Logistic判别模型在强降水预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

张芳华  曹勇  徐珺  陶亦为  金荣花  代刊 《气象》2016,42(4):398-405

利用Logistiv判别模型进行强降水预报,并设计3种方案进行对比分析。方案1直接使用14个影响因子进行判别预报,受因子共线性作用及噪音信号影响,虽然拟合效果较好,但预报效果明显下降。方案2对14个影响因子进行主成分分析,利用前6个主成分建模,虽然拟合效果较方案1降低,但由于消除了因子共线性作用以及噪音信号影响,预报效果较方案1提高。方案3运用Bootstrap抽样技术得到符干样本并建模计算模型参数,打乱了原有时间序列中的波动,仪保留平稳信息,拟合自由度进一步降低,导致拟合效果较方案案2下降,但预报效果却是3种方案中最好且最稳定的。在上述研究基础上,利用欧洲中心数值预报模式的预报场资料,建立基于Logistic判别模型的强降水客观预报系统,并在中央气象台业务运行。2013和2014年连续两年汛期预报检验结果表明,概模型对强降水预报的TS评分高于数值模式本身,具有一定的业务参考价值。  相似文献   

热带印度洋海温海盆一致模的变化规律及其对东亚夏季气候影响的回顾   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

黄刚  胡开明  屈侠  陶炜晨  姚帅磊  赵桂洁  姜文萍 《大气科学》2016,40(1):121-130

近十几年,热带印度洋对全球气候的作用越来越受到关注.本文从热带印度洋气候态特征、海温海盆一致模的变化规律以及对东亚夏季气候的影响方面回顾了这些研究工作,并且对这些研究以及存在的不足做了系统的总结.  相似文献   

塔河油田奥陶系岩溶储层垂向带发育特征及其识别标准   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

邹胜章  夏日元  刘莉  唐建生  梁彬 《地质学报》2016,90(9):2490-2501

岩溶储层在垂向上的分带性是岩溶在垂向上发育不均匀的客观表现。根据现代岩溶理论,通过对大量测井资料的统计分析,按照岩溶缝洞系统发育强弱及地下水运动方式、岩溶作用方式,将岩溶储层垂向上划分为表层岩溶带、垂向渗滤溶蚀带、径流溶蚀带、潜流溶蚀带等四个岩溶发育带,并建立了塔河油田奥陶系岩溶储层垂向带划分的测井响应与岩溶成因组合指标体系。测井响应指标包括自然伽玛、电阻率、井径等;岩溶成因指标包括地下水径流方式、岩溶作用类型、充填特征和岩溶个体形态等。根据岩溶储层垂向带划分标准,对塔河油田奥陶系岩溶储层垂向带发育特征进行了统计分析,并对不同地貌区岩溶储层的垂向带发育特征进行分析。分析认为:表层岩溶带以大中型溶蚀孔洞为主,测井显示为高伽玛,低电阻;半充填(或未充填)时测井表现为低伽玛,低电阻;垂向渗滤溶蚀带以高角度溶缝和小型溶蚀孔洞为特征,测井显示为低伽玛,高电阻;径流溶蚀带多发育大型溶洞,测井显示为高伽玛,低电阻;潜流溶蚀带岩溶弱发育,测井显示为低伽玛,高电阻。  相似文献   

薄板样条函数支持下的等深线追踪算法研究     

倪晓东  邹德华  邓德标 《测绘通报》2016,(1):132-135

基于薄板样条函数的拟合曲面能很好地根据水深点数据模拟水下地形,通过建立一定密度的规则格网可以十分精细地追踪等深线。因薄板样条曲面是光滑的,故生成的等深线具有一定的平滑性。本文首先论述了薄板样条曲面的解算步骤,然后研究了在该曲面上构建规则格网模型和追踪等深线的算法,最后以南方CASS作为实现平台,根据实际数据生成的等深线效果证明了本文提出的算法是可行有效的,能有效地避免曲线拟合过程中产生的凸起或陡变现象。  相似文献   

基于“天地图”的地震应急服务平台设计     

张新  陶坤旺  朱翊 《测绘工程》2016,25(3):46-50

地震应急与社会经济紧密相关,也是防震减灾的重要内容。在总结地震应急相关研究与信息服务的基础上,采用网络技术、GIS技术、数据库技术,设计并开发基于"天地图"的地震应急服务平台,实现震情实时发布、空间查询定位、灾情实时反馈、直接经济损失快速评估、经济人口信息的统计分析等功能。该平台的建立将为震前预测提供完备、现势的数据基础,为震中救援提供可视化的分析平台,为震后恢复重建的资源调配提供数据支持。  相似文献   

基于“智慧城管”的宁波市城市管理多源数据整合研究     

蒋敏  邹逸江 《北京测绘》2016,(3):90-94

叙述了进行基于"智慧城管"的宁波市城市管理多源数据整合研究的必要性,阐明了整合的方法和技术路线,确定了整合的数据资源种类,描述了整合数据资源当作扩充城市部件的基本原理以及整合数据类的编码和属性表达方法,最后对整合后的应用效果进行了分析,即实现整合数据资源的高度共享和增值利用。  相似文献   

川中地区茅口组两期流体叠合控制下的白云石化模式     

王珏博  谷一凡  陶艳忠  强子同  强深涛  蒋婵 《沉积学报》2016,34(2):236-249

岩相学特征、地化分析揭示:川中地区下二叠统茅口组白云岩存在三种白云石:①平直晶面细晶白云石(δ13C_PDB=3.06‰,δ18O_PDB=-6.81‰;Fe:1×10-6,Mn:未检出,Sr:150×10-6);②非平直晶面粗晶鞍状白云石(δ13C_PDB=3.22‰,δ18O_PDB=-7.82‰;Fe:149×10-6,Mn:185×10-6,Sr:85×10-6);③非平直晶面细晶白云石(δ13C_PDB=3.49‰,δ18O_PDB=-9.45‰;Th=123℃,S=133~139‰NaCl;Fe:58×10-6,Mn:59×10-6,Sr:76×10-6)。研究结果表明存在两期白云石化流体:①早期压实作用形成的埋藏白云石化流体(T=37.4℃;S=29.8‰NaCl);②晚期受构造控制的热液白云石化流体(Th=114.8℃;S=153~226‰NaCl)。明确了三种白云石的成因:平直晶面细晶白云石是由早期埋藏流体交代泥晶基质形成的;非平直晶面细晶白云石是平直晶面细晶白云石在受到热液流体改造后所形成的;而非平直晶面粗晶鞍状白云石则是由热液流体直接沉淀出的。基于研究结果建立了相应的白云化模式。  相似文献   

Shale Gas Formation and Occurrence in China: An Overview of the Current Status and Future Potential     

ZOU Caineng  YANG Zhi  PAN Songqi  CHEN Yanyan  LIN Senhu  HUANG Jinliang  WU Songtao  DONG Dazhong  WANG Shufang  LIANG Feng  SUN Shash  HUANG Yong  WENG Dingwei 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(4):1249-1283

Shale gas is one of the most promising unconventional resources both in China and abroad. It is known as a form of self-contained source-reservoir system with large and continuous dimensions. Through years of considerable exploration efforts, China has identified three large shale gas fields in the Fuling, Changning and Weiyuan areas of the Sichuan Basin, and has announced more than 540 billion m~3 of proven shale gas reserves in marine shale systems. The geological theories for shale gas development have progressed rapidly in China as well. For example, the new depositional patterns have been introduced for deciphering the paleogeography and sedimentary systems of the Wufeng shale and Longmaxi shale in the Sichuan Basin. The shale gas storage mechanism has been widely accepted as differing from conventional natural gas in that it is adsorbed on organic matter or a mineral surface or occurs as free gas trapped in pores and fractures of the shale. Significant advances in the techniques of microstructural characterization have provided new insights on how gas molecules are stored in micro- and nano-scale porous shales. Furthermore, newly-developed concepts and practices in the petroleum industry, such as hydraulic fracturing, microseismic monitoring and multiwell horizontal drilling, have made the production of this unevenly distributed but promising unconventional natural gas a reality. China has 10–36 trillion m~3 of promising shale gas among the world's whole predicted technically recoverable reserves of 206.6 trillion m~3. China is on the way to achieving its goal of an annual yield of 30–50 billion m~3 by launching more trials within shale gas projects.  相似文献   

Characteristics and Origin of Tight Oil Accumulations in the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin, North-Central China     

WU Songtao  ZOU Caineng  ZHU Rukai  YAO Jingli  TAO Shizhen  YANG Zhi  HAI Xiufen  CUI Jingwei  LIN Senhu 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(5):1821-1837

The Upper Triassic oil accumulations in the Ordos Basin is the most successful tight oil play in China,with average porosity values of less than 10% and permeability values below 1.0 mD.This study investigated the geological characteristics and origin of the tight oil accumulations in the Chang 6 member of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Shanbei area based on over 50,000 petrological,source-rock analysis,well logging and production data.The tight oil accumulation of the Chang 6 member is distributed continuously in the basin slope and the centre of the basin.The oilwater relationships are complex.Laumontite dissolution pores are the most important storage spaces,constituting 30%-60% of total porosity and showing a strong positive relationship with oil production.The pore-throat diameter is less than 1 μm,and the calculated critical height of the oil column is much larger than the tight sand thickness,suggesting that the buoyancy was probably of limited importance for oil migration.The pressure difference between the source rocks and sandstone reservoirs is inferred to have provided driving force for hydrocarbon migration.Two factors of source-reservoir configuration and laumontite dissolution contributed to the formation of the Chang 6 tight oil accumulations.Intense hydrocarbon generation and continuous sand bodies close to the hydrocarbon kitchen are the foundation for the large-scale oil distribution.Dissolution of feldspar-laumontite during the process of organic matter evolution generated abundant secondary pores and improved the reservoir quality.  相似文献   

受控定向钻进技术在福建马坑矿区的应用          下载免费PDF全文

邹道全 《探矿工程》2016,43(1):70-74,80

重点介绍了福建马坑矿区ZK8321分支孔受控定向钻进技术。施工中运用了国内先进的螺杆钻造斜技术及光纤陀螺测量定向技术,避开上部复杂孔段（松散破碎层、溶洞地层、采空区等）及对勘探工作的影响,达到了施工目的;总结了施工技术难点与措施,分析了施工技术效果,积累了宝贵的施工经验。  相似文献