Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?     

Fabio?OrianiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Raj?Mehrotra  Grégoire?Mariethoz  Julien?Straubhaar  Ashish?Sharma  Philippe?Renard 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(2):321-340

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.  相似文献   

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability     

Gottfried Grünthal  Dietrich Stromeyer  Christian Bosse  Fabrice Cotton  Dino Bindi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4339-4395

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.  相似文献   

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise     

Johannes Becherer  Jacobus Hofstede  Ulf Gräwe  Kaveh Purkiani  Elisabeth Schulz  Hans Burchard 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(1):131-151

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.  相似文献   

Morphological signatures of deglaciation and postglacial sedimentary processes in a deep fjord-lake (Grand Lake,Labrador)     

Annie-Pier Trottier  Patrick Lajeunesse  Antoine Gagnon-Poiré  Pierre Francus 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(4):928-947

High-resolution multibeam bathymetric data and acoustic sub-bottom profiles were recently collected in Grand Lake (Labrador), one of the deepest lake basins in eastern North America, to reconstruct: (1) the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) west of Lake Melville and (2) the history of sedimentation since deglaciation in this 54 km-long, 3 km-wide fjord-lake. Our results provide a morphostratigraphical framework that brings new insights to the style and pattern of retreat of the LIS in the region, as well as deglacial and postglacial sedimentary dynamics. Terrestrial glacial lineations observed on a digital elevation model (DEM) provide evidence of a previously undocumented ice stream in the Grand Lake area. This newly mapped ice stream suggests that the calving bay formed in Lake Melville triggered a reorganization of the regional drainage pattern of the LIS. The sedimentary infill of Grand Lake consists of a sequence of deglacial to postglacial sediments that contain deposits related to a series of mass movements. The 8.2 cal ka BP cold event is recorded in Grand Lake by a series of closely spaced moraines deposited at the outlet of the fjord-lake to form a morainic complex similar to the Cockburn morainic complex on Baffin Island. During deglaciation, a dense dendritic network of proglacial gullies incised into the steep sidewalls of the lake. Since deglaciation, paraglacial and postglacial sedimentation has led to the deposition of large prograding deltas at the fjord head, where density currents remain active today and have formed a series of sediment waves on the frontal slopes and a prodeltaic environment. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Identifying saline wetlands in an arid desert climate using Landsat remote sensing imagery. Application on Ouargla Basin,southeastern Algeria     

Fethi Medjani  Belkacem Aissani  Sofiane Labar  Mohamed Djidel  Danielle Ducrot  Antoine Masse  C. Mei-Ling Hamilton 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(7):176

Supervised and unsupervised satellite image classifications have progressed greatly in recent years. However, discrimination difficulties still remain among classes that directly affecting data extraction and surface mapping accuracy. The Ouargla region in southeastern Algeria is intersected by wadis, where direct communication between the shallow groundwater table and these dry, overlying ephemeral stream beds exists. Underflowing groundwater exfiltrates into low-lying aeolian blowouts or endorheic basins forming oases, chotts, and sebkhas, commonly known as saline wetlands. These wetlands are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic stress, resulting in significant water degradation. Wetland microclimates are very important to arid regions, as they promote oasis ecosystem sustainability and preservation. High water salinity in these ecosystems, however, directly affects flourishing habitat and undermines successful desert oasis development. The objective of this work is to choose the best classification method to identify saline wetlands by comparison between the different results of land use mapping within the Ouargla basin. Landsat ETM+ (2000) satellite imagery, using visual analysis with colored compositions, has identified various forms of saline wetlands in the Ouargla region desert environment in southeast Algeria. The results show that supervised classification is validated in the identification of Saharan saline wetlands, and that support vector machine (SVM) algorithm presents the best overall accuracy.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Flare-Shaped Acoustic Anomalies in the Water Column Along the Ecuadorian Margin: Relationship with Active Tectonics and Gas Hydrates     

Francois Michaud  Jean-Noël Proust  Alexandre Dano  Jean-Yves Collot  Grâce Daniella Guiyeligou  María José Hernández Salazar  Gueorgui Ratzov  Carlos Martillo  Hugo Pouderoux  Laure Schenini  Jean-Frederic Lebrun  Glenda Loayza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(4):1429-1429

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Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling     

Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi  Jeoung Seok Yoon  Oliver Heidbach  Arno Zang  Gottfried Grünthal 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):671-680

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.  相似文献   

Corrective pattern-matching simulation with controlled local-mean histogram   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Corentin Faucher  Antoine Saucier  Denis Marcotte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(8):2027-2050

This paper presents a new stochastic simulation method that improves on our unilateral patchwork simulation method (Faucher et al., Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 27:253–273, 2012) by eliminating anisotropy biases. As in our unilateral method, images are built by assembling patterns together while controlling the local-mean histogram. The patterns, which are square image-pieces, are picked in a reference image. The reference image is used as a data bank holding the statistical informations about the random field to simulate. In contrast with the unilateral method, the path followed by our new simulation is random and guided by local errors. The new method, called corrective pattern-matching simulation, proceeds iteratively by making local corrections to the simulated image. For several types of images, it is shown that our simulations respect conditioning data and reproduce faithfully the reference image visual appearance. It is shown that the control of the local-mean histogram allows to control one-point statistics and multi-point statistics.  相似文献   

Thermal analysis of fractures at Cerberus Fossae, Mars: Detection of air convection in the porous debris apron     

R. Antoine  T. Lopez  M. Rabinowicz 《Icarus》2011,214(2):433-446

This study investigates the cause of high nighttime temperatures within Cerberus Fossae, a system of fractures affecting the Central Elysium Planitia. The inner parts (walls and floor) of the fractures are up to 40 K warmer than the surrounding plains. However, several temperature profiles exhibit a local temperature minima occurring in the central part of the fractures. We examined first the influence of cooling efficiency at night in the case of a strong reduction of the sky proportion induced by the fracture’s geometry. However, the lack of correlation between temperature and sky proportion, calculated from extracted Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) profiles argues against this hypothesis. Albedo variations were considered but appear to be limited within the fractures, and are generally not correlated with the temperatures. Variations of the thermal properties of bedrocks exposures, debris aprons and sand dunes inferred from high-resolution images do not either correlate with temperature variations within the fractures. As none of these factors taken alone, or combined, can satisfactorily explain the temperature variations within and near the fracture, we suggest that geothermal heat transported by air convection within the porous debris aprons may contribute to explain high temperatures at night and the local minima on the fracture floor. The conditions for the occurrence of the suggested phenomenon and the consequences on the surface temperature are numerically explored. A conservative geothermal gradient of 20 mW/m² was used in the simulations, this value being consistent with either inferred lithosphere elastic thicknesses below the shield volcanoes of the Tharsis dome or values predicted from numerical simulations of the thermal evolution of Mars. The model results indicate that temperature differences of 10-20 K between the central and upper parts of the fracture are explained in the case of high Darcy velocities which require high permeability values (5 × 10⁻⁶ m²). The presence of coarse material composing the debris aprons may explain why this key criteria was met in the context of Cerberus Fossae.  相似文献   

UV transit observations of EUV-heated expanded thermospheres of Earth-like exoplanets around M-stars: testing atmosphere evolution scenarios     

H. Lammer  V. Eybl  K. G. Kislyakova  J. Weingrill  M. Holmstr?m  M. L. Khodachenko  Yu. N. Kulikov  A. Reiners  M. Leitzinger  P. Odert  M. Xiang?Gr��?  B. Dorner  M. G��del  A. Hanslmeier 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,335(1):39-50

The detection and investigation of EUV heated, extended and non-hydrostatic upper atmospheres around terrestrial exoplanets would provide important insights into the interaction of the host stars plasma environment as well as the evolution of Earth-type planets their atmospheres and possible magnetic environments. We discuss different scenarios where one can expect that Earth-like planets should experience non-hydrostatic upper atmosphere conditions so that dynamically outward flowing neutral atoms can interact with the stellar plasma flow so that huge hydrogen coronae and energetic neutral atoms (ENA) can be produced via charge exchange. By observing the size of the extended upper atmospheres and related ENA-clouds and by determining the velocities of the surrounding hydrogen atoms, conclusions can be drawn in respect to the origin of these features. Due to the large number of M-type stars in our neighbourhood and their long periods of strong and moderate stellar activity in comparison to G-stars, we expect that M-type stars represent the most promising candidates for the detection of hydrogen ENA-clouds and the subsequent study of the interaction between the host star and the planets?? upper atmosphere. We show that the low mass of M-type stars also makes them preferable targets to observe extended hydrogen clouds around terrestrial exoplanets with a mass as low as one Earth mass. Transit follow-up observations in the UV-range of terrestrial exoplanets around M-type stars with space observatories such as the World Space Observatory-UV (WSO-UV) would provide a unique opportunity to shed more light on the early evolution of Earth-like planets, including those of our own Solar System.  相似文献