Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?     

Xin Qu  Alex Hall  Julien Boé 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(5-6):913-927

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.  相似文献   

Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century     

Julien Boé  Alex Hall  Xin Qu 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):637-645

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.  相似文献   

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Alex de Sherbinin  Leah K. VanWey  Kendra McSweeney  Rimjhim Aggarwal  Alisson Barbieri  Sabine Henry  Lori M. Hunter  Wayne Twine  Robert Walker 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(1):38-53

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.  相似文献   

蒙特卡罗不确定性分析在O3模拟中的初步应用     

唐晓  王自发  朱江  吴其重  GBAGUIDI Alex 《气候与环境研究》2010,15(5):541-550

利用蒙特卡罗不确定性分析方法,分析了嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS/IAP)中154个模式输入变量不确定性对臭氧模拟的影响,量化了模式在北京奥运会期间臭氧模拟的不确定性,并确定出了主要不确定性因子。结果表明:(1)在奥运会期间(2008年8月8日～2008年8月24日),北京城区臭氧模拟的平均不确定性为19ppb,不确定性存在明显的日变化特征,白天不确定性大,夜间不确定性小。(2)在白天,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟最重要的不确定性来源是局地前体物排放,其次是NO2光解系数、风向、北京周边前体物排放和垂直扩散系数。另外,地面约150m以上,对臭氧模拟影响最大的不确定性因子是风向和北京周边前体物排放;夜间,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟的最大不确定性来源是局地NOx排放和垂直扩散系数。  相似文献   

北京奥运会期间气溶胶光学特性垂直分布特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨婷  李杰  王自发  张柏  王喜全  GBAGUIDI Alex 《气候与环境研究》2010,15(5):602-608

利用激光雷达观测资料,分析了奥运会期间气溶胶消光系数的垂直廓线,并结合后向轨迹方法对北京地区污染来源以及污染控制措施效果进行了初步分析。观测数据表明:1)2008年消光系数较之2007年在不同高度层的降幅并不相同,600m以下的年际降幅最为显著,1200～4000m高度范围次之。2)各类型消光系数垂直廓线出现频次的统计显示,2008年影响北京的主要廓线类型为边界层上部最高型,而非近地面最高型,说明2008年近地层消光系数有明显的降低。另外,利用后向轨迹法对近地层消光系数降低的原因进行了分析,结果表明,当近地层气团中污染物主要来自于北京周边地区时,400m以下气溶胶消光系数的年际降幅可达18.1%,这说明北京周边区域大气污染控制措施对改善北京近地面层气溶胶污染起到了重要作用。  相似文献   

Equilibrium H/H fractionations in organic molecules: I. Experimental calibration of ab initio calculations     

Ying Wang  Alex L. Sessions  Robert J. Nielsen  William A. Goddard III 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(23):7060-7075

Carbon-bound hydrogen in sedimentary organic matter can undergo exchange over geologic timescales, altering its isotopic composition. Studies investigating the natural abundance distribution of ¹H and ²H in such molecules must account for this exchange, which in turn requires quantitative knowledge regarding the endpoint of exchange, i.e., the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factor (α_eq). To date, relevant data have been lacking for molecules larger than methane. Here we describe an experimental method to measure α_eq for C-bound H positions adjacent to carbonyl group (H_α) in ketones. H at these positions equilibrates on a timescale of days as a result of keto-enol tautomerism, allowing equilibrium ²H/¹H distributions to be indirectly measured. Molecular vibrations for the same ketone molecules are then computed using Density Functional Theory at the B3LYP/6-311G** level and used to calculate α_eq values for H_α. Comparison of experimental and computational results for six different straight and branched ketones yields a temperature-dependent linear calibration curve with slope = 1.081−0.00376T and intercept = 8.404−0.387T, where T is temperature in degrees Celsius. Since the dominant systematic error in the calculation (omission of anharmonicity) is of the same size for ketones and C-bound H in most other linear compounds, we propose that this calibration can be applied to analogous calculations for a wide variety of organic molecules with linear carbon skeletons for temperatures below 100 °C. In a companion paper (Wang et al., 2009) we use this new calibration dataset to calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors for a range of linear hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, ketones, esters and acids.  相似文献   

Raman spectroscopy and biomarker analysis reveal multiple carbon inputs to a Precambrian glacial sediment     

Alison Olcott Marshall  Frank A. Corsetti  Alex L. Sessions  Craig P. Marshall 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(11):1115-1123

Extractable biomarkers can help elucidate the environment and biota of ancient glaciations, although the method must be applied with care, as glacial sediments have a potential for incorporation of older detrital carbon. In Phanerozoic glacial sediments, the distinct elemental, molecular and isotopic compositions of the terrestrial and marine biomass allow discrimination between primary marine and redeposited terrestrial organic matter. However, as the Proterozoic biosphere was largely microbial and marine, biomarker and isotopic analyses are insufficient for distinguishing primary organic matter from secondary reworked organic matter. Here, we report the combined application of Raman spectroscopy and biomarker analysis to Precambrian glacial sediments, which, together, allows discrimination between mixed pools of organic carbon and provides a promising new approach for rapidly screening Precambrian sediments for immature organic matter amenable to biomarker analysis.  相似文献   

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part I – sediment source tracing in three neighbouring river catchments     

Maarten Wynants  Linus Munishi  Kelvin Mtei  Samuel Bodé  Aloyce Patrick  Alex Taylor  David Gilvear  Patrick Ndakidemi  William H. Blake  Pascal Boeckx 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3096-3111

Water bodies in Tanzania are experiencing increased siltation, which is threatening water quality, ecosystem health, and livelihood security in the region. This phenomenon is caused by increasing rates of upstream soil erosion and downstream sediment transport. However, a lack of knowledge on the contributions from different catchment zones, land-use types, and dominant erosion processes, to the transported sediment is undermining the mitigation of soil degradation at the source of the problem. In this context, complementary sediment source tracing techniques were applied in three Tanzanian river systems to further the understanding of the complex dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport in the region. Analysis of the geochemical and biochemical fingerprints revealed a highly complex and variable soil system that could be grouped in distinct classes. These soil classes were unmixed against riverine sediment fingerprints using the Bayesian MixSIAR model, yielding proportionate source contributions for each catchment. This sediment source tracing indicated that hillslope erosion on the open rangelands and maize croplands in the mid-zone contributed over 75% of the transported sediment load in all three river systems during the sampling time-period. By integrating geochemical and biochemical fingerprints in sediment source tracing techniques, this study demonstrated links between land use, soil erosion and downstream sediment transport in Tanzania. This evidence can guide land managers in designing targeted interventions that safeguard both soil health and water quality.  相似文献   

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part II – sedimentological evidence of phased land degradation     

Maarten Wynants  Aloyce Patrick  Linus Munishi  Kelvin Mtei  Samuel Bodé  Alex Taylor  Geoffrey Millward  Neil Roberts  David Gilvear  Patrick Ndakidemi  Pascal Boeckx  William H. Blake 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3112-3126

Soil resources in parts of Tanzania are rapidly being depleted by increased rates of soil erosion and downstream sediment transport, threatening ecosystem health, water and livelihood security in the region. However, incomplete understanding to what effect the dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport are responding to land-use changes and climatic variability are hindering the actions needed to future-proof Tanzanian land-use practices. Complementary environmental diagnostic tools were applied to reconstruct the rates and sources of sedimentation over time in three Tanzanian river systems that have experienced changing land use and climatic conditions. Detailed historical analysis of sediment deposits revealed drastic changes in sediment yield and source contributions. Quantitative sedimentation reconstruction using radionuclide dating showed a 20-fold increase in sediment yield over the past 120 years. The observed dramatic increase in sediment yield is most likely driven by increasing land-use pressures. Deforestation, cropland expansion and increasing grazing pressures resulted into accelerating rates of sheet erosion. A regime shift after years of progressive soil degradation and convergence of surface flows resulted into a highly incised landscape, where high amounts of eroded soil from throughout the catchment are rapidly transported downstream by strongly connected ephemeral drainage networks. By integrating complementary spatial and temporal evidence bases, this study demonstrated links between land-use change, increased soil erosion and downstream sedimentation. Such evidence can guide stakeholders and policy makers in the design of targeted management interventions to safeguard future soil health and water quality.  相似文献   

植物挥发性有机物的初步研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

白建辉  王明星  胡非  James P.Greenberg  Alex B.Guenther 《气候与环境研究》2003,8(2):180-187

2000年1～6月期间,美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)和中国科学院大气物理研究所的科学家发展了一套自动的气相色谱系统和分析方法,用于分析大气中的挥发性有机物.此系统性能稳定,重复性好,对美国大气研究中心附近的大气进行了采样分析.作者简单介绍了此自动系统以及采样分析结果.  相似文献