The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results     

Karin Şeşetyan  Laurentiu Danciu  Mine B. Demircioğlu Tümsa  Domenico Giardini  Mustafa Erdik  Sinan Akkar  Levent Gülen  Mehdi Zare  Shota Adamia  Anooshiravan Ansari  Avetis Arakelyan  Ayşegül Askan  Mher Avanesyan  Hektor Babayan  Tamaz Chelidze  Raffi Durgaryan  Ata Elias  Hossein Hamzehloo  Khaled Hessami  Doğan Kalafat  Özkan Kale  Arkady Karakhanyan  Muhammad Asif Khan  Tahir Mammadli  Mahmood Al-Qaryouti  Mohammad Sayab  Nino Tsereteli  Murat Utkucu  Otar Varazanashvili  Muhammad Waseem  Hilal Yalçın  Mustafa Tolga Yılmaz 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3535-3566

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).  相似文献   

3D numerical simulation of flow field around twin piles     

Ata Amini  Akram Asadi Parto 《Acta Geophysica》2017,65(6):1243-1251

In this study to identify the flow pattern and local scour mechanism around pile groups, the flow field was simulated using FLOW-3D software. A pair of pile on a flat-bed channel with side by side and tandem arrangements was investigated. To establish Navier–Stokes equations, the RNGk-ε turbulence model was used and the results were verified using experimental data. In case of FLOW-3D capability, it was found that the software was able to properly simulate the expected interaction between the pile groups. The results of flow field simulation showed that Reynolds number and the pile spacing are the most influential variables in forming vortices. The flow around tandem pile and the downward flow around wake vortices were more intense and complicate in comparison with side by side arrangements and single pile.  相似文献   

Modeling of trophospheric ozone concentrations using genetically trained multi-level cellular neural networks     

H. Kurtulus OZCAN  Erdem BILGILI  Ulku SAHIN  O. Nuri UCAN  Cuma BAYAT 《大气科学进展》2007,24(5):907-914

Tropospheric ozone concentrations, which are an important air pollutant, are modeled by the use of an artificial intelligence structure. Data obtained from air pollution measurement stations in the city of Istanbul are utilized in constituting the model. A supervised algorithm for the evaluation of ozone concentration using a genetically trained multi-level cellular neural network （ML-CNN） is introduced, developed, and applied to real data. A genetic algorithm is used in the optimization of CNN templates. The model results and the actual measurement results are compared and statistically evaluated. It is observed that seasonal changes in ozone concentrations are reflected effectively by the concentrations estimated by the multilevel-CNN model structure, with a correlation value of 0.57 ascertained between actual and model results. It is shown that the multilevel-CNN modeling technique is as satisfactory as other modeling techniques in associating the data in a complex medium in air pollution applications.  相似文献   

Relative importance of parameters affecting wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks     

M. A. Ghorbani  R. Khatibi  B. Hosseini  M. Bilgili 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):107-114

In traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) models, the relative importance of the individual meteorological input variables is often overlooked. A case study is presented in this paper to model monthly wind speed values using meteorological data (air pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), where the study also includes an estimate of the relative importance of these variables. Recorded monthly mean data are available at a gauging site in Tabriz, Azerbaijan, Iran, for the period from 2000 to 2005, gauged in the city at the outskirt of alluvial funneling mountains with an established microclimatic conditions and a diurnal wind regime. This provides a sufficiently severe test for the ANN model with a good predictive capability of 1 year of lead time but without any direct approach to refer the predicted results to local microclimatic conditions. A method is used in this paper to calculate the relative importance of each meteorological input parameters affecting wind speed, showing that air pressure and precipitation are the most and least influential parameters with approximate values of 40 and 10 %, respectively. This gained knowledge corresponds to the local knowledge of the microclimatic and geomorphologic conditions surrounding Tabriz.  相似文献   

A multi‐temporal analysis of AMSR‐E data for flood and discharge monitoring during the 2008 flood in Iowa     

Marouane Temimi  Teodosio Lacava  Tarendra Lakhankar  Valerio Tramutoli  Hosni Ghedira  Riadh Ata  Reza Khanbilvardi 《水文研究》2011,25(16):2623-2634

The objective of this work is to demonstrate the potential of using passive microwave data to monitor flood and discharge conditions and to infer watershed hydraulic and hydrologic parameters. The case study is the major flood in Iowa in summer 2008. A new Polarisation Ratio Variation Index (PRVI) was developed based on a multi‐temporal analysis of 37 GHz satellite imagery from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR‐E) to calculate and detect anomalies in soil moisture and/or inundated areas. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) which is a change detection approach based on the analysis of historical satellite records was adopted. A rating curve has been developed to assess the relationship between PRVI values and discharge observations downstream. A time‐lag term has been introduced and adjusted to account for the changing delay between PRVI and streamflow. Moreover, the Kalman filter has been used to update the rating curve parameters in near real time. The temporal variability of the b exponent in the rating curve formula shows that it converges toward a constant value. A consistent 21‐day time lag, very close to an estimate of the time of concentration, was obtained. The agreement between observed discharge downstream and estimated discharge with and without parameters adjustment was 65 and 95%, respectively. This demonstrates the interesting role that passive microwave can play in monitoring flooding and wetness conditions and estimating key hydrologic parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The 73-day periodicity of the flare index during the current solar cycle 22     

Atila Özgüç  Tamer Ataç 《Solar physics》1994,150(1-2):339-346

The flare index of the current solar cycle 22 is analysed to detect periodicities. Power spectral analysis of the time series of solar flare index data reveals a periodicity around 73 and 53 days. We find that a periodicity of 73 days was in operation from November 1988 to the end of December 1991. We also find that when the 73-day periodicity or the 154-day periodicity is in operation the flare index is well correlated with the relative sunspot numbers.  相似文献   

Periodic behavior of solar flare index during solar cycles 20 and 21     

Atila Özgüç  Tamer Ataç 《Solar physics》1989,123(2):357-365

Short-term periodicities of solar activity were studied with the flare index by using Discrete Fourier Transform for the time interval 1966–1986. Two noticeable periodicities (18.5 and 5 months) have been found. The existence of these periodicities comparing with the early findings is discussed.  相似文献   

Shoal formation in the Piscataqua River,New Hampshire     

Ata Bilgili  M. Robinson Swift  Barbaros Celikkol 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(3):518-525

The formation of a shoal was investigated in the Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, which is a well-mixed channel with low freshwater flow and tidal currents up to 2.3 m s^?1. Observations of sediment characteristics, bathymetry, and bottom current were made, and theory was used to predict bedload transport. Sediment sampling showed the bottom material to be coarse sand and gravel, and sidescan sonar revealed large sand waves directed upriver at the shoal. Bottom current measurements were made along transects upriver and downriver of the shoal and downriver of an adjacent deepwater area that was also studied for comparison. Bedload flux inferred from current measurements using the Brown-Einstein theory indicated that transport is generally directed upriver. Sediment budget calculations showed the shoal area to be depositional before, immediately after, and subsequent to a dredging operation at rates of 0.36 m yr^?1, 1.06 m yr^?1, and 0.35 m yr^?1, respectively. Predredge and subsequent rates were consistent with the historical record of removal by dredging at the shoal.  相似文献   

On the short term variations of solar activity during solar cycle 21     

Tamer Ataç 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1989,47(2):165-170

Short-term variations of the last solar activity cycle were studied by the flare and coronal indices using Gleissberg method. Systematic short-term variations are found from their course during the 21st solar activity cycle. Comparison of their autocorrelograms constructed by the new set of data obtained from the magnitude of the fluctuations showed us the existence of the phase shift between the temporal variations of the two indices.  相似文献   

The Ionospheric foF2 Data over Istanbul and their Response to Solar Activity for the Years 1964–1969 and 1993     

A. Özgüç  T. Ataç  Y. Tulunay  I. Stanislawska 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1998,42(2):112-118

A Polish-made vertical ionosonde (VI) has been operated at the Kandilli Observatory in Istanbul, for almost one year (May 1993 - April 1994) as part of the COST 238, PRIME Project, The critical frequencies were obtained for every half-hour interval. The data obtained during this campaign, on the descending branch of solar cycle 22, and the data measured earlier in Istanbul for cycle 20 were analysed and the characteristic behaviour of the F2 region ionosphere over Istanbul has been determined. This is a unique data set for this area. Several markers of the solar cycle activities in terms of the daily relative sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar radio flux and solar flare index, and the magnetic daily index of Ap were then used to seek the possible influence of the solar and ionospheric activities on the critical frequencies observed in Istanbul. It was found that the solar flare index, as a solar activity index, was more reliable in determining quiet ionospheric days. It is shown that the minimum and maximum time values of the solar activity are more convenient for ionospheric prediction and modelling.  相似文献