EU 20-20-20 energy policy as a model for global climate mitigation     

Katherine Calvin  Bjorn Bakken  Marshall Wise  Sonny Kim  Patrick Luckow 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):581-598

The EU has established an aggressive portfolio with explicit near-term targets for 2020 – to reduce GHG emissions by 20%, rising to 30% if the conditions are right, to increase the share of renewable energy to 20%, and to make a 20% improvement in energy efficiency – intended to be the first step in a long-term strategy to limit climate forcing. The effectiveness and cost of extending these measures in time are considered along with the ambition and propagation to the rest of the world. Numerical results are reported and analysed for the contribution of the portfolio's various elements through a set of sensitivity experiments. It is found that the hypothetical programme leads to very substantial reductions in GHG emissions, dramatic increases in use of electricity, and substantial changes in land-use including reduced deforestation, but at the expense of higher food prices. The GHG emissions reductions are driven primarily by the direct limits. Although the carbon price is lower under the hypothetical protocol than it would be under the emissions cap alone, the economic cost of the portfolio is higher, between 13% and 22%.  相似文献   

Solubility behavior of alkaline earth and alkali aluminosilicate components in aqueous fluids in the Earth’s upper mantle     

Bjorn O. Mysen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(13):2421-2438

  相似文献   

Reflection and transmission responses of layered transversely isotropic viscoelastic media     

Alexey Stovas  Bjorn Ursin 《Geophysical Prospecting》2003,51(5):447-477

We consider a layered heterogeneous viscoelastic transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis (a viscoelastic TIV medium) and parameters that depend on depth only. This takes into account intrinsic attenuation, anisotropy and thin layering. The seismic wavefield is decomposed into up- and downgoing waves scaled by the vertical energy flux. This scaling gives important symmetry relationships for both reflection and transmission (R/T) responses. For a stack of homogeneous layers, the exact reflection response can be computed in a numerically stable way by a simple layer-recursive algorithm. We derive exact plane-wave R/T coefficients and several linear and quadratic approximations between two viscoelastic TIV media, as functions of the real-valued horizontal slowness. The approximations are valid for pre- and post-critical values of horizontal slowness provided that the proper complex square roots are used when computing the vertical slowness. Numerical examples demonstrate that the quadratic approximations can be used for large differences in medium parameters, while the linear approximations can be used for small differences. For weak anisotropy it is sufficient to use an isotropic background medium, while for strong anisotropy it is necessary to use a weak TIV or TIV background medium. We also extend the O'Doherty–Anstey formula to the P- and SV-wave transmission responses of a stack of viscoelastic TIV layers, taking into account intrinsic attenuation, anisotropy and thin layering.  相似文献   

Structure vs. composition: A solid-state H and Si NMR study of quenched glasses along the Na₂O-SiO₂-H₂O join     

George D. Cody  Bjorn O. Mysen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(9):2373-2384

A suite of six hydrous (7 wt.% H₂O) sodium silicate glasses spanning sodium octasilicate to sodium disilicate in composition were analyzed using ²⁹Si single pulse (SP) magic angle spinning (MAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, ¹H-²⁹Si cross polarization (CP) MAS NMR, and fast MAS ¹H-NMR. From the ²⁹Si SPMAS data it is observed that at low sodium compositions dissolved water significantly depolymerizes the silicate network. At higher sodium contents, however, dissolved H₂O does not affect a significant increase in depolymerization over that predicted based on the Na/Si ratio alone. The fast MAS ¹H-NMR data reveal considerable complexity in proton environments in each of the glasses studied. The fast MAS ¹H-NMR spectra of the highest sodium concentration glasses do not exhibit evidence of signficantly greater fractions of dissolved water as molecular H₂O than the lower sodium concentration glasses requiring that the decrease in polymerization at high sodium contents involves a change in sodium solution mechanism. Variable contact time ¹H-²⁹Si cross polarization (CP) MAS NMR data reveal an increase in the rotating frame spin lattice relaxation rate constant (T_1ρ*) for various Qⁿ species with increasing sodium content that correlates with a reduction in the average ¹H-²⁹Si coupling strength. At the highest sodium concentration, however, T_1ρ* drops significantly, consistent with a change in the Na₂O solution mechanism.  相似文献   

The structural behavior of ferric and ferrous iron in aluminosilicate glass near meta-aluminosilicate joins     

Bjorn O. Mysen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2006,70(9):2337-2353

Iron-57 resonant absorption Mössbauer spectroscopy was used to describe the redox relations and structural roles of Fe³⁺ and Fe²⁺ in meta-aluminosilicate glasses. Melts were formed at 1500 °C in equilibrium with air and quenched to glass in liquid H₂O with quenching rates exceeding 200 °C/s. The aluminosilicate compositions were NaAlSi₂O₆, Ca_0.5AlSi₂O₆, and Mg_0.5AlSi₂O₆. Iron oxide was added in the form of Fe₂O₃, NaFeO₂, CaFe₂O₄, and MgFe₂O₄ with total iron oxide content in the range ∼0.9 to ∼5.6 mol% as Fe₂O₃. The Mössbauer spectra, which were deconvoluted by assuming Gaussian distributions of the hyperfine field, are consistent with one absorption doublet of Fe²⁺ and one of Fe³⁺. From the area ratios of the Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺ absorption doublets, with corrections for differences in recoil-fractions of Fe³⁺ and Fe²⁺, the Fe³⁺/ΣFe is positively correlated with increasing total iron content and with decreasing ionization potential of the alkali and alkaline earth cation. There is a distribution of hyperfine parameters from the Mössbauer spectra of these glasses. The maximum in the isomer shift distribution function of Fe³⁺, δ_Fe³⁺, ranges from about 0.25 to 0.49 mm/s (at 298 K relative to Fe metal) with the quadrupole splitting maximum, Δ_Fe³⁺, ranging from ∼1.2 to ∼1.6 mm/s. Both δ_Fe³⁺ and δ_Fe²⁺ are negatively correlated with total iron oxide content and Fe³⁺/ΣFe. The dominant oxygen coordination number Fe³⁺ changes from 4 to 6 with decreasing Fe³⁺/ΣFe. The distortion of the Fe³⁺-O polyhedra of the quenched melts (glasses) decreases as the Fe³⁺/ΣFe increases. These polyhedra do, however, coexist with lesser proportions of polyhedra with different oxygen coordination numbers. The δ_Fe²⁺ and Δ_Fe²⁺ distribution maxima at 298 K range from ∼0.95 to 1.15 mm/s and 1.9 to 2.0 mm/s, respectively, and decrease with increasing Fe³⁺/ΣFe. We suggest that these hyperfine parameter values for the most part are more consistent with Fe²⁺ in a range of coordination states from 4- to 6-fold. The lower δ_Fe²⁺-values for the most oxidized melts are consistent with a larger proportion of Fe²⁺ in 4-fold coordination compared with more reduced glasses and melts.  相似文献   

Changes in otolith microstructure at metamorphosis of plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L.     

Modin  Johan; Fagerholm  Bjorn; Gunnarsson  Bjorn; Pihl  Leif 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1996,53(4):745-748

  相似文献   

青藏高原各拉丹冬冰芯记录的季节气温变化     

张拥军  康世昌  秦大河  任贾文  张玉兰  Bjorn GRIGHOLM  Paul MAYEWSKI 《地理学报(英文版)》2007,17(4):431-441

A 70-year history of precipitation δ18O record has been retrieved using an ice core drilled from a plat portion of the firn area in the Guoqu Glacier (33o34′37.8″ N, 91o10′35.3″ E, 5720 m a.s.l.) on Mt. Geladaindong (the source region of Yangtze River) during October and November, 2005. Based on the seasonality of δ18O records and the significant positive relationships between monsoon/non-monsoon δ18O values and summer/spring air temperature from the nearby meteorological stations, the history of summer and spring air temperature have been reconstructed for the last 70 years. The results show that both summer and spring air temperature variations present similar trends during the last 70 years. Regression analysis indicates that the slope of the temperature-δ18O relationship is 1.3℃/‰ for non-monsoon δ18O values and spring air temperature, and 0.4℃/‰ for monsoon δ18O values and summer air temperature. Variation of air temperature recorded in the ice core is consistent with that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), however, the warming trend in the Geladaindong region is more intense than that in the NH, reflecting a higher sensitivity to global warming in the high elevation regions. In addition, warming trend is greater in spring than in summer.  相似文献   

Estimation of an optimal mixed-phase inverse filter     

Bjorn Ursin  Milton J. Porsani 《Geophysical Prospecting》2000,48(4):663-676

Inverse filtering is applied to seismic data to remove the effect of the wavelet and to obtain an estimate of the reflectivity series. In many cases the wavelet is not known, and only an estimate of its autocorrelation function (ACF) can be computed. Solving the Yule-Walker equations gives the inverse filter which corresponds to a minimum-delay wavelet. When the wavelet is mixed delay, this inverse filter produces a poor result.
By solving the extended Yule-Walker equations with the ACF of lag α on the main diagonal of the filter equations, it is possible to decompose the inverse filter into a finite-length filter convolved with an infinite-length filter. In a previous paper we proposed a mixed-delay inverse filter where the finite-length filter is maximum delay and the infinite-length filter is minimum delay.
Here, we refine this technique by analysing the roots of the Z -transform polynomial of the finite-length filter. By varying the number of roots which are placed inside the unit circle of the mixed-delay inverse filter, at most 2 ^α different filters are obtained. Applying each filter to a small data set (say a CMP gather), we choose the optimal filter to be the one for which the output has the largest L ^p -norm, with p =5. This is done for increasing values of α to obtain a final optimal filter. From this optimal filter it is easy to construct the inverse wavelet which may be used as an estimate of the seismic wavelet.
The new procedure has been applied to a synthetic wavelet and to an airgun wavelet to test its performance, and also to verify that the reconstructed wavelet is close to the original wavelet. The algorithm has also been applied to prestack marine seismic data, resulting in an improved stacked section compared with the one obtained by using a minimum-delay filter.  相似文献   

Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review     

Jessica Vial  Sandrine Bony  Bjorn Stevens  Raphaela Vogel 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(6):1331-1353

Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and high-resolution modeling on large domains are discussed.  相似文献   

Climate feedback efficiency and synergy     

Thorsten Mauritsen  Rune G. Graversen  Daniel Klocke  Peter L. Langen  Bjorn Stevens  Lorenzo Tomassini 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2539-2554

Earth’s climate sensitivity to radiative forcing induced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ is determined by feedback mechanisms, including changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds and surface albedo, that act to either amplify or dampen the response. The climate system is frequently interpreted in terms of a simple energy balance model, in which it is assumed that individual feedback mechanisms are additive and act independently. Here we test these assumptions by systematically controlling, or locking, the radiative feedbacks in a state-of-the-art climate model. The method is shown to yield a near-perfect decomposition of change into partial temperature contributions pertaining to forcing and each of the feedbacks. In the studied model water vapor feedback stands for about half the temperature change, CO₂-forcing about one third, while cloud and surface albedo feedback contributions are relatively small. We find a close correspondence between forcing, feedback and partial surface temperature response for the water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks, while the cloud feedback is inefficient in inducing surface temperature change. Analysis suggests that cloud-induced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with rising convective cloud anvils in a warming climate enhances the negative lapse-rate feedback, thereby offsetting some of the warming that would otherwise be attributable to this positive cloud feedback. By subsequently combining feedback mechanisms we find a positive synergy acting between the water vapor feedback and the cloud feedback; that is, the combined cloud and water vapor feedback is greater than the sum of its parts. Negative synergies surround the surface albedo feedback, as associated cloud and water vapor changes dampen the anticipated climate change induced by retreating snow and ice. Our results highlight the importance of treating the coupling between clouds, water vapor and temperature in a deepening troposphere.  相似文献