A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes          下载免费PDF全文

Amy E. East  Andrew W. Stevens  Andrew C. Ritchie  Patrick L. Barnard  Pamela Campbell‐Swarzenski  Brian D. Collins  Christopher H. Conaway 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(12):2562-2577

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

Reply to ‘Wolf‐triggered trophic cascades and stream channel dynamics in Olympic National Park: a comment on East et al. (2017)’ by Robert Beschta and William Ripple          下载免费PDF全文

Amy E. East  Kurt J. Jenkins  Patricia J. Happe  Jennifer A. Bountry  Timothy J. Beechie  Mark C. Mastin  Joel B. Sankey  Timothy J. Randle 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(4):936-939

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Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes     

Lee?FawcettEmail author  Amy?C.?Green 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(8):2233-2252

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.  相似文献   

An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods          下载免费PDF全文

Timothy D. Scheibe  Ellyn M. Murphy  Xingyuan Chen  Amy K. Rice  Kenneth C. Carroll  Bruce J. Palmer  Alexandre M. Tartakovsky  Ilenia Battiato  Brian D. Wood 《Ground water》2015,53(1):38-56

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.  相似文献   

Heterogeneous distributions of CO2 may be more important for dissolution and karstification in coastal eogenetic limestone than mixing dissolution          下载免费PDF全文

Jason D. Gulley  Jonathon B. Martin  Paul J. Moore  Amy Brown  Patricia D. Spellman  John Ezell 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(8):1057-1071

Mixing dissolution, a process whereby mixtures of two waters with different chemical compositions drive undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, is commonly considered to form cavernous macroporosity (e.g. flank margin caves and banana holes) in eogenetic karst aquifers. On small islands, macroporosity commonly originates when focused dissolution forms globular chambers lacking entrances to the surface, suggesting that dissolution processes are decoupled from surface hydrology. Mixing dissolution has been thought to be the primary dissolution process because meteoric water would equilibrate rapidly with calcium carbonate as it infiltrates through matrix porosity and because pCO₂ was assumed to be homogeneously distributed within the phreatic zone. Here, we report data from two abandoned well fields in an eogenetic karst aquifer on San Salvador Island, Bahamas, that demonstrate pCO₂ in the phreatic zone is distributed heterogeneously. The pCO₂ varied from less than log ?2.0 to more than log ?1.0 atm over distances of less than 30 m, generating dissolution in the subsurface where water flows from regions of low to high pCO₂ and cementation where water flows from regions of high to low pCO_2. Using simple geochemical models, we show dissolution caused by heterogeneously distributed pCO₂ can dissolve 2.5 to 10 times more calcite than the maximum amount possible by mixing of freshwater and seawater. Dissolution resulting from spatial variability in pCO₂ forms isolated, globular chambers lacking initial entrances to the surface, a morphology that is characteristic of flank margin caves and banana holes, both of which have entrances that form by erosion or collapse after cave formation. Our results indicate that heterogeneous pCO₂, rather than mixing dissolution, may be the dominant mechanism for observed spatial distribution of dissolution, cementation and macroporosity generation in eogenetic karst aquifers and for landscape development in these settings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

中天山天湖东铁钼矿含矿片麻状花岗岩年代学、地球化学和锆石Hf同位素-对于中天山早古生代构造演化的启示     

雷如雄  吴昌志  屈迅  顾连兴  陈刚  吾尔娜  孙洪涛  刘国宁 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2014,44(5):1540-1552

以中天山东段的天湖东铁钼矿含矿花岗岩为例,在LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学测定其为早古生代花岗岩（（445.3±4.6） Ma）基础上,通过岩相学、地球化学及锆石原位Hf同位素组成等多方面研究,探讨该岩体的成岩作用及其构造背景。天湖东含矿片麻状花岗岩的主要矿物为斜长石、石英、钾长石,并含少量黑云母和角闪石等。全岩地球化学分析结果表明,该片麻状花岗岩高硅、弱富铝、富钙、富钠而贫钾,ASI值为0.68~0.82,属于准铝质钙碱性花岗岩,总体上富集大离子亲石元素（LILE）Rb、Ba等和轻稀土元素La、Ce、Nd等,而亏损高场强元素Nb、Ta、Ti、Yb等,轻重稀土分异明显,轻稀土分异较为明显,而重稀土分异不明显,表现出典型岛弧岩浆岩的地球化学特征。锆石的ε_Hf(445 Ma)值为-6.31~-1.77,二阶段Hf模式年龄（T_DM2）为1.538~1.825 Ga,表明该花岗岩的源区主要为壳源物质。综合分析上述资料,认为天湖东铁钼矿片麻状花岗岩是由俯冲过程中地壳物质重熔的产物。结合前人的研究和本课题组的新近研究成果认为,在早古生代时,中天山为岩浆弧构造环境,形成一系列的钙碱性岩浆岩,而该岩浆弧的形成可能是受到介于吐哈陆块和塔里木板块之间的古天山大洋在早古生代时期向南俯冲而形成的。  相似文献   

Social memory and resilience in New Orleans   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Craig E. Colten  Amy R. Sumpter 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(3):355-364

A key concept in resilience studies is that human societies can learn from hazard events and use their accumulated social memory to better contend with future catastrophes. This article explores the deliberate referral to historical records complied after Hurricane Betsy in 1965 and how they were used to prepare for tropical storms at the time of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Despite proclamations that Louisiana would not repeat its mistakes, hazards planners seriously neglected the historical record.  相似文献   

Changes in vertical distribution and aggregative behaviour in response to population density for larval sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) and sea stars (Asterias rubens)     

Amy Roy  Anna Metaxas  Rémi M. Daigle 《Marine Ecology》2012,33(2):194-204

We examined the effects of the presence of larval conspecifics on larval vertical distribution of four‐arm and six‐arm plutei of Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis and bipinnaria of Asterias rubens, in laboratory experiments, by manipulating population density. Larvae were introduced to experimental columns (10 × 10 × 30 cm) at one of two or three population densities (S. droebachiensis: 0.1 and 10 larvae·ml^?1; A. rubens: 0.1, 1 and 10 larvae·ml^?1). Subsequent changes in vertical distribution were determined from images of the larvae in the columns illuminated by a 532‐nm laser and captured by a high‐resolution camera. Larvae of both species were found higher in the water column in the high than in the low and intermediate population densities. The relationship between vertical swimming velocity and nearest neighbour distance (NND) was measured for four‐arm plutei of S. droebachiensis, and used to determine a range in distances among individuals that may affect potential interactions. The variation in swimming velocity decreased with increasing proximity below a threshold distance among individuals of 10 mm, which was greater than the estimated distance in the high population density. We suggest that the increased larval aggregation near the water surface under high population density is the result of a behavioural response to conspecifics.  相似文献   

Organic carbon inputs,common ions and degassing: rethinking mixing dissolution in coastal eogenetic carbonate aquifers          下载免费PDF全文

Jason D. Gulley  Jonathan B.Martin  Amy Brown 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(14):2098-2110

Caves deliver freshwater from coastal carbonate landscapes to estuaries but how these caves form and grow remains poorly understood. Models suggest fresh and salt water mixing drives dissolution in eogenetic limestone, but have rarely been validated through sampling of mixing waters. Here we assess controls on carbonate mineral saturation states using new and legacy geochemical data that were collected in vertical profiles through three cenotes and one borehole in the Yucatan Peninsula. Results suggest saturation states are primarily controlled by carbon fluxes rather than mixing. Undersaturation predicted by mixing models that rely on idealized end members is diminished or eliminated when end members are collected from above and below actual mixing zones. Undersaturation due to mixing is limited by CO₂ degassing from fresh water in karst windows, which results in calcite supersaturation. With respect to saline groundwater, controls on capacity for mixing dissolution were more varied. Oxidation of organic carbon increased pCO₂ of saline groundwater in caves (pCO₂ = 10^–2.06 to 10^–0.96 atm) relative to matrix porosity (10^–2.39 atm) and local seawater (10^–3.12 atm). The impact of increased pCO₂ on saturation state, however, depended on the geochemical composition of the saline water and the magnitude of organic carbon oxidation. Carbonate undersaturation due to mixing was limited where gypsum dissolution (Cenote Angelita) or sulfate reduction (Cenote Calica) increased concentrations of common ions (Ca²⁺ or HCO₃^?, respectively). Maximum undersaturation was found to occur in mixtures including saline water that had ion concentrations and ratios similar to seawater, but with moderately elevated pCO₂ (Cenote Eden). Undersaturation, however, was dominated by the initial undersaturation of the saline end member, mixing was irrelevant. Our results add to a growing body of literature that suggests oxidation of organic carbon, and not mixing dissolution, is the dominant control on cave formation and enlargement in coastal eogenetic karst aquifers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Earth observations during space shuttle flight STS‐41: Discovery's mission to planet earth     

Kamlesh P. Lulla  Michael R. Helfert  David L. Amsbury  Victor S. Whitehead  Cynthia A. Evans  M. Justin Wilkinson 《国际地球制图》2013,28(1):69-80

Abstract

Multi‐temporal ERS‐1 SAR data acquired over a large agricultural region in West Bengal was used to classify kharif crops like rice, jute and sugarcane. Rice crop grown under lowland management practice showed a temporal characteristic. The dynamic range of backscatter was highest for this crop in temporal SAR data. This was used to classify rice using temporal SAR data. Such temporal character was not observed for the other study crops, which may be due to the difference in cultivation practice and crop calendar. Significant increase in backscatter from the ploughed fields was used to derive information on onset and duration of land preparations. Synergistic use of optical remote sensing data and SAR data increased the separability of rice crop from homesteads and permanent vegetation classes.  相似文献