Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel W. Chambers  Jenny A. Baglivo  John E. Ebel  Alan L. Kafka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(4):625-639

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock within 1, 5, and 10 days in the entire study region or in specific subregions and are based on the observations available at the forecast time, namely the interevent times and locations of the previous mainshocks and the elapsed time since the most recent one. Hidden Markov models have been applied to many problems, including earthquake classification; this is the first application to earthquake forecasting.  相似文献   

Improved microseismic event location by inclusion of a priori dip particle motion: a case study from Ekofisk   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

G.A. Jones  D. Raymer  K. Chambers  J.‐M. Kendall 《Geophysical Prospecting》2010,58(5):727-737

Microseismic monitoring in petroleum settings provides insights into induced and naturally occurring stress changes. Such data are commonly acquired using an array of sensors in a borehole, providing measures of arrival times and polarizations. Events are located using 1D velocity models, P‐ and S‐wave arrival times and the azimuths of P‐wave particle motions. However in the case of all the sensors being deployed in a vertical or near‐vertical borehole, such analysis leads to an inherent 180° ambiguity in the source location. Here we present a location procedure that removes this ambiguity by using the dip of the particle motion as an a priori information to constrain the initial source location. The new procedure is demonstrated with a dataset acquired during hydraulic fracture stimulation, where we know which side of the monitoring well the events are located. Using a 5‐step location procedure, we then reinvestigate a microseismic data set acquired in April 1997 at the Ekofisk oilfield in the North Sea. Traveltimes for 2683 candidate events are manually picked. A noise‐weighted analytic‐signal polarization analysis is used to estimate the dip and azimuth of P‐wave particle motions. A modified t‐test is used to statistically assess the reliability of event location. As a result, 1462 events are located but 627 are deemed to be statistically reliable. The application of a hierarchal cluster analysis highlights coherent structures that cluster around wells and inferred faults. Most events cluster at a depth of roughly 3km in the Ekofisk chalk formation but very little seismicity is observed from the underlying Tor chalk formation, which is separated from the Ekofisk formation by an impermeable layer. We see no evidence for seismicity in the overburden but such events may be too distant to detect. The resulting picture of microseismicity at Ekofisk is very different from those presented in previous studies.  相似文献   

Source regions and timescales for the delivery of water to the Earth     

A. Morbidelli  J. Chambers  J. I. Lunine  J. M. Petit  F. Robert  G. B. Valsecchi  K. E. Cyr 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2000,35(6):1309-1320

Abstract— In the primordial solar system, the most plausible sources of the water accreted by the Earth were in the outer asteroid belt, in the giant planet regions, and in the Kuiper Belt. We investigate the implications on the origin of Earth's water of dynamical models of primordial evolution of solar system bodies and check them with respect to chemical constraints. We find that it is plausible that the Earth accreted water all along its formation, from the early phases when the solar nebula was still present to the late stages of gas‐free sweepup of scattered planetesimals. Asteroids and the comets from the Jupiter‐Saturn region were the first water deliverers, when the Earth was less than half its present mass. The bulk of the water presently on Earth was carried by a few planetary embryos, originally formed in the outer asteroid belt and accreted by the Earth at the final stage of its formation. Finally, a late veneer, accounting for at most 10% of the present water mass, occurred due to comets from the Uranus‐Neptune region and from the Kuiper Belt. The net result of accretion from these several reservoirs is that the water on Earth had essentially the D/H ratio typical of the water condensed in the outer asteroid belt. This is in agreement with the observation that the D/H ratio in the oceans is very close to the mean value of the D/H ratio of the water inclusions in carbonaceous chondrites.  相似文献   

Rapid inversion of data from 2D resistivity surveys with electrode displacements          下载免费PDF全文

M.H. Loke  P.B. Wilkinson  J.E. Chambers  P.I. Meldrum 《Geophysical Prospecting》2018,66(3):579-594

Resistivity monitoring surveys are used to detect temporal changes in the subsurface using repeated measurements over the same site. The positions of the electrodes are typically measured at the start of the survey program and possibly at occasional later times. In areas with unstable ground, such as landslide‐prone slopes, the positions of the electrodes can be displaced by ground movements. If this occurs at times when the positions of the electrodes are not directly measured, they have to be estimated. This can be done by interpolation or, as in recent developments, from the resistivity data using new inverse methods. The smoothness‐constrained least squares optimisation method can be modified to include the electrode positions as additional unknown parameters. The Jacobian matrices with the sensitivity of the apparent resistivity measurements to changes in the electrode positions are then required by the optimisation method. In this paper, a fast adjoint‐equation method is used to calculate the Jacobian matrices required by the least squares method to reduce the calculation time. In areas with large near‐surface resistivity contrasts, the inversion routine sometimes cannot accurately distinguish between electrode displacements and subsurface resistivity variations. To overcome this problem, the model for the initial time‐lapse dataset (with accurately known electrode positions) is used as the starting model for the inversion of the later‐time dataset. This greatly improves the accuracy of the estimated electrode positions compared to the use of a homogeneous half‐space starting model. In areas where the movement of the electrodes is expected to occur in a fixed direction, the method of transformations can be used to include this information as an additional constraint in the optimisation routine.  相似文献   

Importance of terrestrially-derived,particulate phosphorus to phosphorus dynamics in a west coast estuary     

R. M. Chambers  J. W. Fourqurean  J. T. Hollibaugh  S. M. Vink 《Estuaries and Coasts》1995,18(3):518-526

Allochthonous inputs of suspended particulate matter from freshwater environments to estuaries influence nutrient cycling and ecosystem metabolism. Contributions of different biogeochemical reactions to phosphorus dynamics in Tomales Bay, California, were determined by measuring dissolved inorganic phosphorus exchange between water and suspended particulate matter in response to changes in salinity, pH, and sediment redox. In serum bottle incubations of suspended particulate matter collected from the major tributary to the bay, dissolved inorganic phosphorus release increased with salinity during the initial 8 h; between 1–3 d, however, rates of release were similar among treatments of 0 psu, 16 psu, 24 psu, and 32 psu. Release was variable over the pH range 4–8.5, but dissolved inorganic phosphorus releases from sediments incubated for 24 h at the pH of fresh water (7.3) and seawater (8.1) were similarly small. Under oxidizing conditions, dissolved inorganic phosphorus release was small or dissolved inorganic phosphorus was taken up by particulate matter with total P content <50 μmoles P g^?1; release was greater from suspended particulate matter with total phosphorus content >50 μmoles P g^?1. In contrast, under reducing conditions maintained by addition of free sulfide (HS^?), dissolved inorganic phosphorus was released from particles at all concentrations of total phosphorus in suspended particulate matter, presumably from the reduction of iron oxides. Since extrapolated dissolved inorganic phosphorus release from this abiotic source can account for only 12.5% of the total dissolved inorganic phosphorus flux from Tomales Bay sediments, we conclude most release from particles is due to organic matter oxidation that occurs after estuarine deposition. The abiotic, sedimentary flux of dissolved inorganic phosphorus, however, could contribute up to 30% of the observed net export of dissolved inorganic phosphorus from the entire estuary.  相似文献   

Preferential flow and segregation of porewater solutes in Wetland sediment     

Judson W. Harvey  Randolph M. Chambers  James R. Hoelscher 《Estuaries and Coasts》1995,18(4):568-578

Sediment macropores (with effective diameters larger than 100 μm) comprise 11% of the bulk sediment volume in a tidal freshwater wetland vegetated withPeltandra virginica. In order to determine effects of macroporous sediment structure on solute transport, we conducted a solute tracer experiment in the sediment. The effective transport volume (θ_eff, the volume of sediment through which solute was transported normalized to sediment bulk volume) was 0.15 cm³ cm^?3, which is considerably smaller than the total pore space that is potentially available for transport (porosity of sediment is 0.63 cm³ cm^?3). A mean transport time of 13 d was required to flush preferential flow paths inPeltandra hummocks; hydrologic turnover of the volumetrically dominant matrix pores (0.53 cm³ cm^?3) was apparently much slower. Based on porewater sampler design and hydrological principles, we suggest that N₂-purged tension solution samplers and diffusion equilibrators preferentially sample porewater from macropore and matrix domains, respectively. Dissolved ammonium and orthophosphate concentrations were three-fold higher in matrix pores compared to macropores, which is consistent with our finding that more rapid hydrological flushing occurred in macropores compared to matrix pores. Further evaluation of porewater sampler designs in macroporous sediment is needed to improve studies of hydrologic transport and biogeochemical cycling in wetlands.  相似文献   

A flucturing water-level chamber for biogeochemical experiments in tidal marshes     

Randolph M. Chambers 《Estuaries and Coasts》1992,15(1):53-58

An experimental chamber is described which is closed to the water column but encompasses a selected section of the marsh surface. The microcosm is connected to a subsurface collapsible reservoir which functions as a flood water source. Head differences due to tidal fluctuations force reservoir water into and out of the microcosm, so that over complete tidal cycles the net exchanges of materials can be quantified. For this study, seasonal patterns of ammonium and phosphate dynamics in a tidal freshwater marsh were determined using four experimental chambers. On average, phosphate was removed from the water column during the spring, and released to the water column during summer and early fall. Seasonal patterns of ammonium dynamics were less clear, but the marsh removed ammonium from the water column on two of three summer sampling dates. Ammonium and phosphate removal from replicated chambers in vegetated sections of the marsh complex was greater than from unvegetated sections, indicating spatial heterogeneity of nutrient processing. The use of chambers in tidal marshes creates the opportunity to run controlled experiments in situ without imposing artificial hydrologic regimes.  相似文献   

A microscopic study of the combustion residues of subbituminous and bituminous coals from Alberta, Canada     

Thomas Gentzis  Allan Chambers 《International Journal of Coal Geology》1993,24(1-4)

Chars produced by the combustion of a set of three coals from Alberta, Canada, were classified morphologically using reflected light microscopy. Produced chars are different in morphological features, pore thickness, anisotropy and degree of reactivity, because of differences in the vitrinite and inertinite contents.The subbituminous A coal produced the highest percentage of unreactive or slightly reactive components due to its high inertinite content (20.0%), followed by isotropic cenospheres. Isotropic cenospheres, both thin- and thick-walled, and exploded cenospheres are the characteristic chars produced by the high-voltile bituminous B coal, whereas the low-volatile bituminous coking coal produced cenospheres with granular anisotropy (mosaic) on the walls and abundant coke fragmentsOptical microscopy is useful in differentiating the performance of a series of coals during combustion based on petrographic composition and rank and can aid in understanding the relationship between ‘reactive’ and ‘non-reactive’ coal macerals to burnout performance.  相似文献   

Interferometric Measurements of the Interaction of Two Plasmas in a Transverse Magnetic Field     

C. D. Gregory  A. D. Ash  D. M. Chambers  C. Courtois  R. A. D. Grundy  N. C. Woolsey 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,298(1-2):389-393

Presented are interferometric results of the interaction of two plasmas without and with a magnetic field. This study is based on the collision-free interaction of two millimetre-scale, counter-streaming plasmas – a proposed experimental simulation of shock production in a supernova remnant. This collision-free interaction is compared with a separate set of experiments with an external 7.5 T magnetic field applied. The interaction dynamics are inferred from spatially and temporally resolved electron density measurements, and the effect of the magnetic field on the plasma interaction is discussed.  相似文献   

Peatlands and environmental change,D. Charman. Publisher John Wiley and Sons Ltd,Chichester 2002 (301 pp) ISBN 0 471 96990 7 (HB) 0 471 84410 8 (PB)     

Frank Chambers 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(5):466-466

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