山东省农田干旱预警模型   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈艳春  何祥登  黄九莲 《山东气象》2005,25(2):24-25

提出农田干旱强度的概念，反映受旱强度、受旱面积、干旱持续时间的综合作用，对于不同地域范围、不同时段的旱情具有可比性。应用1975-1994年逐旬全省受旱面积资料，计算山东省平均春旱强度、夏秋旱强度、年干旱强度，并与前期或同期降水量进行回归分析，建立干旱预警模型，可根据各地区降水量预报值预测当地后期的干旱强度。  相似文献   

2003年12月1日新疆昭苏6.1级地震烈度与房屋震害     

沈军唐丽华  寇大兵胡伟华宋德新  赵保宗张进 陈建波 《内陆地震》2005,19(3):207-214

介绍了2003年12月1日新疆昭苏6.1级地震的现场考察结果.该地震宏观震中位于受灾最重的兵团农四师76团11连西侧,极震区烈度为Ⅷ度;圈定出Ⅷ度、Ⅶ度和Ⅵ度3条等震线.此次考察还着重考察了震区各类典型建筑的受损特征,对受损原因作了初步分析,所取得的经验可供类似地区抗震设防和民房改造工作参考.  相似文献   

刍议国际地震保险投保率   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈宏 《山西地震》2005,(1):25-26

地震灾难带来的损失日益增加的问题，让保险业至今难以应对。地震发生频率低、损失巨大而保险公司的承保能力又十分有限，加之，社会公众的投保意识薄弱，造成地震保险投保率过低。从地震灾情入手，介绍了国际地震保险开展情况，剖析了地震保险投保率过低的原因，并针对问题提出了解决措施。  相似文献   

2000年以来中国大陆5级以上地震近源区的相继发震特征与预测          下载免费PDF全文

任雪梅  马禾青  陈春梅 《地震工程学报》2005,27(3):251-254

通过对中国大陆除新疆和东北深震区以外的主要地区2000年以来5级以上地震活动特征的研究发现,5级以上地震近源区的相继发震是某些区域地震活动的重要特征。依据这一特征可以对今后研究区内5级以上地震的后续地震作中期预测。  相似文献   

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China (December 2004～January 2005)     

陈培善 《地震学报(英文版)》2005,18(3)

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ″Preliminary Seismological Report of Chi-nese Seismic Stations″ (Its abbreviation is ″Monthly Report″). The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The ″Monthly Report″ is monthly compiled by the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The origin times of earthquakes in the catalog adopt coordinated universal time (UTC) in accordance with…  相似文献   

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China (June, 2005～July, 2005)     

陈培善 《地震学报(英文版)》2005,18(6)

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ″Preliminary Seismological Report of Chi-nese Seismic Stations″ (Its abbreviation is ″Monthly Report″). The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The ″Monthly Report″ is monthly compiled by the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The origin times of earthquakes in the catalog adopt coordinated universal time (UTC) in accordance with…  相似文献   

1954年山丹7 1/4级地震概述   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

董治平  赵仪全  慕文斋  代炜  陈瑶 《地震工程学报》2005,27(Z1)

1954年山丹7 1/4级地震的极震区烈度达X度,造成50人死亡,329人受伤,受灾面积4800 km2,山丹县城破坏最重.本文回顾、总结了山丹地震五十年的研究积累,重点论述了该地震的基本参数、震源机制、地震序列、地震烈度、地震破裂带、历史地震、震害及其损失等.  相似文献   

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality     

XU Jianming  XU Xiangde  LIU Yu  DING Guoan  CHEN Huailiang  HU Jiangkai  ZHANG Jianchun  WU Hao  LI Weiliang  HE Jinhai  YANG Yuanqin  WANG Jiahe 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z2)

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".  相似文献   

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study     

CHEN Ming  FENG Liu  Jacques Yvon 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z2)

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.  相似文献   

南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

曲维政  陈璐  黄菲  张微  朱小洁  邓声贵  杜凌 《地球科学进展》2005,20(7):794-803

通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。  相似文献