长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估     

陶辉黄金龙  翟建青赖锡军 《气候变化研究进展》2013,9(4):246-251

基于长江流域142个气象站1986—2005年月降水和气温数据,评估由MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟能力,并采用EDCDF法对气温和降水预估数据进行偏差校正。结果表明：该区域气候模式能较好地模拟出长江流域平均气温的季节变化和空间分布特征,但模拟值无论在季节还是年际尺度上均高于观测值。对降水而言,该模式不能较好地模拟出降水的季节分布特征,导致春季、冬季及年模拟值高于观测值,而夏季和秋季模拟值低于观测值。总体而言,该模式对气温的模拟效果相对较好。偏差校正后的预估结果表明：在RCP4.5情景下,长江流域未来（2016—2035年）平均气温相对于基准期（1986—2005年）将升高0.66℃,年降水量将减少2.2%。  相似文献   

全国自动地震速报系统综合评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨陈  黄志斌  翟璐媛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2012,33(5):316-321

通过对2011年1月1日至12月31日的3套独立自动地震定位系统结果进行综合处理,得出中国自动地震综合目录,并与正式速报结果进行对比,得出全国自动地震速报系统综合评估结果,发现该目录对于国内绝大部分5级以上、国外7级以上地震实现整体覆盖,且没有误报发生,可以作为国家台网中心正式地震速报的重要参考,对于建立“自动报～正式报”的两级地震速报制度可提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

高压直流输电对泾县地震台地磁观测干扰分析     

郎孝龄  汪丹丹  严吉  翟义勇 《地震地磁观测与研究》2012,33(Z1)

高压直流输电线路对地磁观测的干扰幅度大,随意性大.泾县地震台地磁观测目前受到附近穿行的多条高压直流输电影响,且无法避免.通过对泾县地震台观测资料分析,就高压直流输电对地磁观测的干扰原理和一些识别的方法有一定认识,并掌握有效剔除方法.  相似文献   

Sea surface height variations in the Mindanao Dome region in response to the northern tropical Pacific winds   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宋丹  胡敦欣  翟方国 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2012,30(4):675-683

Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .  相似文献   

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陈西江  花向红  鲁铁定  翟高鹏  杨燕景 《大地测量与地球动力学》2012,32(3):90-93

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西藏南木林普洛岗岩体锆石定年和Hf同位素特征及其地质意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

丛源  肖克炎  翟庆国  董庆吉 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2012,42(6):1783-1795

对冈底斯中段南木林县普洛岗乡花岗岩岩体进行了原位锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年和Hf同位素分析。2个花岗岩样品加权平均年龄分别为(44.3±1.1)和(44.5±1.1) Ma,代表该岩体的岩浆结晶年龄为始新世。岩石地球化学资料显示,花岗岩SiO₂质量分数为60.53％~65.28%,K₂O+Na₂O质量分数为6.53％~7.98%,Al₂O₃质量分数为15.52％~16.13%,铝饱和指数为0.86~0.91,属于准铝质高钾钙碱性系列花岗岩类。花岗岩轻稀土元素相对较富集,具有明显的Eu负异常,微量元素中亏损Nb、Ta、Ti和富集Rb、Th、U、Pb。锆石Hf同位素初始比值ε_Hf(t)值为8.8~11.1,¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf 为0.282 994~0.283 060,Hf同位素地壳模式年龄为422~557 Ma,反映了其岩浆来源于新生地壳物质的部分熔融。普洛岗乡花岗岩的形成与新特提斯洋向北俯冲、俯冲板片折返断离有关。  相似文献   

Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster: a case study in the Huai River Basin,China   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Chao Gao  Zhengtao Zhang  Jianqing Zhai  Liu Qing  Yao Mengting 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):157-167

Together with affected areas of crops from 1978 to 2008, the daily precipitation of 110 stations located in the Huai River Basin during 1959–2008 was used to study the critical conditions when drought and flood occur, based on which the quantitative relationship between the critical condition and the affected area of crops was further studied. Based on the research on the hazard-formative factor of precipitation and the damage degree of crops, the spatial-temporal characteristics of disasters were analyzed, the drought and flood disaster-causing threshold was determined, and the quantitative relationship between the disaster-causing threshold and affected area of crops was established. The results are as the follows: (1) During 1959–2008, extreme precipitation levels were high in the eastern and western part of the Huai River Basin and were low in its central part; the spatial distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV) differed greatly from average extreme precipitation: the series of most stations were located in the central basin, and especially there was a positive trend in Anhui and Henan Provinces. (2) The cumulative precipitation during the disaster period of each station was divided by its mean cumulative precipitation during the same period in 1959–2008 to obtain the disaster-causing threshold, which has shown a good effect on reflecting the actual grade and affected areas in disasters. (3) The relationship among disaster grade, disaster-causing threshold and damage area of crops was established; this threshold can be used as a tool for agricultural disaster assessment and early warning, and can effectively improve the ability to prevent and mitigate disaster in the Huai River Basin. (4) The disaster-causing threshold can be an important input parameter for hazard assessment; other underlying surface indicators can be good supplements for determining the threshold in hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Decoding Neoarchaean to Palaeoproterozoic tectonothermal events in the Rangnim Massif,North Korea: regional correlation and broader implications   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xiaohui Zhang  Yanbin Zhang  Mingguo Zhai  Fuyuan Wu  Quanlin Hou  Lingling Yuan 《International Geology Review》2017,59(1):16-28

Any knowledge about Archaean to Palaeoproterozoic magmatic and metamorphic events in North Korea has the potential to make a significant difference to our understanding of the early tectonic configuration and evolution of East Asia. This zircon U–Pb dating and Hf isotopic study documents multiple Neoarchaean to Palaeoproterozoic tectonothermal events from the meta-igneous complex in the Machollyong ‘Group’ of the Rangnim Massif. Two tonalitic-trondjemitic gneiss samples record a crystallization age of meta-igneous protoliths at ca. 2.56 Ga and multiple migmatization and metamorphism from 2.52 to 1.85 Ga. A meta-dolerite sample yields a magmatic emplacement age of ca. 1.83 Ga. In situ zircon Hf isotopic data indicate that most zircons from the gneiss samples have ε_Hf(t) values from –16.9 to + 3.1 and crustal model ages from 2.84 to 3.73 Ga, whereas magmatic zircons from the meta-dolerite dike record ε_Hf(t) values from –5.2 to + 5.2 and model ages of 2.05–2.44 Ga. The first-recognized Neoarchaean tonalitic-trondjemitic migmatite complex in the Rangnim Massif, together with previously identified tonalitic-trondhjemitic-granodioritic (TTG) rocks in the Rimjingang Belt and the coeval counterparts in western Gyeonggi massif, represents the oldest crustal nuclei in the Korean Peninsula. The multiple tectonothermal events in this study present reliable evidence not only for attesting to consanguinity of the basement between the Korean Peninsula and the North China Craton but also for defining the influence scope of the late Palaeoproterozoic orogeny in the Korean Peninsula.  相似文献   

Petrogenesis and geodynamic setting of the Triassic granitoid plutons in West Qinling,China: insights from LA-ICP-MS zircon U–Pb ages,Lu–Hf isotope signatures and geochemical characteristics of the Zhongchuan pluton     

Shang-Song Yang  Fangfang Zhang  Feng Yuan  De-Gao Zhai  Yu-Jie Li 《International Geology Review》2017,59(15):1908-1928

West Qinling is one of the most important parts of the Qinling orogenic belt and includes acidic–intermediate plutons and many types of ore deposits. In this article, we collected geochemical and geochronological data for the Triassic granitoid plutons of West Qinling and found that nearly all plutons share the similar features with the Zhongchuan pluton. We present new laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) zircon U–Pb ages, major and trace element geochemistry, and zircon Hf isotope systematics for the granites of the Zhongchuan pluton to elucidate the evolution of granitoid plutons in West Qinling during the Triassic. LA-ICP-MS zircon U–Pb dating indicates that the Xujiaba and Guandigou units formed at 220.1 ± 1.2 and 215.9 ± 0.85 Ma, respectively, reflecting the time of the Late Triassic. The rocks of the Zhongchuan pluton are metaluminous to weakly peraluminous and have a high-K calc-alkaline to shoshonite series with high SiO₂ (63.59–76.22%) and low P₂O₅ (0–0.2%) concentrations, a high K₂O/Na₂O ratio (1.18–17.92), a high differentiation index (78.45–93.04) and a medium A/CNK ratio (0.98–1.69). The zircon Hf isotope dating indicates that the Xujiaba and Guandigou units have an inhomogeneous ε_Hf(t) (?4.425 to 1.067 for Xujiaba and ?4.920 to 2.042 for Guandigou) and two-stage Hf model ages (1123–1531 Ma for Xujiaba and 1115–2342 Ma for Guandigou). The geochemical and isotopic data imply that the granites of each unit share the same origin. They probably derived from the partial melt of metagreywackes and then mixed with the mantle-derived magma. Based on the regional geological history, petrographic characteristics and new geochemical and isotopic data of the Zhongchuan pluton, we suggest that the Triassic magma was derived from the partial melts of metagreywackes and was influenced by the mantle-derived melt during the collision of the Yangtze and Qinling plates.  相似文献   

Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City     

Sheng Dong  Jinjin Zhai  Shanshan Tao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2017,16(3):437-446

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.  相似文献