一次强降水过程涡旋状MCS结构特征及成因初步分析   总被引：8，自引：8，他引：0  

吴涛  张家国  牛奔 《气象》2017,43(5):540-551

利用新一代天气雷达资料分析了造成2011年6月18日湖北省江汉平原强降水涡旋状中尺度对流系统(MCS)发生发展过程的结构特征,联合常规观测、地面加密观测及雷达四维变分风场反演资料初步研究了MCS可能成因。结果表明:(1)成熟阶段的强降水涡旋状MCS回波表现为气旋性弯曲的多条螺旋对流回波带、周围被大片层状云回波所包裹的结构特征,后期因冷空气侵入演变出冷暖锋式结构。回波合并和旋转式列车效应是产生强降水的主要运动特征。(2)涡旋状MCS是在有利环境场下,主要由鄂西山地一江汉平原过渡带边界层中尺度涡旋系统强烈发展组织的结果。(3)中尺度涡旋系统形成发展与地面暖倒槽发展、西南低涡前侧降水和特殊地形作用有密切关系,来自不同方向气流形成的强烈辐合是其前期形成发展的主要机制,后期发展可能与潜热释放有关,涡旋环流向上发展到700 hPa。  相似文献   

The usability of climate information in sub-national planning in India,Kenya and Uganda: the role of social learning and intermediary organisations     

Susannah Fisher  David Dodman  Marissa Van Epp  Ben Garside 《Climatic change》2018,149(2):219-231

Correctly estimating the effect of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on biomass production is paramount for accurately projecting agricultural productivity, global carbon balances and climate changes. Plant physiology suggests that eCO₂ should result in a strongly positive CO₂ fertilisation effect (CFE) via positive effects on photosynthesis and water use efficiency. However, the CFE in CO₂ experiments is often constrained because of other factors of which rainfall pattern is particularly important. Here, we apply a generally applicable, empirically derived relationship between the CFE and an index of seasonal rainfall balance (SRB), to identify how historical and projected future rainfall patterns modify the CFE using 25 native grassland sites in south-eastern (SE) Australia as a test case. We found that historical and projected rainfall produced SRBs that varied widely from year-to-year resulting in a CFE that was only positive in about 40% of years, with no or even negative biomass responses in the remainder of years; a finding that is in marked contrast to other studies that have not taken account of relationships between rainfall seasonality and plant responses to CO₂. The dependence of the CFE on SRB also means that using the CFE from a specific eCO₂ experiment can be misleading as the result will be heavily influenced by the SRB during the period of experimentation but this problem can be avoided by using a robust general relationship of the kind used in this study. Generalisations of grassland biomass responses to the rising CO₂ concentration are contextual in terms of the variability in precipitation seasonality; as such, this provides a new lens by which to view aboveground responses to the rising CO₂ concentration and fosters a novel approach for cross-site comparisons among experiments.  相似文献   

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment     

Nigel W. Arnell  Jason A. Lowe  Ben Lloyd-Hughes  Timothy J. Osborn 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):61-76

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.  相似文献   

Empirical calibration of climate policy using corporate solvency: a case study of the UK’s carbon price support     

Ben Caldecott  Gerard Dericks 《Climate Policy》2018,18(6):766-780

Emission reductions improve the chances that dangerous anthropogenic climate change will be averted, but could also cause some firms financial distress. Corporate failures, especially if they are unnecessary, add to the social cost of abatement. Social value can be permanently destroyed by the dissolution of organizational capital, deadweight losses paid to liquidators, and unemployment. This article proposes using measures of corporate solvency as an objective tool for policy makers to calibrate the optimal stringency of climate change policies, so that they can deliver the least loss of corporate solvency for a given level of emission reductions. They could also be used to determine the generosity of any compensation to address losses to corporate solvency. We demonstrate this approach using a case study of the UK’s Carbon Price Support (a carbon tax).

Key policy insights

• Solvency metrics could be used to empirically calibrate the optimal stringency of climate policies.

• An idealized solvency trajectory for firms affected by climate change policy would cause corporate solvency to initially decline – approaching but not exceeding ‘distressed’ levels – and then gradually improve to a new ‘steady state’ once the low-carbon transition had been achieved.

• In terms of the UK’s Carbon Price Support, corporate solvency of energy-intensive industries was found to be stable subsequent to its introduction. Therefore, the available evidence does not support its later weakening.

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中国城市群多中心网络的拓扑结构   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

赵渺希  黎智枫  钟烨  DERUDDER Ben 《地理科学进展》2016,35(3):376-388

在既有理论基础上扩展了城市群多中心网络的度量工具,考察中国12个城市群总部—分支机构的企业关联网络,比较梳理了地级城市空间联系的拓扑结构。实证研究发现：①包括长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大典型城市群在内,中国城市群内部网络系统的拓扑结构依然发育不完善,在联系数据方面均呈现出一定的稀疏矩阵特征,空间组合关系均为树状结构。②总部区位(出度)的层级性差异均高于分支机构区位(入度)的层级性差异,显示出城市群内部空间“流”的不对称性。③针对12个城市群内部网络的拓扑结构聚类分析表明：长三角、珠三角、京津冀、山东半岛、海峡西岸地区的城市群内部网络联系较为紧密,呈现出一定程度的一体化网络特征;其中三大典型城市群存在明显的企业总部集聚核心,其余城市群内部的网络联系松散,跨城企业联系比重较低,在拓扑结构上大多呈现出以省会或副省级城市为指向的向心式联系。  相似文献   

HaleBopp彗星的爆发活动     

杨本有  张春生  范一新  蔡鸿芳  孙寿繰  张艳  孙立男 《天文学报》1999,(3)

９９６ 年９ 月至１１ 月间,对ＨａｌｅＢｏｐｐ 彗星进行了照相和光电观测．给出观测结果,包括几次爆发和可能的爆发活动  相似文献   

Comparison of garnet-biotite, calcite-graphite, and calcite-dolomite thermometry in the Grenville Orogen; Ontario, Canada     

Mark A. Rathmell  Margaret M. Streepey  Eric J. Essene  Ben A. van der Pluijm 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1999,134(2-3):217-231

The Elzevir Terrane of the Grenville Orogen in southern Ontario contains metapelites and abundant graphitic marbles that were regionally metamorphosed from the upper greenschist to upper amphibolite facies. Comparative thermometry was undertaken with widely used calibrations for the systems garnet-biotite, calcite-dolomite, and calcite-graphite. Temperatures that are obtained from matrix biotites paired with prograde garnet near-rim analyses are usually consistent with those determined using calcite-graphite thermometry. However, calcite-graphite thermometry occasionally yields low temperatures due to lack of equilibration of anomalously light graphite. Application of calcite-graphite and garnet-biotite systems may yield temperatures up to 70 °C higher than calcite-dolomite in amphibolite facies rocks. Calcite-dolomite temperatures most closely approach those from calcite-graphite and garnet-biotite when the samples contain a single generation of dolomite and calcite grains contain no visible dolomite exsolution lamellae. However, some of these samples yield temperatures considerably lower than temperatures calculated from calcite-graphite and garnet-biotite thermometry, indicating that the calcite-dolomite thermometer may have been partially reset during retrogression. Estimated peak metamorphic temperatures of regional metamorphism between Madoc (upper greenschist facies) and Bancroft (upper amphibolite facies) range from 500 to 650 °C. These results place the chlorite-staurolite isograd at 540 °C, the kyanite-sillimanite isograd at 590 °C, and the sillimanite-K-feldspar isograd at 650 °C. Although each thermometer may have an absolute uncertainty of as much as ±50 °C, the 50 to 60 °C temperature differences between the isograds are probably accurate to 10 to 20 °C. An incomplete picture of the thermal gradients can result from the application of only one thermometer in a given area. Simultaneous application of several systems allows one to recognize and overcome the inherent limitations of each thermometer. Received: 26 March 1997 / Accepted: 15 April 1998  相似文献   

Introduction: The complex tapestry of everyday life     

Kajsa Ellegård  Ben de Pater 《GeoJournal》1999,48(3):149-153

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Geodynamic Evolution of Northeastern Tunisia During the Maastrichtian–Paleocene Time: Insights from Integrated Seismic Stratigraphic Analysis     

Oussama Abidi  Mohamed Hédi Inoubli  Kawthar Sebei  Adnen Amiri  Haifa Boussiga  Imen Hamdi Nasr  Abdelhamid Ben Salem  Mahmoud Elabed 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(3):617-649

The Maastrichtian–Paleocene El Haria formation was studied and defined in Tunisia on the basis of outcrops and borehole data; few studies were interested in its three-dimensional extent. In this paper, the El Haria formation is reviewed in the context of a tectono-stratigraphic interval using an integrated seismic stratigraphic analysis based on borehole lithology logs, electrical well logging, well shots, vertical seismic profiles and post-stack surface data. Seismic analysis benefits from appropriate calibration with borehole data, conventional interpretation, velocity mapping, seismic attributes and post-stack model-based inversion. The applied methodology proved to be powerful for charactering the marly Maastrichtian–Paleocene interval of the El Haria formation. Migrated seismic sections together with borehole measurements are used to detail the three-dimensional changes in thickness, facies and depositional environment in the Cap Bon and Gulf of Hammamet regions during the Maastrichtian–Paleocene time. Furthermore, dating based on their microfossil content divulges local and multiple internal hiatuses within the El Haria formation which are related to the geodynamic evolution of the depositional floor since the Campanian stage. Interpreted seismic sections display concordance, unconformities, pinchouts, sedimentary gaps, incised valleys and syn-sedimentary normal faulting. Based on the seismic reflection geometry and terminations, seven sequences are delineated. These sequences are related to base-level changes as the combination of depositional floor paleo-topography, tectonic forces, subsidence and the developed accommodation space. These factors controlled the occurrence of the various parts of the Maastrichtian–Paleocene interval. Detailed examinations of these deposits together with the analysis of the structural deformation at different time periods allowed us to obtain a better understanding of the sediment architecture in depth and the delineation of the geodynamic evolution of the region.  相似文献   

SlugIn 1.0: A Free Tool for Automated Slug Test Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Sergio Martos‐Rosillo  Carolina Guardiola‐Albert  Alberto Padilla Benítez  Joaquín Delgado Pastor  Antonio Azcón González  Juan José Durán Valsero 《Ground water》2018,56(3):362-365

The correct characterization of aquifer parameters is essential for water‐supply and water‐quality investigations. Slug tests are widely used for these purposes. While free software is available to interpret slug tests, some codes are not user‐friendly, or do not include a wide range of methods to interpret the results, or do not include automatic, inverse solutions to the test data. The private sector has also generated several good programs to interpret slug test data, but they are not free of charge. The computer program SlugIn 1.0 is available online for free download, and is demonstrated to aid in the analysis of slug tests to estimate hydraulic parameters. The program provides an easy‐to‐use Graphical User Interface. SlugIn 1.0 incorporates automated parameter estimation and facilitates the visualization of several interpretations of the same test. It incorporates solutions for confined and unconfined aquifers, partially penetrating wells, skin effects, shape factor, anisotropy, high hydraulic conductivity formations and the Mace test for large‐diameter wells. It is available in English and Spanish and can be downloaded from the web site of the Geological Survey of Spain. Two field examples are presented to illustrate how the software operates.  相似文献