A method for estimating earthquake occurrence probability using first- and multiple-order Markov chain models   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Yukio Fujinawa 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(1):7-22

It is valuable in earthquake prediction to determine the occurrence probability of major earthquakes by making use of data obtained from precursory phenomena up to the time of the evaluation. In this study, the time evolution of the state determined by earthquakes and precursory phenomena was modelled using Markov chains. Various probabilities suitable for earthquake prediction were derived from the transition probability of the Markov chain with a chosen length of memory time. As an example, earthquake sequence records for northern China, which covered a period of about two thousand years, were examined and the results were also obtained from modern scientific observations of the radon anomaly which covered a period of about 10 years.Assuming moderate-sized earthquakes of two magnitude ranges 4 3/4 M 5 3/4, 6 M 6 3/4 as precursors to large earthquakes of a magnitude range, 7 M 8 1/2, transition probabilities were calculated for a time interval from 2 to 40 yr. The results showed that the precursory time of moderate-sized earthquakes is mainly distributed in a time span of around several years and that the earthquake occurrence probability is considerably large when the precursory earthquakes occur successively. Furthermore, it was shown that a larger moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 5 3/4) is a more effective precursor than an entire moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 6 3/4).Second, a multiple precursor case was tried by means of simulation based on the radon anomaly data obtained during a limited observation period. Simultaneous occurrence of two precursors makes the earthquake occurrence probability increase by 1.5–2.0 for a reasonable choice of a mean recurrence interval of the radon anomaly compared with the case where only a moderate-sized earthquake was treated as the precursor. However, the probability is much the same if the average recurrence interval of the radon anomaly is the same through time, including the preparatory period before the earthquake.  相似文献   

Interior textures,chemical compositions,and noble gas signatures of Antarctic cosmic spherules: Possible sources of spherules with long exposure ages     

Takahito OSAWA  Yukio YAMAMOTO  Takaaki NOGUCHI  Akari IOSE  Keisuke NAGAO 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(8):1320-1339

Abstract– The interior texture and chemical and noble gas composition of 99 cosmic spherules collected from the meteorite ice field around the Yamato Mountains in Antarctica were investigated. Their textures were used to classify the spherules into six different types reflecting the degree of heating: 13 were cryptocrystalline, 40 were barred olivine, 3 were porphyritic A, 24 were porphyritic B, 9 were porphyritic C, and 10 were partially melted spherules. While a correlation exists between the type of spherule and its noble gas content, there is no significant correlation between its chemical composition and noble gas content. Fifteen of the spherules still had detectable amounts of extraterrestrial He, and the majority of them had ³He/⁴He ratios that were close to that of solar wind (SW). The Ne isotopic composition of 28 of the spherules clustered between implantation‐fractionated SW and air. Extraterrestrial Ar, confirmed to be present because it had a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio lower than that of terrestrial atmosphere, was found in 35 of the spherules. An enigmatic spherule, labeled M240410, had an extremely high concentration of cosmogenic nuclides. Assuming 4π exposure to galactic and solar cosmic rays as a micrometeoroid and no exposure on the parent body, the cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) age of 393 Myr could be computed using cosmogenic ²¹Ne. Under these model assumptions, the inferred age suggests that the particle might have been an Edgeworth‐Kuiper Belt object. Alternatively, if exposure near the surface of its parent body was dominant, the CRE age of 382 Myr can be estimated from the cosmogenic ³⁸Ar using the production rate of the 2π exposure geometry, and implies that the particle may have originated in the mature regolith of an asteroid.  相似文献   

Book reviews     

Rudnicki  John W.  Zheng  Gutuan  Koch  Manfred  Hanyga  Andrzej  Fujinawa  Yukio  Tabeart  Frazer  Kimbrough  David L.  Lovison-Golob  Lucía  Dore  Anthony  Blecki  Jan  Sroczynska-Kozuchowska  Magdalena 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,140(3):537-556

Pure and Applied Geophysics -  相似文献   

A new formula for evaluating the truncation error coefficient     

Yukio Hagiwara 《Journal of Geodesy》1976,50(2):131-135

In this paper, a new formula for evaluating the truncation coefficientQ _n is derived from recurrence relations of Legendre polynomials. The present formula has been conveniently processed by an electronic computer, providing the value ofQ _n up to a degreen=49 which are exactly equal to those of Paul (1973).  相似文献   

A simple algebraic method for strain estimation from deformed ellipsoidal objects. 1. Basic theory     

Toshihiko Shimamoto  Yukio Ikeda 《Tectonophysics》1976,36(4):315-337

  相似文献   

Erratum     

Yukio Matsubara  Tetsuzo Seno 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1980,48(2):406-414

The Philippine Sea at 5 m.y. B.P has been reconstructed by the following process. Firstly, it was rotated rigidly relative to the Eurasian plate around the pole of rotation at 45.5°N, 150. 2°E with a rotation angle of 6.0° for the past 5 m.y. Secondly, the evolution and deformation along the plate boundaries were incorporated in the rigid rotation. This reconstruction suggests: (1) the Izu Peninsula, which was originally a volcanic island of the Izu-Bonin Arc, collided with central Honshu in a west-northwest direction a few million years B.P.; (2) a TTT(a)-type triple junction east of Honshu has migrated west-northwestward relative to the Eurasian plate; and (3) the subduction zone of the Pacific plate, beneath the central part of the Mariana Arc, has remained fixed relative to Eurasia. Westward motion of the Philippine Sea plate and subduction beneath the eastern Eurasian margin resulted in the opening of the Marian Trough.  相似文献   

Probability of earthquake occurrence estimated from results of rock fracture experiments     

Yukio Hagiwara 《Tectonophysics》1974,23(1-2)

The hazard rate, the number of fracture occurrences per unit time, which has been obtained from laboratory experiments of rock fracture, is obtained for the earth's crust by analysing the statistical distribution of geodetically-observed ultimate strain. The associated hazard function has two coefficients, A and B, to be determined. Comparison of the coefficients obtained by the results of rock-fracture experiments with the geodetically determined ones discloses that B is independent of the size-effect. It is therefore concluded that, if A is estimated from the statistics of the geodetically observed ultimate strain and B is obtained from fracture experiments of rock forming a local part of the crust, the probability of a local large-scale earthquake occurrence can be estimated.  相似文献   

Orogeny of the Japanese Islands     

Yukio Isozaki  Shigenori Maruyama  Gaku Kimura 《Island Arc》1997,6(1):1-1

  相似文献   

Contrasting two types of orogen in Permo-Triassic Japan: Accretionary versus collisional   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yukio  Isozaki 《Island Arc》1997,6(1):2-24

Abstract Proto-Japan originated from a continental margin of the Neoproterozoic Yangtze (South China) craton. It represents a unique Permo-Triassic tectonic setting in western Panthalassa, where two distinct types of orogenic belt occurred side by side. There was an accretionary orogen between the Yangtze craton and the Proto-Pacific (Farallon) Plate and a collisional orogen between the Sino-Korean (North China) and Yangtze cratons. This article reviews results of the latest on-land geological studies concerning Permo-Triassic tectonics in Japan and proposes a new plate tectonic interpretation as well as a paleogeographic reconstruction of this particularly unique geotectonic regime. Special emphases are given to (i) the accretion processes and products derived by collision-subduction of the Permian Akiyoshi paleoseamount and Maizuru paleo-oceanic plateau; (ii) the field occurrence of 220-Ma Sangun high-P/T schists and its implication for the exhumation process and 'tectonic sandwich' structure; (iii) the extensive development of a subhorizontal nappe of the pre-Jurassic rocks and their bearing on the orogenic edifice; and (iv) the restricted occurrence of the 250-Ma collision complex in the Hida and Oki belts and the relevant connection to the Precambrian cratons and collision suture in East Asia. The newly proposed paleogeographic reconstruction is also tested by faunal provinciality of Permo-Triassic fossils from shallow-water sediments.  相似文献   

An unconformity in the early Miocene syn-rifting succession, northern Noto Peninsula, Japan: Evidence for short-term uplifting precedent to the rapid opening of the Japan Sea     

Kazuhiko Kano  Toshiyuki Yoshikawa  Yukio Yanagisawa  Kenshiro Ogasawara  Tohru Danhara 《Island Arc》2002,11(3):170-184

Abstract   The present paper describes the newly discovered early Miocene unconformity in the northern Noto Peninsula, on the Japan Sea side, central Japan. The unconformity marks the boundary between an early Miocene non-marine to marine succession and a more extensive, late early to early middle Miocene marine succession, and contains a time gap of an order of 1 million years or less from 18 Ma or earlier to 17 Ma. The early Miocene succession likely represents an early phase of marine transgression and initial slow rifting. The overlying early to early middle Miocene succession records the climax of the opening of the Japan Sea at ca  16 Ma with widespread, rapid subsidence of the Japan Arc. The unconformity between the two transgressive successions may represent a global sealevel fall or, more likely, crustal uplifting because no upward-shallowing or regressive facies remains between the two successions. Early Miocene unconformities that are thought to be correlative with this unconformity in the northern Noto Peninsula occur in places along the Japan Sea coast of Sakhalin and Japan. They are likely to have been produced during rifting in response to upwelling of asthenospheric mantle, although more accurate age constraints are necessary to evaluate this idea.  相似文献