Simulation of glacial-interglacial cycles by simple relaxation models: consistency with observational results   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Antonio García-Olivares  Carmen Herrero 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1307-1331

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227:263–271, 2004) was modified to obtain a closer fit to δ¹⁸O and CO₂ time series for the last 800 kyr. The model performance can be improved if its CO₂ sensitivity to I₆₅ insolation is eliminated and if different response times are assumed for ablation/accumulation of ice. Correlations between simulated and experimental time series for CO₂ and ice volume V increase from 0.59 and 0.63 to 0.79 and 0.88, respectively. According to these models, terminations are produced by I₆₅ amplification through CO₂-T and T-CO₂ feedbacks, in synergy with an extra CO₂ contribution from the deep ocean. This contribution is strongly dependent on ice-sheet extent and ice volume (or alternatively, CO₂ concentration, which is a good proxy of Antarctic temperature) but is insensitive to Southern Ocean (SO) insolation on 21 February (I₆₀). Change of deep SO state may be the “order parameter” for nonlinear deglacial changes. According to these models, 100 kyr periodicity of glacial cycles arises from the characteristic time of Antarctic ice sheet advance to the continental slope.  相似文献   

Rainfall spatial organization and areal reduction factors in the metropolitan area of Barcelona (Spain)     

Raul Rodríguez  Xavier Navarro  M. Carmen Casas  Angel Redaño 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):1-8

The rainfall spatial organization in the metropolitan area of Barcelona (Spain) has been studied from records of an urban rain gauge network in the period 1994–2009. Using statistical and regional analysis techniques, correlation between data recorded by the different rain gauges has been calculated, and the effective number of independent stations (n _eq) equivalent to the used network has been determined. It has been found out that for durations longer than 20 min, the areal rainfall return period observed for a storm registered by the network approximately decreases by a factor of 1/n _eq in relation to the current point rainfall intensity–duration–frequency relationships for the metropolitan area of Barcelona. Using objective analysis techniques, continuous precipitation fields have been generated on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 300?×?300 m for the storms registered by the rain gauges from 1994 to 2009, for durations from 10 min to 24 h. The precipitation fields obtained have been useful to estimate the characteristic areal reduction factors in the metropolitan area of Barcelona. A direct relationship has been found between the areal reduction factor for all the area corresponding to the urban rainfall network of Barcelona and the effective number of n _eq for every duration considered.  相似文献   

Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona     

Cort&#;s  Maria  Llasat  Maria Carmen  Gilabert  Joan  Llasat-Botija  Montserrat  Turco  Marco  Marcos  Ra&#;l  Mart&#;n Vide  Juan Pedro  Falc&#;n  Llu&#;s 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(1):39-57

Dam failure constitutes a grave threat to human life. However, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the loss of life (L) caused by dam break in China. From the perspective of protecting human life, a new calculation method for L occurred in dam break floods is put forward. Fourteen dam failure cases in China are selected as the basic data by three-dimensional stratified sampling, balancing spatial, vertical elevation and temporal representations, as well as considering various conditions of the dam collapse. The method includes three progressive steps: Firstly, some impact factors of loss of life (IFL) are selected by literature survey, i.e., severity of dam break flood (S _F), population at risk (P _R), understanding of dam break (U _B), warning time (T _W) and evacuation condition (E _C). And the other IFL of weather during dam break (W _B), dam break mode (M _B), water storage (S _W), building vulnerability (V _B), dam break time (T _B) and average distance from affected area to dam (D _D) are also taken into account to get a more comprehensive consideration. According to disaster system and disaster risk, these eleven IFL are divided into four categories. Through the improved entropy method, eight key IFL are further selected out of the eleven. Secondly, four L modules are built based on four categories, which are L-causing factor module (M ₁), L-prone environment module (M ₂), affected body module (M ₃) and rescue condition module (M ₄). Eventually, by using two methods of multivariate nonlinear regression and leave-one-out cross-validation in combination with coupled four modules, the calculation method for L is established. Compared with the results of Graham method and D&M method, the result of the proposed one is much closer to the actual value and performs better in fitting effect and regional applicability. In the application, L calculation and consequence assessment are carried out in the example of Hengjiang reservoir that has already broken down. At the same time, L calculation and risk prediction are used in the analysis of Yunshan reservoir, which is under planning. The proposed method can not only be applied to estimate L and its rate (f _L ) under various types of dam break conditions in China, but also provide a reliable consequence assessment and prediction approach to reduce the risk of L.  相似文献   

Air–Water CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Fluxes and Net Ecosystem Production Changes in a Baja California Coastal Lagoon During the Anomalous North Pacific Warm Condition     

Ma Carmen Ávila-López  J. Martín Hernández-Ayón  Víctor F. Camacho-Ibar  Armando Félix Bermúdez  Adan Mejía-Trejo  Isaí Pacheco-Ruiz  Jose M. Sandoval-Gil 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):792-806

The present study examines the temporal variability of air–water CO₂ fluxes (FCO₂) and seawater carbonate chemistry in a Baja California coastal lagoon during an exceptionally warm anomaly that was developed in Northeast Pacific coasts during 2014. This oceanographic condition led to a summer-like season (weak upwelling condition) during the study period, which reached a maximum surface temperature anomaly of 2 °C in September 2014. San Quintín Bay acts as a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere in 2014 (3.3 ± 4.8 mmol C m^?2 day^?1) with the higher positive fluxes mainly observed in summer months (9.0 ± 5.3 mmol C m^?2 day^?1). Net ecosystem production (NEP) switched seasonally between net heterotrophy and net autotrophy during the study period, with an annual average of 2.2 ± 7.1 mmol C m^?2 day^?1, which indicates that San Quintín Bay was a net autotrophic system during the atypical warm oceanographic condition in 2014. This pattern of seasonal variations in the carbon balance at San Quintín Bay appears to be linked to the life cycle of benthic communities, which play an important role in the whole-ecosystem metabolism. Under the limited input from external sources coupled with an increase in seawater temperatures, the recycled benthic carbon and nutrient fluxes play a major role to sustain water-column processes within the bay. Since the upwelling condition may influence the magnitude of the air–water CO₂ fluxes, our results clearly indicated that San Quintín Bay is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere regardless of the adjacent oceanic conditions. Our study sheds light on the carbon dynamics and its metabolic implications in a shallow coastal ecosystem under a regional warm anomaly and contributes potentially relevant information in view of the likely future scenario of global climate change.  相似文献