Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Robert K. Kaufmann  Heikki Kauppi  Michael L. Mann  James H. Stock 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):729-743

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.  相似文献   

Cleaning sky survey data bases using Hough transform and renewal string approaches     

A. J. Storkey  N. C. Hambly  C. K. I. Williams  R. G. Mann 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,347(1):36-51

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The SCUBA 8-mJy survey – I. Submillimetre maps, sources and number counts     

S. E.Scott  M. J.Fox  J. S.Dunlop  S.Serjeant  J. A.Peacock  R. J.Ivison  S.Oliver  R. G.Mann  A.Lawrence  A.Efstathiou  M.Rowan-Robinson  D. H.Hughes  E. N.Archibald  A.Blain  M.Longair 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,331(4):817-838

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Editor's note     

C. John Mann 《Mathematical Geology》1987,19(8):861-864

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Book reviews     

Thomas A. Jones  C. John Mann  Thomas A. Jones 《Mathematical Geology》1989,21(8):947-955

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An example of type IV minute scale pulsations and the standing magnetoacoustic wave model     

H. Aurass  G. Mann 《Solar physics》1987,112(2):359-364

An example of m-Dm solar radio pulsations consisting of a mixture of different minute scale periodic components is discussed. The ratios of the observed periods are independent on the observing frequency. They can be reproduced by the pulsation model of standing magnetoacoustic waves in coronal flux tubes driven by trapped protons.  相似文献   

Carbon isotope stratigraphy of Lochkovian to Eifelian limestones from the Devonian of central and southern Europe     

Werner?BuggischEmail author  Ulrich?Mann 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(4):521-541

Lower to Middle Devonian carbonates of the Prague Syncline, the Carnic Alps, the Montagne Noire, and the Cantabrian Mountains were investigated for δ¹³C_carb and δ¹³C_org. These values were measured on bulk rocks, selected components and cements. Many carbonates exhibit primary marine values, but some are altered by diagenesis. A δ¹³C curve can be presented for the latest Pridolian to Emsian time interval. Several sharp or broad positive excursions are obvious in the woschmidti-postwoschmidti, sulcatus, kitabicus, Late serotinus, and kockelianus conodont zones. The excursion at the Silurian–Devonian boundary is known worldwide and therefore considered global in nature. Some of the others are described for the first time from central and southern Europe, and their global nature has to be verified by further investigations in other regions. Most excursions relate to and/or started during major regressions whereas sea-level highstands correspond to minimal δ¹³C values. Similar relationships between sea-level changes and δ¹³C have been observed from other early Palaeozoic intervals. The transgressive Chote? (?) and Ka?ák events are marked by positive isotope excursions, this type of combination is usually observed in late Palaeozoic to Cenozoic black shale events.  相似文献   

Dust Detection by the Wave Instrument on STEREO: Nanoparticles Picked up by the Solar Wind?     

Meyer-Vernet  N.  Maksimovic  M.  Czechowski  A.  Mann  I.  Zouganelis  I.  Goetz  K.  Kaiser  M. L.  St. Cyr  O. C.  Bougeret  J.-L.  Bale  S. D. 《Solar physics》2009,256(1-2):463-474

Solar Physics - The STEREO wave instrument (S/WAVES) has detected a very large number of intense voltage pulses. We suggest that these events are produced by impact ionisation of nanoparticles...  相似文献   

Should political ecology be Marxist? A case for Gramsci’s historical materialism     

Geoff Mann 《Geoforum》2009,40(3):335-344

This paper investigates some aspects of political ecology’s relation to Marxism, specifically its ties to Marxism’s “historical materialism”. I argue Gramsci is an essential feature in the reinvigoration of that relation, and that political ecology should be Marxist, if by Marxist we mean Gramscian. I focus on the concept of hegemony, arguing that Gramsci’s historical materialism, in contrast to the Engelsian tradition within which most materialism is snared, allows us to take account of both moments in Gramsci’s hegemony, the “economic” and the “ethicopolitical”.  相似文献   

Photometric,spectral phase and temperature effects on 4 Vesta and HED meteorites: Implications for the Dawn mission     

Vishnu Reddy  Juan A. Sanchez  Andreas Nathues  Nicholas A. Moskovitz  Jian-Yang Li  Edward A. Cloutis  Ken Archer  Roy A. Tucker  Michael J. Gaffey  J. Paul Mann  Holger Sierks  Ulrich Schade 《Icarus》2012,217(1):153-168

Phase angle and temperature are two important parameters that affect the photometric and spectral behavior of planetary surfaces in telescopic and spacecraft data. We have derived photometric and spectral phase functions for the Asteroid 4 Vesta, the first target of the Dawn mission, using ground-based telescopes operating at visible and near-infrared wavelengths (0.4–2.5 μm). Photometric lightcurve observations of Vesta were conducted on 15 nights at a phase angle range of 3.8–25.7° using duplicates of the seven narrowband Dawn Framing Camera filters (0.4–1.0 μm). Rotationally resolved visible (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-IR spectral observations (0.7–2.5 μm) were obtained on four nights over a similar phase angle range. Our Vesta photometric observations suggest the phase slope is between 0.019 and 0.029 mag/deg. The G parameter ranges from 0.22 to 0.37 consistent with previous results (e.g., Lagerkvist, C.-I., Magnusson, P., Williams, I.P., Buontempo, M.E., Argyle, R.W., Morrison, L.V. [1992]. Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Ser. 94, 43–71; Piironen, J., Magnusson, P., Lagerkvist, C.-I., Williams, I.P., Buontempo, M.E., Morrison, L.V. [1997]. Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Ser. 121, 489–497; Hasegawa, S. et al. [2009]. Lunar Planet. Sci. 40. ID 1503) within the uncertainty. We found that in the phase angle range of 0° < α ? 25° for every 10° increase in phase angle Vesta’s visible slope (0.5–0.7 μm) increases 20%, Band I and Band II depths increase 2.35% and 1.5% respectively, and the BAR value increase 0.30. Phase angle spectral measurements of the eucrite Moama in the lab show a decrease in Band I and Band II depths and BAR from the lowest phase angle 13° to 30°, followed by possible small increases up to 90°, and then a dramatic drop between 90° and 120° phase angle. Temperature-induced spectral effects shift the Band I and II centers of the pyroxene bands to longer wavelengths with increasing temperature. We have derived new correction equations using a temperature series (80–400 K) of HED meteorite spectra that will enable interpretation of telescopic and spacecraft spectral data using laboratory calibrations at room temperature (300 K).  相似文献