Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Deliang CHEN  Christine ACHBERGER  Jouni R¨AIS¨ANEN  Cecilia HELLSTR¨OM 《大气科学进展》2006,23(1):54-60

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.  相似文献   

Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico     

Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas  Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez  José Luís Pérez-Damian  Jorge López-Blanco  Marcos Gaytan-Dimas  Jesús David Gómez-Díaz 《Climatic change》2018,147(3-4):457-473

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.  相似文献   

Remote Sensing of Three-dimensional Winds with Elastic Lidar: Explanation of Maximum Cross-correlation Method     

William T. Buttler  Cecilia Soriano  Jose M. Baldasano  George H. Nickel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2001,101(3):305-327

Maximum cross-correlation provides a method toremotely de-ter-mine high-lyre-solved three-dimensional fields of horizontalwinds with e-las-tic li-darthrough-out large volumes of the planetaryboundary layer (PBL). This paperdetails the technique and shows comparisonsbetween elastic lidar winds, remotelysensed laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) windprofiles, and radiosonde winds.Radiosonde wind data were acquired at Barcelona,Spain, during the BarcelonaAir-Quality Initiative (1992), and the LDVwind data were acquired at SunlandPark, New Mexico during the 1994 Border AreaAir-Quality Study. Comparisonsshow good agreement between the differentinstruments, and demonstrate the methoduseful for air pollution management at thelocal/regional scale. Elastic lidar windscould thus offer insight into aerosol andpollution transport within the PBL. Lidarwind fields might also be used to nudge orimprove initialization and evaluation ofatmospheric meteorological models.  相似文献   

Circulatory Patterns of Air Pollutants within the Barcelona Air Basin in a Summertime situation: Lidar and Numerical Approaches     

Cecilia Soriano  José M. Baldasano  William T. Buttler  Kurt R. Moore 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2001,98(1):33-55

This work examines circulatory patterns of airpollutants in the area of Barcelona (Spain), a regionwith strong coastal and orographic influences. Thiswas achieved through exploitation ofelastic-backscatter lidar data and by numericalsimulation of the atmosphere with a meteorologicalmesoscale model (MEMO). Lidar data were acquired inJuly 1992 during a collaborative campaign between LosAlamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the PolytechnicUniversity of Catalonia (UPC). The lidar providedinformation about the distribution of aerosols and theprevailing winds, determined by application of amaximum cross-correlation algorithm toelastic-backscatter lidar data. Lidar winds are usedto evaluate high altitude winds simulated by themodel. This study showed that circulatory patterns inBarcelona are correlated with daytime convectivevertical mixing, sea-breeze circulations, and verticalforcing caused by mountain thermal and mechanicaleffects.  相似文献   

Back Analysis of the 2014 San Leo Landslide Using Combined Terrestrial Laser Scanning and 3D Distinct Element Modelling     

Margherita Cecilia Spreafico  Mirko Francioni  Federico Cervi  Doug Stead  Gabriele Bitelli  Monica Ghirotti  Valentina Alena Girelli  Claudio Corrado Lucente  Maria Alessandra Tini  Lisa Borgatti 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(6):2235-2251

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Uptake of petroleum hydrocarbons by the Blue Mussel (Mytilus edulis L.) after Experimental Oiling and High Pressure, Hot Water Shore cleaning     

Bjrn Ganning  Dag Broman  Cecilia Lindblad 《Marine environmental research》1983,10(4):245-254

High pressure, hot water shore cleaning after an oil spill will release high concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons to ambient marine ecosystems. The immediate increase of hydrocarbons observed in blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, went from background concentrations of 40 μg/g to 657 μg/g and 533 μg/g at a distance of 3 and 8m respectively from the shore. After two weeks the accumulated oil had decreased by 20–45 %. In comparison natural surf and ice cleaning of shores will only produce a small increase in hydrocarbon concentrations. We recommend that high pressure, hot water cleaning is not used in areas where no special bird or wild life protection is needed.  相似文献   

The border as an engine for mobility and spatial integration: A study of commuting in a Swedish–Norwegian context     

Cecilia Möller  Eva Alfredsson-Olsson  Birgitta Ericsson  Kjell Overvåg 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2018,72(4):217-233

The purpose of the study was to analyse how cross-border commuting differed from intranational commuting in Sweden, and how cross-border mobilities affected spatial integration. The authors analysed patterns and spatial flows of cross-border commuting by comparing them with characteristics of intranational commuting. In the article, they explore the assumption that the border constitutes an ‘engine’ for work-related mobility, which affects processes of spatial integration in cross-border areas. The empirical material comprised data from surveys of commuting from the Swedish county of Värmland to Norway and commuting within Värmland. The findings showed that cross-border commuting shared common features with intranational commuting, including how the frequency of commuting was dependent on distance. The motives for commuting differed, and the reasons for working in Norway were economic rather than professional. In terms of spatial integration, cross-border commuting was mainly one-directional, from Sweden to Norway, while leisure mobility and migration tended to be in the opposite direction. The authors conclude that the border region is characterised by integration through specialisation, which involves a permanent state of ‘transient’ mobility. Thus, a win-win situation can be distinguished, in which the border serves as a resource and an ‘engine’ for cross-border integration, mobility and economic activities.  相似文献   

Contrasting surface active faults and deep seismogenic sources unveiled by the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake sequence (Italy)     

Sabina Bigi  Piero Casero  Claudio Chiarabba  Daniela Di Bucci 《地学学报》2013,25(1):21-29

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Reply to comment on ‘Insights from the Mw 6.3 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (Central Apennines) – unveiling new seismogenic sources through their surface signatures: the adjacent San Pio Fault’     

Daniela Di Bucci  Paola Vannoli  Pierfrancesco Burrato  Umberto Fracassi  Gianluca Valensise 《地学学报》2011,23(6):421-423

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Remote sensing and ground‐based measurements of evapotranspiration in an extreme cold Patagonian desert          下载免费PDF全文

P. M. Cristiano  D. A. Pereyra  S. J. Bucci  N. Madanes  F. G. Scholz  G. Goldstein 《水文研究》2016,30(24):4449-4461

Accurate estimates of seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) at different temporal and spatial scales are essential for understanding the biological and environmental determinants of ecosystem water balance in arid regions and the patterns of water utilization by the vegetation. For this purpose, remote sensing ET estimates of a Patagonian desert in Southern Argentina were verified with field measurements of soil evaporation and plant transpiration using an open top chamber. Root distribution and seasonal variation in soil volumetric water content were also analysed. There was a high correlation between remote sensing and field measurements of ecosystem water fluxes. A substantial amount of the annual ET occurred in spring and early summer (73.4 mm) using winter rain stored in the soil profile and resulting in water content depletion of the upper soil layers. A smaller amount of annual ET was derived from few rainfall events occurring during the mid or late summer (41.4 mm). According to remote sensing, the 92.9% of the mean annual precipitation returns to the atmosphere by transpiration or evaporation from the bare soil and by canopy interception. Only 7.1% infiltrates to soil layers deeper than 200 cm contributing to the water table recharge. Fourier time series analysis, cross‐correlation methods and multiple linear regression models were used to analyse 11 years of remote sensing data to assess determinants of water fluxes. A linear model predicts well the variables that drive complex ecosystem processes such as ET. Leaf area index and air temperature were not linearly correlated to ET because of the multiple interaction among variables resulting in time lags with ET variations and thus these two variables were not included in the linear model. Soil water content, the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation and precipitation explained 86% of the ET monthly variations. The high volumetric water content and the small seasonal variations at 200‐cm depth were probably the result of little water uptake from deeper soil horizons by roots with low hydraulic conductivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献