Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

A note on the lake level variations of Nam Co,south-central Tibetan Plateau from 2005 to 2019     

ShiQiao Zhou 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):430-435

Tibetan lake levels are sensitive to global change, and their variations have a large impact on the environment, local agriculture and animal husbandry practices. While many remote sensing data of Tibetan lake level changes have been reported, few are from in-situ measurements. This note presents the first in-situ lake level time series of the central Tibetan Plateau. Since 2005, daily lake level observations have been performed at Lake Nam Co, one of the largest on the Tibetan Plateau. The interannual lake level variations show an overall increasing trend from 2006 to 2014, a rapid decrease from 2014 to 2017, and a surge from 2017 to 2018. The annual average lake level of the hydrological year (May-April) rose 66 cm from 2006 to 2014, dropped 59 cm from 2014 to 2017, and increased 20 cm from 2017 to 2018, resulting in a net rise of 27 cm or an average rate of about 2 cm per year. Compared to the annual average lake level based on the calendar year, it is better to use the annual average lake level based on the hydrological year to determine the interannual lake level changes. As the lake level was stable in May, it is appropriate to compare May lake levels when examining interannual lake level changes with fewer data. Overall, remote sensing results agree well with the in-situ lake level observations; however, some significant deviations exist. In the comparable 2006-2009 period, the calendar-year average lake level observed in-situ rose by 10-11 cm per year, which is lower than the ICESat result of 18 cm per year.  相似文献   

移动GIS在传染病防控方面的应用——以COVID-19为例     

胡盼  何艺  刘韬  黄铁军  何超 《测绘通报》2020,(7):50-52

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的出现和暴发流行,给社会、经济及人群健康提出巨大的挑战,已经成为重大公共卫生事件和社会问题。作为一种新发传染病,提早发现、迅速采用有效应对举措,是防止病毒蔓延扩散的重要环节。地理信息系统（GIS）在传染病的控制、预防、预警中有举足轻重的地位,移动GIS（Mobile GIS）作为GIS技术的发展,进一步提高了我国卫生部门应对突发传染病的能力。本文以COVID-19防控为例,重点介绍了移动GIS技术在传染病防控中的应用。  相似文献   

青岛市生态环境变化遥感监测与分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘宇  齐建伟  卢宏钟  王光辉  高欣圆  王界  张涛 《测绘通报》2020,(9):60-65

城市化进程不断加快带来一系列生态环境问题,本文利用植被指数、湿度指数、地表温度、建筑物—裸土指数定量表征绿度、湿度、热度、干度4个生态要素指标,通过主成分分析法,建立遥感生态指数模型,并从时间和空间两个维度对比分析2013、2019年两个时期遥感生态指数。结果表明,青岛市生态环境呈局部优化改进、整体下降趋势;同时,将青岛市遥感生态指数与人类活动相关的地表覆盖变化数据、路网交通数据、夜光数据进行耦合性分析,进一步分析探寻生态环境变化的影响因子。  相似文献   

X波段高分辨率SAR数据土石坝表面相干性时序变化分析     

单强  姜卫平  李陶  陈露璐 《测绘通报》2020,(10):1-5

本文以深圳公明水库6个中小型土石坝为试验区,利用10景1 m分辨率升降轨X波段TerraSAR影像和坝体附近连续气象站的降雨量数据,研究了坝体表面相干性的时序变化与雷达本地入射角及降雨的关系。试验结果表明,混凝土面板和草坡平均相干性均会随本地入射角增加而减小,同时,草坡表面平均相干性在有微小降雨的情况下就会快速下降0.1~0.2,差分干涉图的噪声增大;混凝土面板对微小的降雨敏感度小,但是在暴雨情况下将导致其表面完全失相干。上述结果表明,针对中小土石坝坡体变形监测应当顾及坝体的坡度及入射角选择合适的雷达成像参数,同时应充分利用降雨资料评估干涉图失相干情况,剔除噪声数据。  相似文献   

测绘地物波谱本底数据库     

钟守熠  肖青  闻建光  郑兴明  马明国  屈永华  郑柯  池天河  唐勇  游冬琴  郝大磊  程娟  贺敏  姜涛  晋锐  姚晓婧  赵理君 《遥感学报》2020,24(6):701-716

地物波谱特性是利用遥感进行建模反演和地物目标探测识别的理论基础,波谱数据库对于提高遥感应用水平有重要作用。为规范和丰富中国波谱数据库并促进其在测绘等领域的应用,依托国家科技性基础专项,建立了“测绘地物波谱本底数据库”,在数据规范编制、波谱数据采集实验与整编入库、地物波谱数据库建设和应用示范初步探索方面取得重要进展。在波谱数据采集和处理的标准规范方面,建立完善了测绘地物波谱与配套非波谱数据收集与汇总标准、测绘地物波谱和配套非波谱参数测试技术规范、测绘地物波谱库地物分类编码规范。依照项目制定的数据规范标准,对现有波谱数据进行了整编和入库,共计整编数据1.4万余条;组织实施了全国范围的典型地物波谱采集实验以及相应配套参数测量实验,主要试验类型包括典型地物波谱测量试验、定点时间序列测量试验、多尺度测量试验、全波段测量试验、参数控制测量试验和无人机观测试验等,共计获取地物波谱1.7万余条。特别是在华北和东北进行了全波段观测试验（可见光—近红外波（0.35—2.5 μm）、红外波段（3—15 μm）、微波波段（Ka、K、X、C、L波段））,获取冰雪、土壤、植被冠层、人工目标的全波段数据。为方便波谱数据的应用和共享,项目建设了包含3万余条数据的测绘地物波谱本底数据库（GOSPEL）及数据共享平台。依据地物波谱数据的类型和应用需求,形成了全波段典型地物波谱数据集、多角度光谱反射率数据集、多尺度典型地物反射率数据集、长时间系列波谱数据集等共25个特色数据集。基于测绘地物波谱本底数据库进行了地物分类、遥感机理模拟、遥感定量反演、遥感产品验证等方面的应用示范。  相似文献   

Tile‐based polygon overlay of vector data in a virtual globe     

Mengyun Zhou  Lizhe Wang  Xiaoyu Chen  Si Wu  Huawei Li 《Transactions in GIS》2020,24(4):1033-1046

The demand for analysis of large‐scale data has increased with increased access to spatial vector data. Polygon overlay of vector data in a virtual globe requires proprietary data structures and proprietary analysis algorithms. A vector data structure is designed for rapid polygon overlay in a virtual globe by recording the metadata of the triangles (TriMeta) that constitute polygons. A polygon overlay algorithm is proposed based on this data structure. The overlay of two complex GIS polygons is transformed into the intersection computation of their 3D triangular presentations. The intersection computation of two sets of triangles is reduced considerably by utilizing TriMeta to filter out the disjoint triangle pairs and rapidly identify the contained triangle. The new method improves the overlay efficiency in a virtual globe because the amount of computation required to calculate the intersections of two large polygons and drape the intersections onto a terrain surface is reduced.  相似文献   

基于LocaSpaceViewer的地理信息技术应用教学设计与反思     

陶佳  李青 《地理教学》2020,(2):53-55

本文基于笔者运用LocaSpaceViewer软件完成人教版地理必修3“地理信息技术在区域地理环境研究中的应用”的教学内容,总结反思教学过程中出现的问题,并提出改进的建议和措施。  相似文献   

珠三角流动人口的代际就业结构分异及影响因素——基于六城市的调查分析     

张晓菲  张国俊  周春山 《热带地理》2020,40(5):821-831

基于珠三角六城市流动人口的问卷调查数据,划分流动人口就业类型,从职业布局和多样化指数的角度比较了新生代、中生代和老一代三代流动人口职业结构差异,利用无序多分类Logistic模型对影响因素进行探究。研究发现：1）珠三角流动人口整体就业水平不高,就业结构在代际间分异明显。新生代在技术型就业和公司文员型就业上表现出优势,中生代在各行业就业相对均衡,老一代多被束缚在以体力劳动为主的基础型部门;就业多样化水平随代际的升高而下降。2）代际就业结构的影响因素及影响方式存在共性和差异,共性因子为受教育程度、月薪水平和性别;外出务工时间正向影响新生代服务型和管理型就业,工作环境稳定的职业对已婚新生代更具吸引力,中生代对户籍和工作保障因子更为敏感。政府可从代际就业特征出发,为流动人口制定有针对性的就业政策;针对就业市场中女性和农村户籍人口的弱势地位,为其提供就业引导,创造健康的就业环境,提高流动人口整体就业水平。  相似文献   

基于住房需求意愿的广州市中产阶层住房区位选择     

边艳  周春山  胡锦灿 《热带地理》2020,40(5):832-842

以2014年广州市中产阶层聚居区24个街道、50个社区进行的问卷调查和深度访谈资料为数据源,从住房需求意愿与区位选择方面分析了广州中产阶层住房选择,并运用多元Logistic回归分析法对其影响因素进行研究。研究发现：1）广州市中产阶层住房区位选择表现出明显的“向中心城区”性;2）现居住现状（人均住房面积、现小区区位、现小区建成年代、现居住时间）、家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模、子女数量）和经济水平（家庭年总收入、个人年总收入、私家车拥有量）等因素对中产阶层住房需求意愿具有显著影响;3）家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模）、个体因素（教育程度、户籍地）等要素对中产阶层住房区位选择具有显著影响。4）制度因素、区位因素和个体因素共同影响着广州市中产阶层住房区位选择。  相似文献