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Jin Ba Noel S. Keenlyside Mojib Latif Wonsun Park Hui Ding Katja Lohmann Juliette Mignot Matthew Menary Odd Helge Otterå Bert Wouters David Salas y Melia Akira Oka Alessio Bellucci Evgeny Volodin 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2333-2348
A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models. 相似文献
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基于Landsat卫星遥感数据,采用水体指数法和相关分析法,分析1988—2018年那曲市双湖县其香错湖泊水域面积变化及原因。结果表明:该湖泊近31 a内水域面积呈显著增长趋势(R2=0.88,P < 0.001),31 a内增长了33.37 km2,增长率为18.03%;从空间上分析,其香错在近31 a内湖泊面积不断向四周扩展,其中在东、西方向和北部变化尤为显著。湖泊所在区域年平均气温呈增加趋势,蒸发量显著减小,冻土深度也明显减小。在上述因素的共同作用下,引起湖泊补给水源的增加和湖泊水容量的增大,最终导致湖泊面积持续上涨。 相似文献
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Chenghao Cao Fangyuan Chen Li-Yun Fu Jing Ba Tongcheng Han 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(8):2536-2556
Generally, local stress induced by individual crack hardly disturbs their neighbours for small crack densities, which, however, could not be neglected as the crack density increases. The disturbance becomes rather complex in saturated porous rocks due to the wave-induced diffusion of fluid pressures. The problem is addressed in this study by the comparison of two solutions: the analytical solution without stress interactions and the numerical method with stress interactions. The resultant difference of effective properties can be used to estimate the effect of stress interactions quantitatively. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the spatial distribution pattern of cracks strongly affects stress interactions. For regularly distributed cracks, the resulting stress interaction (shielding or amplification) shows strong anisotropy, depending on the arrangement and density of cracks. It has an important role in the estimation of effective anisotropic parameters as well as the incident-angle-dependency of P- and SV-wave velocities. Contrarily, randomly distributed cracks with a relative small crack density generally lead to a strong cancellation of stress interactions across cracks, where both the numerical and analytical solutions show a good agreement for the estimation of effective parameters. However, for a higher crack density, the incomplete cancellation of stress interactions is expected, exhibiting an incidence-angle dependency, slightly affecting effective parameters, and differentiating the numerical and analytical solutions. 相似文献
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Tamer Y. Duman Tolga Çan Ömer Emre F. Tuba Kadirioğlu Nilay Başarır Baştürk Tuğbay Kılıç Selim Arslan Selim Özalp Recai F. Kartal Doğan Kalafat Ferdane Karakaya Tuba Eroğlu Azak Nurcan M. Özel Semih Ergintav Sinan Akkar Yıldız Altınok Senem Tekin Ayhan Cingöz A. İhsan Kurt 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3277-3316
Turkey is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Characterizing seismic source zones in this region requires evaluation and integration of geological, geophysical, seismological and geodetical data. This first seismotectonic database for Turkey presented herein was prepared, under the framework of the National Earthquake Strategy and Action Plan—2023. The geographic information system (GIS)-based database includes maps of active faults, catalogues of instrumental and historical earthquakes, moment tensor solutions and data on crustal thickness. On the basis of these data, 18 major seismotectonic zones were delineated for Turkey and the surrounding region. The compilation and storage of the seismotectonic data sets in a digital GIS will allow analyses and systematic updates as new data accrete over time. 相似文献
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Modern asteroid surveys produce an increasingly large number of observations, which are grouped into very short arcs (VSAs) each containing a few observations of the same object in one single night. To decide whether two VSAs collected in different nights correspond to the same observed object we can attempt to compute an orbit with the observations of both arcs: this is called the linkage problem. Since the number of linkages to be attempted is very large, we need efficient methods of orbit determination. Using the first integrals of Kepler’s motion we can write algebraic equations for the linkage problem, which can be put in polynomial form. In Gronchi et al. (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 123(2):105–122, 2015) these equations are reduced to a polynomial equation of degree 9: the unknown is the topocentric distance of the observed body at the mean epoch of one VSA. Here we derive the same equations in a more concise way, and show that the degree 9 is optimal in a sense that will be specified in Sect. 3.3. We also introduce a procedure to join three VSAs: from the conservation of angular momentum we obtain a polynomial equation of degree 8 in the topocentric distance at the mean epoch of the second VSA. For both identification methods, with two and three VSAs, we discuss how to discard solutions. Finally, we present some numerical tests showing that the new methods give satisfactory results and can be used also when the time separation between the VSAs is large. The low polynomial degree of the new methods makes them well suited to deal with the very large number of asteroid observations collected by the modern surveys. 相似文献
210.
粤北石土岭铀矿床同位素地球化学研究 总被引:15,自引:2,他引:13
石土岭铀矿床位于贵东岩体东南部与寒武纪浅变质岩接触带的内带,矿区内NWW向和NNE向基性岩脉十分发育。矿体主要赋存于帽峰岩体中,呈脉状产出,并受近EW向裂隙构造控制。沥青铀矿的U-Pb年龄(135Ma)与帽峰岩体的年龄(220Ma)相差明显,但与NWW向辉绿岩脉的年龄(143Ma)十分接近。矿石中黄铁矿的初始87Sr/86Sr值(0.71315~0.72579)介于成矿期间辉绿岩的值(0.70449~0.70632)与帽峰和下庄岩体演化至成矿时期(135Ma)的值(0.75058~0.99507)之间;黄铁矿的铅同位素组成呈线性分布,为基底变质岩铅与帽峰岩体铅及辉绿岩铅之间不同程度的混合。Sr、Pb同位素组成显示出成矿组分具多来源特征;成矿流体的δ18OH2O=2.0‰~8.1‰,δDH2O=-63‰~-51‰,反映出成矿流体主要由幔源流体组成;方解石的δ13C=-8.3‰,表明矿化剂∑CO2也来自地幔。因此,幔源流体在石土岭铀矿床的形成中具有十分重要的意义。 相似文献