Multivariate geostatistical application for climate characterization of Minas Gerais State, Brazil     

Luiz G. de Carvalho  Marcelo de Carvalho Alves  Marcelo S. de Oliveira  Rubens L. Vianello  Gilberto C. Sediyama  Luis M. T. de Carvalho 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,102(3-4):417-428

The objective of the present study was to assess for Minas Gerais the cokriging methodology, in order to characterize the spatial variability of Thornthwaite annual moisture index, annual rainfall, and average annual air temperature, based on geographical coordinates, altitude, latitude, and longitude. The climatic element data referred to 39 INMET climatic stations located in the state of Minas Gerais and in nearby areas and the covariables altitude, latitude, and longitude to the SRTM digital elevation model. Spatial dependence of data was observed through spherical cross semivariograms and cross covariance models. Box–Cox and log transformation were applied to the positive variables. In these situations, kriged predictions were back-transformed and returned to the same scale as the original data. Trend was removed using global polynomial interpolation. Universal simple cokriging best characterized the climate variables without tendentiousness and with high accuracy and precision when compared to simple cokriging. Considering the satisfactory implementation of universal simple cokriging for the monitoring of climatic elements, this methodology presents enormous potential for the characterization of climate change impact in Minas Gerais state.  相似文献   

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jose A. Marengo  Tercio Ambrizzi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Lincoln M. Alves  Santiago V. Cuadra  Maria C. Valverde  Roger R. Torres  Daniel C. Santos  Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

Water Availability of Sub-Basins with Restrictions on Use under Climate Change Scenarios in Brazil     

Redivo  Polyana Comino  Sanches  Luciana  de Carvalho Alves  Marcelo  Barbosa da Silva  Jhonatan 《Water Resources》2021,48(6):905-913

Water Resources - The Queima Pé Stream Basin (QPSB) and Ararão River Basin (ARB) in central Brazil have had recurrent problems with water scarcity. This may get worse under anthropogenic...  相似文献   

Salt-induced crestal faults control the formation of Quaternary tunnel valleys in the southern North Sea     

Stefan Wenau  Tiago M. Alves 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2020,49(4):799-812

Tunnel valleys are major features of glaciated margins and they enable meltwater expulsion from underneath a thick ice cover. Their formation is related to the erosion of subglacial sediments by overpressured meltwater and direct glacial erosion. Yet, the impact of pre-existing structures on their formation and morphology remains poorly known. High-quality 3D seismic data allowed the mapping of a large tunnel valley that eroded underlying preglacial delta deposits in the southern North Sea. The valley follows the N–S strike of crestal faults related to a Zechstein salt wall. A change in downstream tunnel valley orientation towards the SE accompanies a change in the strike direction of salt-induced faults. Fault offsets indicate important activity of crestal faults during the deposition of preglacial deltaic sediments. We propose that crestal faults facilitated tunnel valley erosion by acting as high-permeability pathways and allowing subglacial meltwater to reach low-permeability sediments in the underlying Neogene deltaic sequences, ultimately resulting in meltwater overpressure build-up and tunnel valley excavation. Active faults probably also weakened the near-surface sediment to allow a more efficient erosion of the glacial substrate. This control of substrate structures on tunnel valley morphology is considered as a primary factor in subglacial drainage pattern development in the study area.  相似文献   

Climatic signals in lacustrine deposits of the Upper Yacoraite Formation,Western Argentina: Evidence from clay minerals,analcime, dolomite and fibrous calcite     

João Paulo B. Gomes  Rodrigo B. Bunevich  Sandra N. Tonietto  Daisy B. Alves  Julice F. Santos  Fiona F. Whitaker 《Sedimentology》2020,67(5):2282-2309

Authigenic clays are an important control on reservoir quality in lacustrine carbonates but remain challenging to predict. Lacustrine depositional systems respond to climatic variations in rainfall, surface runoff and groundwater input, and evaporation, and result in rapid and frequent changes in lake volume; this is expressed through changing water depth and shoreline position. In the upper portion of the Early Palaeocene Yacoraite Formation of the Salta Basin in Argentina, extensive lacustrine deposits were deposited during the sag phase of rifting. Prior high-resolution stratigraphic studies have suggested that climatic factors control microbial carbonate sequences within a ‘balanced fill’ lake, with variation in the lake level having a major influence on facies association changes. This study characterizes the evolution of facies and mineralogy within the Yacoraite Formation, focusing on the distribution of clay minerals, making a link between the high, medium and low-frequency sequence stratigraphic cycles. The low-frequency transgressive hemicycle of the upper portion of the Yacoraite Formation is comprised of abundant siliciclastic facies, suggesting a wetter period. Microbialites occurring in this interval are coarse-grained and agglutinated. Detrital clay minerals such as illite and chlorite and associated siliciclastic sediments were input to the lake during high-frequency transgressive periods. During high-frequency regressive hemicycles, sedimentation was dominated by carbonate facies with Ca-rich dolomite and the authigenic clays are comprised of chlorite/smectite mixed-layers. By contrast, the low frequency regressive hemicycle records fine-grained agglutinated microbialite with horizons of fibrous calcite, more stoichiometric dolomite, barite and authigenic magnesian smectite. This indicates elevated ion concentrations in the lake under intense evaporation during an arid period. Understanding the conditions that are favourable for formation and preservation of authigenic clays within the lacustrine environment can improve understanding of reservoir quality in comparable economically important deposits.  相似文献   

Conservation status of New Zealand marine invertebrates, 2009     

DJ Freeman  BA Marshall  ST Ahyong  SR Wing  RA Hitchmough 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3):129-148

A re-evaluation of the threat status of New Zealand's marine invertebrates was undertaken in 2009, following earlier review of New Zealand's Threat Classification System and subsequent refinement of the national criteria for classifying threat of extinction to New Zealand's flora and fauna. Sufficient information was available to enable 295 marine invertebrate taxa to be fully evaluated and assigned to a national threat category. The 10 taxa at most risk of extinction (‘nationally critical’) were the giant seep clam Calyptogena sp., the primitive acorn barnacle Chionelasmus crosnieri, O'Shea's vent barnacle Volcanolepas osheai, the stalked barnacle Ibla idiotica, the four-blotched umbrella octopus Cirroctopus hochbergi, the roughy umbrella octopus Opisthoteuthis chathamensis, the giant squid Idioteuthis cordiformis, the large-egged polychaete Boccardiella magniovata and two gravel maggots, Smeagol climoi and Smeagol manneringi. The key threatening processes identified for marine invertebrates were fishing and land-use associated impacts such as sedimentation. We identified no taxa that had improved in threat status as a result of past or ongoing conservation management action, nor any taxa that had worsened in threat status because of known changes in their distribution, abundance or rate of population decline. We evaluated a small fraction of New Zealand's marine invertebrate fauna for their threat status. Many taxa remain ‘data deficient’ or unlisted. In addition to the most threatened taxa, we recommend these taxa and their habitats as priorities for further survey and monitoring.  相似文献   

Evidence for discrete subpopulations of sea perch (Helicolenus ercoides) across four fjords in Fiordland,New Zealand     

RJ Lawton  SR Wing  AM Lewis 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):309-322

In coastal populations of invertebrates and fishes, the distribution of discrete subpopulations is influenced by adult and larval dispersal, as well as by the effects of habitat heterogeneity on site fidelity or connectivity. Here, we examine evidence for spatial structure of sea perch, Helicolenus percoides, populations among four fjords in the Fiordland region of southwestern New Zealand. We examine patterns in adult morphology, length-at-age, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of muscle tissue, and trace elemental composition of whole otoliths as proxies for population isolation among the four inner fjord regions. A multivariate analysis of morphometrics reveals significant differences among populations from each of the four sites, suggesting existence of four distinct subpopulations. These patterns are consistent with observed differences in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N, and length-at-age estimates among the four subpopulations. Differences in whole otolith concentrations of Sr, Ba, Mg and Li, and high classification scores based on the whole otolith elemental fingerprint are also consistent with significant subdivision among areas. Patterns across all four markers are consistent with discrete subpopulation structure of adult sea perch among the four study sites. These data indicate that the newly implemented network of marine protected areas in Fiordland is likely to contain discrete populations of sea perch.  相似文献   

Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study     

Carina L. Lopes  Fátima L. Alves  João M. Dias 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1307-1332

Iranian strong motion records as well as detailed conditions of their instrument sites and the characteristics of their causative seismic sources are compiled and processed. The dataset consists of 2286 three-component records from 461 Iranian earthquakes with at least two high-quality records having moment magnitude from 3.9 to 7.3. These records are about 20% of the Iranian database and are suitable for seismic hazard analysis and engineering applications. Perhaps for the first time in the literature, the distance to the surface projection of the fault is reported for a great number of records corresponding to earthquakes with M > 6.0. The raw accelerations are processed using the wavelet de-noising method. Having corrected and filtered these raw data, the pseudospectral accelerations are calculated for each of the three components of time series, separately. In addition to the ground motion parameters, a large and comprehensive list of metadata characterizing the recording conditions of each record is also developed. Moreover, careful revision of the characteristics of the earthquakes such as location, magnitude, style of faulting and fault rupture plane geometry, if available, is carried out using the best available information in a scientifically sound manner. Finally, we also focus on special ground motion records including records with peak ground acceleration (PGA) >300 cm/s² and distances less than 30 km. These are “exceptional” records in the Iranian dataset and include less than 2% of the selected dataset.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation on the seismic performance of masonry buildings using shaking table testing   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Paulo B. Lourenço  Leonardo Avila  Graça Vasconcelos  J.Pedro Pedro Alves  Nuno Mendes  Alfredo C. Costa 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(4):1157-1190

Masonry buildings worldwide exhibited severe damage and collapse in recent strong earthquake events. It is known that their brittle behavior, which is mainly due to the combination of low tensile strength, large mass and insufficient connection between structural elements, is the main limitation for their structural implementation in residential buildings. A new construction system for masonry buildings using concrete blocks units and trussed reinforcement is presented here and its seismic behavior is validated through shaking table tests. Dynamic tests of two geometrically identical two-story reduced scale (1:2) models have been carried out, considering artificial accelerograms compatible with the elastic response spectrum defined by the Eurocode 8. The first model was reinforced with the new proposed system while the second model was built with unreinforced masonry. The experimental analysis encompasses local and global parameters such as cracking patterns, failure mechanisms, and in-plane and out-of-plane behavior in terms of displacements and lateral drifts from where the global dynamic behavior of the two buildings is analyzed comparatively. Finally, behavior factors for the design recommendations in case of unreinforced masonry are also evaluated.  相似文献   

A new U–Pb zircon age dating and palynological data from a Lower Permian section of the southernmost Paraná Basin,Brazil: Biochronostratigraphical and geochronological implications for Gondwanan correlations     

Ana Luisa Outa Mori  Paulo Alves de Souza  Juliana Charão Marques  Ricardo da Cunha Lopes 《Gondwana Research》2012,21(2-3):654-669

Index species useful for correlations with the International Stratigraphical Column are rare or absent in the Pennsylvanian–Permian strata of the Paraná Basin in Brazil, preventing accuracy in geochronologic assignments. Besides, absolute datings are very scarce in comparison with other Gondwana basins. This paper presents palynological data from an outcrop on the surroundings of the Candiota coal mine, southmost Brazil, from several levels of the Rio Bonito and Palermo formations. The presence of certain index species of spore–pollen allowed the recognition of two Permian palynozones: the Vittatina costabilis and the Lueckisporites virkkiae zones. Furthermore, U–Pb in zircons from a volcaniclastic level interbedded in the coal strata of the former unit was analyzed through LA-MC-ICP-MS method, providing a new absolute age dating of 281.4 ± 3.4 Ma (Cisuralian, Early Permian). This dating is assumed as the oldest occurrence of the L. virkkiae Zone in Paraná Basin, which contains index species that are widespread in other Gondwana basins. A well distributed surface boundary occurs in this section also, allowing local and regional correlations. These new biostratigraphical and geochronological data are integrated, in order to offer a deep analysis on the stratigraphical significance for correlations across the Occidental Gondwana.  相似文献