｌａｔｅｄｂｙＩＡＰＧＣＭＸｕｅＦｅｎｇ（薛峰）ａｎｄＺｅｎｇＱｉｎｇｃｕｎ（曾庆存）ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＰｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｃｈｉｎ...  相似文献   

本世纪昆明气温异常及突变的分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王宇 《高原气象》1997,16(1):73-80

根据昆明１９２１～１９９３年的年，夏季（６～８月），冬季（１２～２月）平均气温资料，分析研究了昆明的气温变化趋势，冷暖阶段，气温异常发生频率及气温突变点，结果表明：从本世纪２０年代开始，昆明气温呈上升趋势，至４０年代前后达最高，此后下降，７０年代降至最低，８０年代开始略有回升，１９２１～１９５４年为偏暖阶段，１９５５～１９９３年偏冷阶段，昆明高温异常主要出现在１９５０年以前，低温异常大多数出现在１  相似文献   

对三轴补偿补偿值的分析与测试     

余勇 《四川测绘》1997,20(1):21-23

本文对三轴补偿的补偿值逐项进行分析，从测试的总的补偿值中，通过计算分离出各项补偿值，并展示出各项补偿值特性，以助于认识三轴补偿。  相似文献   

热惯量法在监测土壤表层水分变化中的研究   总被引：95，自引：2，他引：95  

余涛  田国良 《遥感学报》1997,1(1):24-31,80

利用遥感方法监测一定层水深土壤水分变化，关键是建立卫星数据与地表水热变化关系，该文地遥感定量反演土壤水热变化的数值模拟系统及热惯量在其边界，初始条件确定中所起的作用进行的简述，并介绍了热惯量法求解表层水分含量的发展概况，为进一步提高定量化监测方法的地必琢计算精度，该文发展了地表能量平均方程的一种新的化简方法，经过这样的处理，可从遥感图象数据直接得到真实热惯量值，进而得到土壤水分含量分布，通过野外实  相似文献