SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

TRIFFID observations of the cores of the three globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712     

S. Ó Tuairisg  R. F. Butler  A. Shearer  R. M. Redfern  D. Butler  A. Penny 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(3):960-980

We present the results of TRIFFID simultaneous V - and B -band observations of the cores of the globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712. A variability search of their dense centres was made feasible through performing post-exposure image sharpening on the images, increasing the image resolution by a factor of ∼2. The isis implementation of the image subtraction technique developed by Alard & Lupton was then used to detect flux variations in our image sets. We have obtained periods for all observable variables (in our field of view) in NGC 6712 and we have found two new RR Lyrae variables (an RRab and an RRc). We have confirmed three variables in our field of view of the M92. For M15, we detect 48 variables in our field of view, 23 of which are new discoveries. We obtain periods and amplitudes for all variables and classify new ones based on the light-curve shape, the most significant period and the mean magnitude in the V band. Among the detected RR Lyrae we find 19 RRc, 12 RRab and two RRd types. In the subsequent analysis we find a marked increase in RRc over RRab variables in the core. In a refined procedure to search for fainter objects we find no dwarf novae in our field of view of M15. Simulations performed on the data set to quantify our sensitivity to such objects indicate that an upper limit of 10 dwarf novae (at 92 per cent probability) exist in our field of view. The implications this result has on globular clusters are discussed.  相似文献   

WR 7a: a V Sagittae or a qWR star?     

A. S. Oliveira  J. E. Steiner  D. Cieslinski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(3):963-967

The star WR 7a, also known as SPH 2, has a spectrum that resembles that of V Sagittae stars although no O  vi emission has been reported. The Temporal Variance Spectrum – TVS – analysis of our data shows weak but strongly variable emission of O  vi lines which is below the noise level in the intensity spectrum.
Contrary to what is seen in V Sagittae stars, optical photometric monitoring shows very little, if any, flickering. We found evidence of periodic variability. The most likely photometric period is   P _phot= 0.227(±14) d  , while radial velocities suggest a period of   P _spec= 0.204(±13) d  . One-day aliases of these periods can not be ruled out. We call attention to similarities with HD 45166 and DI Cru (= WR 46), where multiple periods are present. They may be associated to the binary motion or to non-radial oscillations.
In contrast to a previous conclusion by Pereira et al., we show that WR 7a contains hydrogen. The spectrum of the primary star seems to be detectable as the N  v 4604 Å  absorption line is visible. If so, it means that the wind is optically thin in the continuum and that it is likely to be a helium main sequence star.
Given the similarity to HD 45166, we suggests that WR 7a may be a qWR – quasi Wolf–Rayet – star. Its classification is WN4h/CE in the Smith, Shara & Moffat three-dimensional classification system.  相似文献   

Asteroseismological studies of three β Cephei stars: IL Vel, V433 Car and KZ Mus     

G. Handler  R. R. Shobbrook  F. F. Vuthela  L. A. Balona  F. Rodler  T. Tshenye 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(3):1005-1019

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The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1     

M Grande  R BrowningN Waltham  D ParkerS.K Dunkin  B KentB Kellett  C.H PerryB Swinyard  A PerryJ Feraday  C HoweG McBride  K PhillipsJ Huovelin  P MuhliP.J Hakala  O VilhuJ Laukkanen  N ThomasD Hughes  H AlleyneM Grady  R LundinS Barabash  D BakerP.E Clark  C.D MurrayJ Guest  I CasanovaL.C d'Uston  S MauriceB Foing  D.J Heather  V FernandesK Muinonen  S.S RussellA Christou  C OwenP Charles  H KoskinenM Kato  K SipilaS Nenonen  M HolmstromN Bhandari  R ElphicD Lawrence 《Planetary and Space Science》2003,51(6):427-433

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.  相似文献   

Palaeo-ice streams: an introduction     

Chris D. Clark  David J. A. Evans  Jan A. Piotrowski 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2003,32(1):1-3

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Mezen Bay—a key area for understanding Weichselian glaciations in northern Russia     

Kurt H. Kjr  Igor N. Demidov  Eiliv Larsen  Andrew Murray  Jan K. Nielsen 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(1):73-93

Sediment successions in coastal cliffs around Mezen Bay, southeastern White Sea, record an unusually detailed history of former glaciations, interstadial marine and fluvial events from the Weichselian. A regional glaciation model for the Weichselian is based on new data from the Mezen Bay area and previously published data from adjacent areas. Following the Mikulinian (Eemian) interglacial a shelf‐centred glaciation in the Kara Sea is reflected in proglacial conditions at 100–90 ka. A local ice‐cap over the Timan ridge existed between 75 and 65 ka. Renewed glaciation in the Kara Sea spread southwestwards around 60 ka only, interrupted by a marine inundation, before it advanced to its maximum position at about 55–50 ka. After a prolonged ice‐free period, the Scandinavian ice‐sheet invaded the area from the west and terminated east of Mezen Bay about 17 ka. The previously published evidence of a large ice‐dammed lake in the central Arkhangelsk region, Lake Komi, finds no support in this study. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ion Irradiation of Asphaltite: Optical Effects and Implications for Trans-Neptunian Objects and Centaurs     

Moroz  L. V.  Baratta  G.  Distefano  E.  Strazzulla  G.  Starukhina  L. V.  Dotto  E.  Barucci  M. A. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2003,92(1-4):279-289

Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) and Centaurs show remarkable colour variationsin the visual and near-infrared spectral regions. Surface alteration processes such asspace weathering (e.g., bombardment with ions) and impact resurfacingmay play an important role in the colour diversity of such bodies. Ion irradiation ofhydrocarbon ices and their mixtures with water ice transforms neutral (grey) surfacecolours of ices to red and further to grey. Along with the ices, TNOs and Centaursprobably contain complex carbonaceous compounds, in particular, complexhydrocarbons. Unlike ices, such refractory organic materials have originally lowvisual albedos and red colours in the visible and near-infrared ranges. Here wepresent the first results of ion irradiation experiments on asphaltite. Asphaltite isa natural complex hydrocarbon material. The reflectance spectra of asphaltite inthe 0.4–0.8 μm range have been recorded before irradiation and after eachirradiation step. We demonstrate that irradiation of this red dark material with30 keV H⁺ and 15 keV N⁺ ions gradually transforms its colour from redto grey as a result of carbonization. A moderate increase in the visual albedo hasbeen observed. These results may imply that the surfaces of primitive red objectsoptically dominated by complex refractory organics may show a similar spaceweathering trend. Our laboratory results were compared with published coloursof TNOs and Centaurs. A broad variety of spectral colours observed for TNOs andCentaurs may be reproduced by various spectra of irradiated organics correspondingto different ion fluences. However, such objects probably also contain ices and silicatecomponents which show different space weathering trends. This fact, together with alack of information about albedos, may explain difficulties to reveal correlations between surface colours within TNO and Centaur populations and their other properties, such as absolute magnitudes and orbital parameters.  相似文献   

Lithium Abundances in the Atmospheres of SLR C-Giants WZ Cas and WX Cyg from Resonance and Subordinate Li I Lines     

Larisa A. Yakovina  Yakiv V. Pavlenko  Carlos Abia 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,288(3):279-286

Lithium abundances in the atmospheres of the super Li-rich C-giants WZ Cas and WX Cyg are derived by the spectral synthesis technique using the Li I resonance line at λ670.8 nm and three subordinate lines at λλ 812.6, 610.4 and 497.2 nm. The differences between the Li abundances derived from the λ670.8 nm line and the λλ 497.2, 812.6 nm lines do not exceed ±0.5 dex. The lithium line at λ610.4 nm provides typically lower abundances than the resonance line (by ≈ 1 dex). The mean LTE and NLTE Li abundances from three Li I lines (excluding λ610.4 nm) are 4.7, 4.9 for WZ Cas, and 4.6, 4.8 for WX Cyg, respectively. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Evidence for a mid‐Pleistocene shift of ice‐drift pattern in the Nordic seas     

Jan P. Helmke  Henning A. Bauch  Alain Mazaud 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(2):183-191

Sediment proxy records from a continuous, 1.5 million year long deep‐sea sediment core from a site in the western Norwegian Sea were used to obtain new insights into the nature of palaeoceanographic change in the northern North Atlantic (Nordic seas) during the climatic shift of the Mid‐Pleistocene Revolution (MPR). Red‐green sediment colour and magnetic susceptibility records both reveal significant differences in their mean values when comparing the intervals older than 700 000 yr (700 ka) with those from the past 500 kyr. The timing and duration of these changes indicates that the MPR in the Nordic seas is characterised by a gradual transition lasting about 200 kyr. Together with further sedimentological evidence this suggests that the mid‐Pleistocene climate shift was accompanied by a general change in ice‐drift pattern. It is further proposed that prior to the onset of the major late Pleistocene glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere a significant proportion of the ice in the eastern Nordic seas originated from a southern provenance, whereas later it dominantly came from the surrounding landmasses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献