Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jose A. Marengo  Tercio Ambrizzi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Lincoln M. Alves  Santiago V. Cuadra  Maria C. Valverde  Roger R. Torres  Daniel C. Santos  Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?     

I.C.A. da Silveira  J.A.M. Lima  A.C.K. Schmidt  W. Ceccopieri  A. Sartori  C.P.F. Franscisco  R.F.C. Fontes 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2008,45(3-4):187

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22° S and 25°S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323–350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days⁻¹for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system.  相似文献   

The impact of dust on the scaling properties of galaxy clusters     

Antonio C. da Silva  rea Catalano  Ludovic Montier  Etienne Pointecouteau  Joseph Lanoux  Martin Giard 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(2):849-859

We investigate the effect of dust on the scaling properties of galaxy clusters based on hydrodynamic N -body simulations of structure formation. We have simulated five dust models plus radiative cooling and adiabatic models using the same initial conditions for all runs. The numerical implementation of dust was based on the analytical computations of Montier & Giard. We set up dust simulations to cover different combinations of dust parameters that make evident the effects of size and abundance of dust grains. Comparing our radiative plus dust cooling runs with a purely radiative cooling simulation, we find that dust has an impact on cluster scaling relations. It mainly affects the normalization of the scalings (and their evolution), whereas it introduces no significant differences in their slopes. The strength of the effect critically depends on the dust abundance and grain size parameters as well as on the cluster scaling. Indeed, cooling due to dust is effective in the cluster regime and has a stronger effect on the 'baryon driven' statistical properties of clusters such as   L _X– M , Y – M , S – M   scaling relations. Major differences, relative to the radiative cooling model, are as high as 25 per cent for the   L _X– M   normalization, and about 10 per cent for the Y – M and S – M normalizations at redshift zero. On the other hand, we find that dust has almost no impact on the 'dark matter driven'   T _mw– M   scaling relation. The effects are found to be dependent in equal parts on both dust abundances and grain size distributions for the scalings investigated in this paper. Higher dust abundances and smaller grain sizes cause larger departures from the radiative cooling (i.e. with no dust) model.  相似文献   

Variations in stratigraphic and reservoir properties adjacent to the Mid-Paleocene sequence boundary, Campo section, Pyrenees, Spain     

A.-C. da Silva  C. Loisy  A. Cerepi  R. Toullec  E. Kiefer  L. Humbert  P. Razin 《Sedimentary Geology》2009,219(1-4):237-251

The Paleocene of the Campo section, Spain has different sedimentological characteristics above and below the Mid-Paleocene Unconformity. Beneath the unconformity sediments are dominated by evaporitic carbonates and collapse breccias. Above it they are characterized by continental detrital beds alternating with paleosols. Different subaerial features are observed and correspond to different porosity values, pore–throat sizes and micrite morphologies. Unexposed or intertidal facies have low porosity, low throat–pore size (mesoporosity) and well preserved rhombic crystals. Intermediate exposed facies (paleosols) possess medium porosity, medium pore–throat size (microporosity) and mainly micro-rhombic crystals. Finally, the facies corresponding to high exposure intensity and to evaporitic original facies presents high porosity, permeability, large pore–throat size and rounded micritic crystals. These observations show that the emersion phase caused important dissolution, especially when associated with an easily dissolved original lithofacies.  相似文献   

Isolation,biodegradation ability and molecular detection of hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in petroleum samples from a Brazilian offshore basin     

Suzan Pantaroto de Vasconcellos  Elaine Crespim  Georgiana Feitosa da Cruz  Diego Barbosa Senatore  Karen Christina Marques Simioni  Eugênio Vaz dos Santos Neto  Anita Jocelyne Marsaioli  Valéria Maia de Oliveira 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(5):574-588

The detection of microorganisms with potential for biodeterioration and biodegradation in petroleum fields is of great relevance, since these organisms may be related to a decrease in petroleum quality in the reservoirs or damage in the production facilities. In this sense, petroleum formation water and oil samples were collected from the Campos Basin, Brazil, with the aim of isolating microorganisms and evaluating their ability to degrade distinct classes of hydrocarbon biomarkers (9,10-dihydrophenanthrene, phytane, nonadecanoic acid and 5α-cholestane). Twenty eight bacterial isolates were recovered and identified by sequencing their 16S rRNA genes. Biodegradation assays revealed that bacterial metabolism of hydrocarbons occurred through reactions based on oxidation, carbon–carbon bond cleavage and generation of new bonds or by the physical incorporation of hydrocarbons into microbial cell walls. Based on the biodegradation results, selective PCR-based systems were developed for direct detection in petroleum samples of bacterial groups of interest, namely Bacillus spp., Micrococcus spp., Achromobacter xylosoxidans, Dietzia spp. and Bacillus pumilus. Primer sets targeting 16S rRNA genes were designed and their specificity was confirmed in silico (i.e. computational analysis) and in PCR reactions using DNA from reference strains as positive and negative controls. Total DNA from oil was purified and the amplification tests revealed the presence of the target bacteria in the samples, unraveling a significant potential for petroleum deterioration in the reservoirs sampled, once proper conditions are present for hydrocarbon degradation. The application of molecular methods for rapid detection of specific microorganisms in environmental samples would be valuable as a supporting tool for the evaluation of oil quality in production reservoirs.  相似文献   

Water Availability of Sub-Basins with Restrictions on Use under Climate Change Scenarios in Brazil     

Redivo  Polyana Comino  Sanches  Luciana  de Carvalho Alves  Marcelo  Barbosa da Silva  Jhonatan 《Water Resources》2021,48(6):905-913

Water Resources - The Queima Pé Stream Basin (QPSB) and Ararão River Basin (ARB) in central Brazil have had recurrent problems with water scarcity. This may get worse under anthropogenic...  相似文献   

Camacho inlet southern Brazil - Instability causes and user conflicts     

Guilherme Vieira da Silva João Luiz Baptista de Carvalho  Antonio Henrique da Fontoura Klein 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(8):569-576

Inlet stabilization is a common practice in Brazil, as it is worldwide. In this paper we present results of the analysis of the stabilization practices of the Camacho Inlet, located in Santa Catarina State, southern Brazil. This inlet is maintained intermittently, in accordance with a regime designed to benefit both local fishermen and rice farmers. Fishermen require this inlet to be open as a navigation channel during the fishing season; rice farmers needs it closed during the irrigation period to allow the pumping of fresh water from the Congonhas River which drains into the Camacho’s backbarrier lagoon. An additional complication arises from the tendency of this inlet to close naturally due to infilling by dune migration. Aerial images spanning a 65 year time period (1938-2003) were analyzed, demonstrating the variability in the inlet’s width between 0 (closed) and 360 m. The analysis of inlet stability and user needs indicate that an appropriate solution is the implementation of an annual inlet dredging program in the austral autumn. This would allow for the inlet to remain open from May to September and then close naturally for the rest of the year, providing for a backbarrier fresh water reservoir during the irrigation period.  相似文献   

A simple model to interpret the ultraviolet, optical and infrared emission from galaxies     

Elisabete da Cunha  Stéphane Charlot  David Elbaz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(4):1595-1617

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Binary collisions and the slingshot effect     

Amaro J. Rica da Silva  José P. S. Lemos 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,100(3):191-208

We derive the equations for the gravity assist manoeuvre in the general 2D case without the constraints of circular planetary orbits or widely different masses as assumed by Broucke (AIAA/AAS 1988) and obtain the slingshot conditions and maximum energy gain for arbitrary mass ratios of two colliding rigid bodies. Using the geometric view developed in an earlier paper by the authors (Rica da Silva, A., Lemos, J.P.S.: Am. J. Phys. 74, 584–590, 2006) the possible trajectories are computed for both attractive or repulsive interactions yielding a further insight on the slingshot mechanics and its parametrization. . The general slingshot manoeuvre for arbitrary masses is explained as a particular case of the possible outcomes of attractive or repulsive binary collisions, and the correlation between asymptotic information and orbital parameters is obtained in general.  相似文献   

Monitoring and modelling of hydrological processes in the semiarid region of Brazil: The Cariri experimental basins     

Vajapeyam S. Srinivasan  Hugo M. de Alcântara  Carlos de O. Galvão  Ulisses A. Bezerra  John E. de Brito Leite Cunha 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14194

Catchments have highly variable yields of runoff and soil erosion. The size, land use and the surface cover play a significant role and influence the catchment response and parameter values of simulation models. Two experimental basins—the Cariri basins—were equipped in a semi-arid region of Brazil, for obtaining runoff and sediment yield at different catchment scales, as well as, to evaluate the influence of the land use and surface cover. In the first basin, located in the municipality of Sumé, the field studies were carried out at two different scales: four micro-catchments with an area of around 0.5 ha and nine standard Wischmeier-type erosion plots of 100 m². The experimental units had varied vegetation and management. They were subjected only to natural rainfall events, and were monitored from 1982 to 1991. The total runoff and total sediment yield were determined for each of the events. The installations in the second basin, in the municipality of São João do Cariri, from 1999, include two erosion plots, three micro-catchments, and two sub-catchments of a small basin. These basins are still being monitored for runoff and sediment production. Among the micro-catchments two are nested to detect any scale effect at the micro-catchment level. Nearly 600 events of precipitation, that produced runoff in at least one of the experimental units, have been registered. These data have been used to evaluate the influence of various factors, including cultivation practices and to calibrate hydrological models for plots and micro-catchments. Parameters have been tested by means of cross validations among micro-catchments and sub-catchments. The data sets are made available to all the catchment hydrology researchers and others at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4690886 .  相似文献