Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting     

L. Mediero  L. Garrote  F. J. Martín-Carrasco 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1129-1149

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.  相似文献   

Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity     

R. Domínguez M. 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):460-478

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.  相似文献   

Corrigendum to “Survival and movements of Magellanic penguins rehabilitated from oil fouling along the coast of South America, 2000–2010” [Marine Pollut. Bull. 64 (2012) 1309–1317]     

Valeria Ruoppolo  Ralph Eric Thijl Vanstreels  Eric J. Woehler  Sergio Andres Rodríguez Heredia  Andréa Corrado Adornes  Rodolfo Pinho da Silva-Filho  Ricardo Matus  Carla Poleschi  Karen Griot  Cristiane K. Miyaji Kolesnikovas  Patrícia Serafini 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,66(1-2):265

  相似文献   

Phytoplankton composition indicators for the assessment of eutrophication in marine waters: Present state and challenges within the European directives     

Maialen Garmendia  Ángel Borja  Javier Franco  Marta Revilla 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,66(1-2):7-16

  相似文献   

Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors     

R. Brázdil  L. Řezníčková  H. Valášek  M. Havlíček  P. Dobrovolný  E. Soukalová 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):468-485

Abstract

Floods from the middle part of the River Morava (eastern Czech Republic) are considered over the course of the past three centuries, the study being based on data derived from documentary evidence (1691–1880), measured peak water stages, H_k (1881–1920) and peak discharges, Q_k (1916–2009), evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (H_N and Q_N ). Changes in land use and water management (water reservoirs, channel modifications) are discussed, as are factors influencing runoff conditions in the Morava catchment. Decadal synthesis of flood series identifies the highest flood activity in the decades of 1911–1920 and 1961–1970 (11 floods each), 1831–1840, 1891–1900, 1901–1910 and 1931–1940 (10 floods each). Uncertainty in this series is related to some incompleteness of documentary data in the pre-1881 period. Very low flood frequency occurred in the 1990s–2000s, although the most disastrous floods were recorded in this particular period (July 1997 at Q ₁₀₀ and March/April 2006 at Q ₂₀–Q ₅₀). Changes in flood frequency correspond partly to long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.

Citation Brázdil, R., ?ezní?ková, L., Valá?ek, H., Havlí?ek, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., ?ehánek, T. & Skokanová, H. (2011) Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 468–485.  相似文献   

Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge     

Yolanda Cantón  Luis Villagarcía  María José Moro  Penelope Serrano-Ortíz  Ana Were  Francisco Javier Alcalá 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):737-753

Abstract

This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year^-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year^-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year^-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity.

Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753.  相似文献   

Influence of a position of the critical level inside a plane layer on the rise of magnetically and thermally driven instabilities     

Alexandra Marsenić  Sebastián Ševčík 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(5):457-476

  相似文献   

Runoff and sediment yield from land under various uses in a Mediterranean mountain area: long‐term results from an experimental station     

Estela Nadal‐Romero  Teodoro Lasanta  José M. García‐Ruiz 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(4):346-355

In this study we analyzed runoff and sediment yield from land under various traditional and current land uses in Mediterranean mountain areas, using long‐term data from an experimental station in the Aísa Valley, Central Spanish Pyrenees. Monitoring at this station has provided 20 years of data that can help explain the hydrological and geomorphological changes that have been observed at larger spatial scales, and also the changes that have occurred to some of the most characteristic landscapes of the Mediterranean middle mountains. In spite of the problems associated with the use of small experimental plots, the results obtained are consistent with other studies in the Mediterranean region, and confirm the strong influence of land use changes on runoff generation and sediment yield. The results indicate that: (i) cereal cultivation on steep slopes (both alternating cereal cultivation and fallow on sloping fields and shifting agriculture on the steepest slopes) represents a major problem for soil conservation. This explains the occurrence throughout the Mediterranean mountains of many degraded hillslopes, which show evidence of sheet wash erosion, rilling, gullying and shallow landsliding; (ii) farmland abandonment has led to a marked reduction in runoff and sediment yield as a consequence of rapid plant recolonization, particularly by dense shrubs; (iii) the natural transformation of abandoned fields into grazing meadows has reduced runoff and sediment yield. Land use trends in the Mediterranean mountains are mainly characterized by generalized farmland abandonment and a decrease in livestock pressure. From a hydrological and geomorphological point of view the main consequences have been a reduction in overland flow from the hillslopes, and a reduction in sediment sources, with differences up to one order of magnitude in sediment yield from dense shrub cover and grazing meadow areas compared with areas under shifting agriculture. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geophysical-Archaeological Survey in Lake Tequesquitengo,Morelos, Mexico     

Roberto E. Galindo Domínguez  William L. Bandy  Carlos A. Mortera Gutiérrez  José Ortega Ramírez 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(3):261-275

In August 2009, a marine geophysical survey was conducted in Lake Tequesquitengo (located in the state of Morelos, Mexico) to delineate the extent of the remains of a small town that has been submerged since the mid 19th century. The survey consists of the acquisition and mapping of magnetic, single beam bathymetric and side-scan sonar data. A dual receiver marine GPS navigation system was used to position the boat during the survey. Except for the larger structural remains that are visible on the side scan sonar images, the magnetic anomaly map proved to be most useful in delineating the extent of the town. These anomalies exhibit short wavelength components in the area surrounding a submerged church, with the shortest wavelength components being confined to the area immediately east of the church. These short wavelength components are only observed near the church; therefore, we propose that they delineate the buried remnants of the submerged town.  相似文献   

Total mercury in terrestrial systems (air-soil-plant-water) at the mining region of San Joaquín,Queretaro, Mexico     

Sergio Martínez-Trinidad  Gilberto Hernández Silva  Juventino Martínez Reyes  Gregorio Solorio Munguía  Sara Solís Valdez  Martha Elena Ramírez Islas  Rocío García Martínez 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(1):43-58

Deficient management of cinnabar mining left the San Joaquín region with high concentrations of mercury in its soils (2.4 – 4164 mg kg^-1). Numerous cinnabar mines have contributed to the dispersion of mercury into agricultural (0.5 –314 mg kg^-1) and forest (0.2 – 69 mg kg^-1) soils. Sediments are a natural means of transportation for mercury, causing its spreading, especially in areas near mine entrances (0.6 – 687 mg kg^-1). The nearness of maize crops to mines favors mercury accumulation in the different plant structures, such as roots, stems, leaves, and grain (0.04 – 8.2 mg kg^-1); these being related to mercury volatilization and accumulation in soils. Mercury vapor present in the settlements could indicate a constant volatilization from lands and soils (22 – 153 ng m^-3). The mercury levels found in the soils, in maize grain, and in the air resulted greater than the standards reported by the Official Mexican Norm (NOM) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Mercury in rainwater is due mainly to the presence of suspended atmospheric particles, later deposited on the surface (1.5 – 339 μg |^-1). Mercury dissolution was found in the drinking water (10 – 170 ng |^-1), with concentrations below those established by the NOM and the WHO. The contamination existing in the San Joaquín region does not reach the levels of the world’s greatest mercury producers: Almaden (Spain) and Idrija (Slovenia). It is, however, like that found in other important second degree world producers such as Guizhou (China). The population of San Joaquín, as well as its surrounding environment, are constantly exposed to mercury contamination, thus making a long term monitoring necessary to determine its effects, especially to people.  相似文献