Searching for Added Value in Simulating Climate Extremes with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model over Western Canada     

Charles L. Curry  Bárbara Tencer  Kirien Whan  Andrew J. Weaver  Michel Giguère  Edward Wiebe 《大气与海洋》2016,54(4):364-384

We evaluate the capacity of a regional climate model to represent observed extreme temperature and precipitation events and also examine the impact of increased resolution, in an effort to identify added value in this respect. Two climate simulations of western Canada (WCan) were conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4) at 15 (CRCM15) and 45?km (CRCM45) horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) for the period 1973–1995. The simulations were evaluated using the spline-interpolated dataset ANUSPLIN, a daily observational gridded surface temperature and precipitation product with a nominal resolution of approximately 10?km. We examine a range of climate extremes, comprising the 10th and 90th percentiles of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures, the 90th percentile of daily precipitation (PR90), and the 27 core Climate Daily Extremes (CLIMDEX) indices.

Both simulations exhibit cold biases compared with observations over WCan, with the bias exacerbated at higher resolution, suggesting little added value for temperature overall. There are instances, however, of regional improvement in the spatial pattern of temperature extremes at the higher resolution of CRCM15 (e.g., the CLIMDEX index for the annual number of days when TX?>?25°C). The high-resolution simulations also reveal similarly localized features in precipitation (e.g., rain shadows) that are not resolved at the 45?km resolution. With regard to precipitation extremes, although both simulations generally display wet biases, CRCM15 features a reduced bias in PR90 in all seasons except winter. This improvement occurs despite the fact that spatial and interannual variability of PR90 in CRCM15 is significantly overestimated relative to both CRCM45 and ANUSPLIN. We posit that these characteristics are the result of demonstrable differences between corresponding topographical datasets used in the gridded observations and CRCM, the resulting errors propagated to physical variables tied to elevation and the beneficial effect of subsequent spatial averaging. Because topographical input is often discordant between simulations and gridded observations, it is argued that a limited form of spatial averaging may contribute added value beyond that which has already been noted in previous studies with respect to small-scale climate variability.  相似文献   

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil     

Daniele Barroca Marra Alves  Luiz Fernando Sapucci  Haroldo Antonio Marques  Eniuce Menezes de Souza  Tayná Aparecida Ferreira Gouveia  Jackes Akira Magário 《GPS Solutions》2016,20(4):677-685

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.  相似文献   

Use of cartographic images by expert and novice field geologists in planning fieldwork routes     

Kathleen M. Baker  Andrew C. Johnson  Caitlin N. Callahan  Heather L. Petcovic 《制图学和地理信息科学》2016,43(2):176-187

Topographic maps and aerial photographs are particularly useful when geoscientists are faced with fieldwork tasks such as selecting paths for observation, establishing sampling schemes, or defining field regions. These types of images are crucial in bedrock geologic mapping, a cognitively complex field-based problem-solving task. Geologic mapping requires the geologist to correctly identify rock types and three-dimensional bedrock structures from often partial or poor-quality outcrop data while navigating through unfamiliar terrain. This paper compares the walked routes of novice to expert geologists working in the field (n = 66) with the results of a route planning and navigation survey of a similar population of geologists (n = 77). Results show clearly that those geologists with previous mapping experience make quick and decisive determinations about field areas from available imagery and maps, regardless of whether they are or not physically present in the field area. Recognition of geologic features enabled experts to form and verbalize a specific plan for travel through a landscape based on those features. Novices were less likely to develop specific travel route plans and were less likely to identify critical landscape cues from aerial photographs.  相似文献   

Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009     

Andrew J. Shatz  Florencia Sangermano  Jennifer Miller  Arthur Elmes 《国际地球制图》2016,31(8):813-831

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.  相似文献   

Wind-wave prediction equations for probabilistic offshore hurricane hazard analysis     

Vahid Valamanesh  Andrew T. Myers  Sanjay R. Arwade  Jerome F. Hajjar  Eric Hines  Weichiang Pang 《Natural Hazards》2016,83(1):541-562

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Limited differences among habitats in deep‐sea macro‐infaunal communities off New Zealand: implications for their vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance          下载免费PDF全文

Daniel Leduc  Ashley A. Rowden  Malcolm R. Clark  David A. Bowden  Andrew R. Thurber 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):845-866

The spread of human activities into the deep sea may pose a high risk to benthic communities and affect ecosystem integrity. The deep sea is characterized by physical and biological heterogeneity and different habitat types are likely to differ in their vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts. However, across‐habitat comparisons are rare, and no comprehensive ecological risk assessment has yet been developed. To address this gap in our knowledge, we compared macro‐infaunal community structure in four habitats (slope, canyons, seamounts and methane seeps) at depths between 700 and 1500 m in the Hikurangi Margin and Bay of Plenty regions off New Zealand. The most striking contrast in community structure was between the two study regions, due to an order of magnitude difference in macro‐infaunal abundance that we believe was caused by differences in surface productivity and food availability at the sea bed. We found differences in structural and functional attributes of macro‐infaunal communities among some habitats in the Hikurangi Margin (slope, canyon and seep), but not in the Bay of Plenty. We posit that differences between canyon and slope communities on the Hikurangi Margin are due to enhanced food availability inside canyons compared with adjacent slope habitats. Seep communities were characterized by elevated abundance of both symbiont‐bearing and heterotrophic taxa, and were the most distinct, and variable, among the habitats that we considered on the Hikurangi Margin. Communities of seamounts were not distinct from slope or canyon communities on the Hikurangi Margin, probably reflecting similar environmental conditions in these habitats. The communities of deep‐sea canyon and seep habitats on the Hikurangi Margin were sufficiently dissimilar from each other and from slope habitats to warrant separate management consideration. By contrast, the low dissimilarity between communities of canyon and slope habitats in the Bay of Plenty suggests that habitat‐based management is not required in this region, for macro‐infauna at least. Although the two study regions share similar species pools, populations of the Hikurangi Margin region may be less vulnerable than the sparser populations of the Bay of Plenty due to the higher availability of potential colonizers and faster population growth. Thus regions, and habitats in some regions, should be subject to separate ecological risk assessment to help identify the key risks and consequences of human activities, and to inform options for reducing or mitigating impacts.  相似文献   

Benthic Carbon Mineralization and Nutrient Turnover in a Scottish Sea Loch: An Integrative In Situ Study   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ronnie N. Glud  Peter Berg  Henrik Stahl  Andrew Hume  Morten Larsen  Bradley D. Eyre  Perran L. M. Cook 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2016,22(5-6):443-467

Based on in situ microprofiles, chamber incubations and eddy covariance measurements, we investigated the benthic carbon mineralization and nutrient regeneration in a ~65-m-deep sedimentation basin of Loch Etive, UK. The sediment hosted a considerable amount of infauna that was dominated by the brittle star A. filiformis. The numerous burrows were intensively irrigated enhancing the benthic in situ O₂ uptake by ~50 %, and inducing highly variable redox conditions and O₂ distribution in the surface sediment as also documented by complementary laboratory-based planar optode measurements. The average benthic O₂ exchange as derived by chamber incubations and the eddy covariance approach were similar (14.9 ± 2.5 and 13.1 ± 9.0 mmol m^?2 day^?1) providing confidence in the two measuring approaches. Moreover, the non-invasive eddy approach revealed a flow-dependent benthic O₂ flux that was partly ascribed to enhanced ventilation of infauna burrows during periods of elevated flow rates. The ratio in exchange rates of ΣCO₂ and O₂ was close to unity, confirming that the O₂ uptake was a good proxy for the benthic carbon mineralization in this setting. The infauna activity resulted in highly dynamic redox conditions that presumably facilitated an efficient degradation of both terrestrial and marine-derived organic material. The complex O₂ dynamics of the burrow environment also concurrently stimulated nitrification and coupled denitrification rates making the sediment an efficient sink for bioavailable nitrogen. Furthermore, bioturbation mediated a high efflux of dissolved phosphorus and silicate. The study documents a high spatial and temporal variation in benthic solute exchange with important implications for benthic turnover of organic carbon and nutrients. However, more long-term in situ investigations with like approaches are required to fully understand how environmental events and spatio-temporal variations interrelate to the overall biogeochemical functioning of coastal sediments.  相似文献   

Identification of Uranyl Minerals Using Oxygen K‐Edge X‐Ray Absorption Spectroscopy          下载免费PDF全文

Jesse D. Ward  Mark Bowden  C. Tom Resch  Steven Smith  Bruce K. McNamara  Edgar C. Buck  Gregory C. Eiden  Andrew M. Duffin 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(1):135-148

Although most of the world's uranium exists as pitchblende or uraninite, this mineral can be weathered to a great variety of secondary uranium minerals, most containing the uranyl cation. Anthropogenic uranium compounds can also react in the environment, leading to spatial–chemical alterations that could be useful for nuclear forensics analyses. Soft X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) has the advantages of being non‐destructive, element‐specific and sensitive to electronic and physical structure. The soft X‐ray probe can also be focused to a spot size on the order of tens of nanometres, providing chemical information with high spatial resolution. However, before XAS can be applied at high spatial resolution, it is necessary to find spectroscopic signatures for a variety of uranium compounds in the soft X‐ray spectral region. To that end, we collected the near edge X‐ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectra of a variety of common uranyl‐bearing minerals, including uranyl carbonates, oxyhydroxides, phosphates and silicates. We find that uranyl compounds can be distinguished by class (carbonate, oxyhydroxide, phosphate or silicate) based on their oxygen K‐edge absorption spectra. This work establishes a database of reference spectra for future spatially resolved analyses. We proceed to show scanning X‐ray transmission microscopy (STXM) data from a schoepite particle in the presence of an unknown contaminant.  相似文献   

Adsorption of copper (II) on mesoporous silica: the effect of nano-scale confinement     

Andrew W. Knight  Austen B. Tigges  Anastasia G. Ilgen 《Geochemical transactions》2018,19(1):13

Nano-scale spatial confinement can alter chemistry at mineral–water interfaces. These nano-scale confinement effects can lead to anomalous fate and transport behavior of aqueous metal species. When a fluid resides in a nanoporous environments (pore size under 100 nm), the observed density, surface tension, and dielectric constant diverge from those measured in the bulk. To evaluate the impact of nano-scale confinement on the adsorption of copper (Cu²⁺), we performed batch adsorption studies using mesoporous silica. Mesoporous silica with the narrow distribution of pore diameters (SBA-15; 8, 6, and 4 nm pore diameters) was chosen since the silanol functional groups are typical to surface environments. Batch adsorption isotherms were fit with adsorption models (Langmuir, Freundlich, and Dubinin–Radushkevich) and adsorption kinetic data were fit to a pseudo-first-order reaction model. We found that with decreasing pore size, the maximum surface area-normalized uptake of Cu²⁺ increased. The pseudo-first-order kinetic model demonstrates that the adsorption is faster as the pore size decreases from 8 to 4 nm. We attribute these effects to the deviations in fundamental water properties as pore diameter decreases. In particular, these effects are most notable in SBA-15 with a 4-nm pore where the changes in water properties may be responsible for the enhanced Cu mobility, and therefore, faster Cu adsorption kinetics.  相似文献   

Upstream—Downstream Shifts in Peak Recruitment of the Native Olympia Oyster in San Francisco Bay During Wet and Dry Years     

Andrew L. Chang  Lindsay J. Sullivan  Steven G. Morgan  Matthew C. Ferner 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(1):65-78

Understanding the conditions that drive variation in recruitment of key estuarine species can be important for effective conservation and management of their populations. The Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) is native to the Pacific coast of North America and has been a target of conservation efforts, though relatively little information on larval recruitment exists across much of its range. This study examined the recruitment of Olympia oysters at biweekly to monthly intervals at four sites in northern San Francisco Bay from 2010 to 2015 (except 2013). Mean monthly temperatures warmed at all sites during the study, while winter (January–April) mean monthly salinity decreased significantly during a wet year (2011), but otherwise remained high as a result of a drought. A recurring peak in oyster recruitment was identified in mid-estuary, in conditions corresponding to a salinity range of 25–30 and >16 °C at the time of settlement (April–November). Higher average salinities and temperatures were positively correlated with greater peak recruitment. Interannual variation in the timing of favorable conditions for recruitment at each site appears to explain geographic and temporal variation in recruitment onset. Higher winter/spring salinities and warmer temperatures at the time of recruitment corresponded with earlier recruitment onset within individual sites. Across all sites, higher winter/spring salinities were also correlated with earlier onset and earlier peak recruitment. Lower winter salinities during 2011 also resulted in a downstream shift in the location of peak recruitment.  相似文献