High-Frequency and Low-Frequency Variability in Stochastic Daily Weather Generator and Its Effect on Agricultural and Hydrologic Modelling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Martin Dubrovský  Josef Buchtele  Zdeněk Žalud 《Climatic change》2004,63(1-2):145-179

The high-frequency and low-frequency variabilities, which are often misreproduced by the daily weather generators, have a significant effect on modelling weather-dependent processes. Three modifications are suggested to improve the reproduction of the both variabilities in a four-variate daily weather generator Met&Roll: (i) inclusion of the annual cycle of lag-0 and lag-1 correlations among solar radiation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, (ii) use of the 3rd order Markov chain to model precipitation occurrence, (iii) applying the monthly generator (based on a first-order autoregressive model) to fit the low-frequency variability. The tests are made to examine the effects of the three new features on (i) a stochastic structure of the synthetic series, and on (ii) outputs from CERES-Wheat crop model (crop yields) and SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model (monthly streamflow characteristics, distribution of 5-day streamflow) fed by the synthetic weather series. The results are compared with those obtained with the observed weather series.Results: (i) The inclusion of the annual cycle of the correlations has rather ambiguous effect on the temporal structure of the weather characteristics simulated by the generator and only insignificant effect on the output from either simulation model. (ii) Increased order of the Markov chain improves modelling of precipitation occurrence series (especially long dry spells), and correspondingly improves reliability of the output from either simulation model. (iii) Conditioning the daily generator on monthly generator has the most positive effect, especially on the output from the hydrological model: Variability of the monthly streamflow characteristics and the frequency of extreme streamflows are better simulated. (iv) Of the two simulation models, the improvements related to the three modifications are more pronounced in the hydrological simulations. This may be also due to the fact that the crop growth simulations were less affected by the imperfections of the unmodified version of Met&Roll.  相似文献   

Late cretaceous volcanogenic flysch and diabase-chert formations in the Yugoslav Inner Dinarides     

Žarko Ž. Jovanovíc 《Sedimentary Geology》1973,9(2):117-147

In the Turonian and Maastrichtian, the “Diabase-chert Formation” and the “Volcanogenic flysch” were formed as two specific rock series, due to the synchronous basic volcanism of the Drenica area in Kosovo (Yugoslavia). Comparison with other localities of the Inner Dinarides has proved that, regardless of their different stratigraphic position, each of these two formations exhibits in individual localities great lithological and structural similarities. Both formations are associated with large tectonic zones with ophiolitic occurrences which extend from the Alps through the Yugoslav Inner Dinarides, northern and northeastern Greece, part of Turkey (Asia Minor) and further southeast.The Diabase-chert Formation is a lateral facies of Turnonian limestone. It is represented by a characteristic regime of a specific geochemical character, brought about by synchronous basic volcanism, and by the introduction of volcanogenic components — these factors are responsible for great lithological diversity and very rapid lateral and vertical changes. A certain consistency in the lithological composition is only noticable in the closing horizons of this formation at its transition into limestone sediments.The volcanogenic flysch was formed as a result of subvolcanic activity synchronous with flysch sedimentation whereby semi-consolidated flysch sediments acquired certain volcanogenic-sedimentary characteristics. The most intensively disturbed parts around submarine flows of diabase have been recognized as the “zone of highly disturbed flysch”. The zone is conformably overlain by the stratified cherty-clayey zone. This continues into the “zone of ball sandstone”, and ends with the “zone of normal flysch”. Their newly acquired characteristics resulting from synchronous basic volcanism distinguish them clearly from normal flysch and make them a special type of flysch — the volcanogenic flysch.  相似文献   

In-situ and laboratory tests of old brick masonry strengthened with FRP in innovative configurations and design considerations     

M. Jarc Simonič  S. Gostič  V. Bosiljkov  R. Žarnić 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(1):257-278

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GPU-Accelerated Simulation of Massive Spatial Data Based on the Modified Planar Rotator Model     

Žukovič  Milan  Borovský  Michal  Lach  Matúš  Hristopulos  Dionissios T. 《Mathematical Geosciences》2020,52(1):123-143

Mathematical Geosciences - A novel Gibbs Markov random field for spatial data on Cartesian grids based on the modified planar rotator (MPR) model of statistical physics has been recently introduced...  相似文献   

Variability of droughts in the Czech Republic, 1881–2006     

R. Brázdil  M. Trnka  P. Dobrovolný  K. Chromá  P. Hlavinka  Z. Žalud 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,97(3-4):297-315

We analyze droughts in the Czech Republic from 1881–2006 based on the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and the Z-index using averaged national temperature and precipitation series for the calculations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), PDSI and Z-index series show an increasing tendency towards longer and more intensive dry episodes in which, for example, droughts that occurred in the mid-1930s, late 1940s–early 1950s, late 1980s–early 1990s and early 2000s were the most severe. Cycles at periods of 3.4–3.5, 4.2–4.3, 5.0–5.1 and 15.4 years exceeded 95% confidence levels in application of maximum entropy spectral analysis. These are expressed at different intensities throughout the period studied. The occurrence of extremely dry and severely dry months is associated with a higher frequency of anticyclonic situations according to the classification employed by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Principal component analysis documents the importance of the ridge from the Siberian High over Central Europe when extreme and severe droughts in months of the winter half-year are considered in terms of sea-level pressure. In the summer half-year, the ridge of the Azores High over Central Europe is the most important. Drought episodes have a profound effect on national and regional agricultural production, with yields being consistently lower than in normal years, as is documented through the example of spring barley, winter wheat, forage crops on arable land, and hay from meadows. Seasons with pronounced drought during the April–June period (e.g., 1947 and 2000) show the most significant yield decreases. Forests appear to be very vulnerable to long-term drought episodes, as it was the case during the dry years of 1992–1994. This study clearly confirms the statistically significant tendency to more intensive dry episodes in the region, driven by temperature increase and precipitation decrease, which has already been suggested in other studies.  相似文献   

The Lateglacial and Holocene in Central Europe: a multi‐proxy environmental record from the Bohemian Forest,Czech Republic          下载免费PDF全文

Klára Vočadlová  Libor Petr  Pavla Žáčková  Marek Křížek  Lenka Křížová  Simon M. Hutchinson  Miroslav Šobr 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(4):769-784

The Hercynian mountain ranges were islands of mountain glaciation and alpine tundra in a Central European ice‐free corridor during the Late Pleistocene. Today they are notable areas of glacial landforms, alpine‐forest free areas, peatlands and woodlands. However, our knowledge of the Lateglacial and early Holocene environmental changes in this region is limited. We present a new multi‐proxy reconstruction of a mid‐altitude environment in the Bohemian Forest spanning this period. A core (5.2 m length) in the ?erné Lake cirque (1028 m a.s.l.) was subjected to lithological, geochemical, pollen and macrofossil analysis supplemented by two optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and 10 AMS radiocarbon dates. We determined the impact of regional and supraregional climate changes on the environment. The two most significant changes in sedimentation during the Lateglacial (17.6 and 15.8–15.5 cal. ka BP) were synchronous with regional glacial chronostratigraphy. Unlike Central European mountain ranges, in the Bohemian Forest the Younger Dryas was not coincident with glacier re‐advance, but was a dry, cold episode with low lake levels, which prevailed until the early Preboreal. Plant macrofossils indicate local establishment of Betula nana and Betula pendula/pubescens at 15.4–13.4 cal. ka BP. Comparison with Holocene records from Central Europe shows a similar immigration history of vegetation at mid and higher altitudes. The tree line exceeded an altitude of ~1000 m a.s.l. around 10.5 cal. ka BP and coincided with rapid geochemical changes in the sediment. The 8.2 ka BP event did not have any response in the sedimentary record, but corresponded to stabilization of the Picea abies population and expansion of Fagus. Fagus colonized the Bohemian Forest earlier than other Hercynian mid‐mountains, but never predominated in the composition of the forest at higher elevations. Abies alba was the last tree species that immigrated to the study area.  相似文献   

Cellular energy allocation in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the stratified estuary as a physiological biomarker     

Erk M  Ivanković D  Strižak Ž 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(5):1124-1129

This study demonstrates the usefulness of cellular energy allocation (CEA) evaluations as a physiological biomarker to infer the occurrence of natural stress in native populations of mussels inhabiting the stratified estuary (Krka River estuary, Croatia). Sampling sites were selected based on their differences in the salinity and temperature. The CEA value was calculated as a ratio between available energy (E_a) and energy consumption (E_c). Generally, higher values of E_a were recorded in June than in November, which were especially evident in the storage components (carbohydrates and lipids), while the constitutive component (proteins) remained relatively constant. The highest E_c was recorded in mussels at estuarine site compared to coastal site, which may be caused by the energetically costly maintenance of osmotic balance. Decrease in CEA recorded in estuarine mussels may ultimately result in a lower amount of energy available for growth, reproduction, or defence against other stresses (e.g. pollution).  相似文献   

Geology and genesis of Variscan porphyry-style gold mineralization, Petráčkova hora deposit, Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic     

Jiří Zachariáš  Zdeněk Pertold  Marta Pudilová  Karel Žák  Jaroslava Pertoldová  Holly Stein  Richard Markey 《Mineralium Deposita》2001,36(6):517-541

A large number of Variscan mesothermal gold deposits are located in the central part of the Bohemian Massif, close to the Central Bohemian Plutonic Complex. The Petrá)kova hora deposit has many features that distinguish it from other deposits in the region and suggest its mineralization is closely related to the late magmatic processes associated with the Petrá)kova hora granodiorite. The gold ores occur as sheeted arrays of quartz veins and veinlets hosted by the small Petrá)kova hora granodiorite stock. Gold is found mainly as free grains of >900 fineness, and is accompanied by abundant pyrrhotite and chalcopyrite, and accessory pyrite, arsenopyrite, loellingite, and molybdenite. Molybdenite from the Petrá)kova hora deposit has been dated by the Re-Os method at 344.4DŽ.8 Ma. Hydrothermal alteration in the Petrá)kova hora deposit exhibits a distinct temporal paragenesis. Selectively pervasive, early K-alteration and silicification are the oldest hydrothermal phases. These were followed by early quartz veins (Q₁ to Q₄) that contain most of the gold mineralization. Late quartz veins (Q₅) and fracture-controlled silicification are gold-poor or barren. Barren calcite veins are the youngest hydrothermal product. Extensive low-temperature, meteoric-water dominated alteration, as is typical of classic porphyry deposits, is absent. However, the lower '¹⁸O whole rock values for Petrá)kova hora granodiorite and aplite (+2.4 to +5.1‰ SMOW) compared to other intrusions in the region reflect either interaction with isotopically light external fluids or magma assimilation of small volumes of hydrothermally altered country rock. The '¹⁸O isotopic compositions for quartz, scheelite and hornblende (7.7 to 13.4‰ SMOW) and the '³⁴S compositions for sulfide minerals (-1 to +3.5‰ CDT) from early, gold-rich quartz veins indicate formation at high temperatures (590 to 400 °C) from fluids with a magmatic isotopic signature ('¹⁸O_FLUID of 5.7 to 7.2‰). Fluids related to late quartz veins (Q₅) suggest the presence of a significant component of non-magmatic water ('¹⁸O_FLUID: +2.5 to +4.0‰). The '³⁴S values of post-Q₅ sulfide minerals (-4.5 to -3.5‰) reflect at least partial derivation of late-stage sulfur from a source external to the intrusions. Aqueous, aqueous-carbonic and nitrogen-bearing fluid inclusions were identified in hydrothermal and igneous quartz, with the aqueous inclusions being the most common. In hydrothermal vein quartz, the salinity of primary aqueous inclusions falls into ranges 6 to 23 and 33 to 41 equiv. wt% NaCl; in igneous quartz, populations in salinity were observed between 5 to 16, 35 to 40 and 62 to 70 equiv. wt% NaCl. The salt component of these fluids is best, and minimally, approximated by the NaCl-KCl-CaCl₂ system. Low- and high-salinity aqueous-carbonic inclusions are accessory in many of the analyzed samples. Three large successive pulses of fluids are recognized. Each pulse begins with a high-salinity (>30 equiv. wt% NaCl) magmatic fluid and evolves toward a lower salinity (~5 equiv. wt% NaCl) fluid. Data suggest that external (meteoric?) water(s) were significant for only the third fluid pulse, which formed the late Q₅ quartz veins and the calcite veins. Polyphase fluid inclusions hosted by igneous quartz of the Petrá)kova hora granodiorite indicate minimum trapping conditions of about 3 kbar and 550 °C. The gold-rich Q₁ to Q₄ veins may have formed along a quasi-isobaric cooling path at 2.5 to 1.5 kbar and 590 to 400 °C. This was followed by uplift, and formation of late Q₅ quartz veins (0.5 to 1.5 kbar; ~300 °C) and post-ore calcite veins (<0.5 kbar; 100 to 140 °C). The characteristics of the Petrá)kova hora deposit suggest that it may represent a position intermediate between intrusion-related gold systems (e.g., Fort Knox deposit, Alaska) and gold-rich, copper-poor porphyry deposits (e.g., Maricunga Belt in Chile). As such, the Petrá)kova hora deposit might be an example of the reduced gold sub-type of porphyry deposit.  相似文献   

Karst rivers’ particularity: an example from Dinaric karst (Croatia/Bosnia and Herzegovina)   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Ognjen Bonacci  Ivana Željković  Amira Galić 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(2):963-974

The very complex system of sinking, losing and underground transboundary Karst rivers, lakes and aquifers in the central part of the deep and bare Dinaric karst in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina is analysed. The groundwater and surface water are hydraulically connected through numerous karst forms which facilitate the exchange of water between the surface and subsurface. A complex underground conduit system is an inherent characteristic karst system analysed. Groundwater and surface water exchange with both adjacent and distant aquifers through underground routes or inflows from surface streams and artificial reservoirs. Because of a complex surface and underground karst features, which strongly influenced its hydrological and hydrogeological regime, the main open stream flow, with a longitude of about 106 km, undergoes eight name changes. In this paper, it is noted as “the eight-name river”. In fact, it represents one river with losing, sinking and underground stream sections. Different surface and underground karst forms play crucial roles in the way the water flowing over the surface and on the underground sections of its catchment. The analysed area is full of varied and often spectacular surface landforms, including for example the Blue and Red Lakes and the Kravice Waterfall. The analyses made in the paper show the existence of a decreasing trend of mean annual discharges on the eight-name river, which can cause numerous problems in the regional water resource management of this transboundary river and catchment.  相似文献   

Formation of Coronal Large-Amplitude Waves and the Chromospheric Response     

B. Vršnak  T. Žic  S. Lulić  M. Temmer  A. M. Veronig 《Solar physics》2016,291(1):89-115

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