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Galina V. Surkova Victor S. Arkhipkin Alexander V. Kislov 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(4):548-559
Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961–2000) and future (2046–2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961–2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century. 相似文献
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Methods of statistical analysis and GIS Sakhalin Shelf have been used to reconstruct the annual variations of water temperature, salinity, and density from the surface to the bed at 60 standard oceanographic stations on northeastern Sakhalin shelf (with the total duration of observations of ～40 years). Numerical simulation using Bergen University oceanic model has been applied to calculate the spatial fields of water temperature and salinity at standard horizons in nodes of a regular grid. The analysis of calculation results revealed new features of the hydrological regime and gave previously unknown thermohaline fields with maximal detail for full annual cycle. The obtained data were used to evaluate the mean monthly three-dimensional water circulation. 相似文献
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The interdecadal and interannual variability of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST), presented by the first and second modes of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), respectively, is studied using the 1951–2000 data. It is demonstrated that the spatial and temporal structure of the first EOF mode, reflecting interdecadal SST variations, is similar in all seasons, and, thus, is a manifestation of a global signal that is not subject to significant seasonal changes and whose origin is common for all seasons. On the contrary, the second EOF mode, reflecting the interannual variability of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature and presented by a zonally oriented dipole, demonstrates its well pronounced seasonality. It is found that the character of temporal variability of this mode is specific for each season. The seasonality is also pronounced in significant variability of the mode contribution to the total SST variability. The above-noted seasonal differences are indicative of various mechanisms of formation of the interannual SST variability in the Mediterranean Sea. 相似文献
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The distribution of dissolved Sr, Ca, F, and B in the mouths of small streams and the coastal areas of Golubaya and Gelendzhic bays is studied. 相似文献
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Interannual and longer-period variability of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature is studied in terms of standard deviations and linear trends based on the 1951–2000 data. It is shown that both standard deviations and linear SST trends in the Mediterranean Sea are clearly season-dependent. Seasonality of standard deviations is characterized by a zonally-oriented seesaw with opposite changes in standard deviations in the western and eastern parts of the basin from season to season. The SST trend seasonality is pronounced in winter in predominant negative SST trends, and in summer in positive trends. Such seasonal differences indicate that long-term Mediterranean SST variability has different mechanisms of formation. 相似文献
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Sakhalinskii Shelf information and analytical GIS based on observational data is used to simulate hydrological parameter values at standard horizons of stationary stations in the La Perouse Strait. The spatial and temporal distribution pattern for oceanographic parameters has been obtained. Water masses and water structures have been identified using classic T, S-analysis. Volumetric T, S-analysis of waters is used to evaluate the volumes, heat content, and salinity of the water masses chosen. For the first time, information for the winter season, which is the least investigated season and for which no generalizations whatsoever have been made until the present, has been obtained.Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2005, pp. 18–27.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Pishchalnik, Arkhipkin, Leonov. 相似文献
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The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate. 相似文献
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Unstable wave disturbance parameters and their seasonal variability are considered using a multi-level quasi-geostropic model of a large-scale current. It has been postulated that hydrodynamically unstable processes become more intensive during the winter-spring period, with the dominating wavelength being 600 km and the period 350 days. The decay of the Equatorial Countercurrent in spring is related to a mixed type of hydrodynamic instability and to the generation of planetary waves. During the summerautumn period, when the Equatorial Countercurrent's hydrodynamic instability is developing, meandering occurs, with the lengths of the waves, slowly migrating across the ocean in an easterly direction, being 950–1500 km.Translated by V. Puchkin. 相似文献