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191.
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We use probability density functions (pdfs) of sums of orbit coordinates, over time intervals of the order of one Hubble time, to distinguish weakly from strongly chaotic orbits in a barred galaxy model. We find that, in the weakly chaotic case, quasi-stationary states arise, whose pdfs are well approximated by q-Gaussian functions (with 1 <?q < 3), while strong chaos is identified by pdfs which quickly tend to Gaussians (q =?1). Typical examples of weakly chaotic orbits are those that ??stick?? to islands of ordered motion. Their presence in rotating galaxy models has been investigated thoroughly in recent years due to their ability to support galaxy structures for relatively long time scales. In this paper, we demonstrate, on specific orbits of 2 and 3 degree of freedom barred galaxy models, that the proposed statistical approach can distinguish weakly from strongly chaotic motion accurately and efficiently, especially in cases where Lyapunov exponents and other local dynamic indicators appear to be inconclusive.  相似文献   
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The drought of summer 2018, which affected much of Northern Europe, resulted in low river flows, biodiversity loss and threats to water supplies. In some regions, like the Scottish Highlands, the summer drought followed two consecutive, anomalously dry, winter periods. Here, we examine how the drought, and its antecedent conditions, affected soil moisture, groundwater storage, and low flows in the Bruntland Burn; a sub-catchment of the Girnock Burn long-term observatory in the Scottish Cairngorm Mountains. Fifty years of rainfall-runoff observations and long-term modelling studies in the Girnock provided unique contextualisation of this extreme event in relation to more usual summer storage dynamics. Whilst summer precipitation in 2018 was only 63% of the long-term mean, soil moisture storage across much of the catchment were less than half of their summer average and seasonal groundwater levels were 0.5 m lower than normal. Hydrometric and isotopic observations showed that ~100 mm of river flows during the summer (May-Sept) were sustained almost entirely by groundwater drainage, representing ~30% of evapotranspiration that occurred over the same period. A key reason that the summer drought was so severe was because the preceding two winters were also dry and failed to adequately replenish catchment soil moisture and groundwater stores. As a result, the drought had the biggest catchment storage deficits for over a decade, and likely since 1975–1976. Despite this, recovery was rapid in autumn/winter 2018, with soil and groundwater stores returning to normal winter values, along with stream flows. The study emphasizes how long-term data from experimental sites are key to understanding the non-linear flux-storage interactions in catchments and the “memory effects” that govern the evolution of, and recovery from, droughts. This is invaluable both in terms of (a) giving insights into hydrological behaviours that will become more common water resource management problems in the future under climate change and (b) providing extreme data to challenge hydrological models.  相似文献   
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Recent studies have highlighted the importance of understanding ecohydrological drought feedbacks to secure water resources under a changing climate and increasing anthropogenic impacts. In this study, we monitored and modelled feedbacks in the soil–plant-atmosphere continuum to the European drought summer 2018 and the following 2 years. The physically based, isotope-aided model EcH2O-iso was applied to generic vegetation plots (forest and grassland) in the lowland, groundwater-dominated research catchment Demnitzer Millcreek (NE Germany; 66 km2). We included, inter alia, soil water isotope data in the model calibration and quantified changing “blue” (groundwater recharge) and “green” (evapotranspiration) water fluxes and ages under each land use as the drought progressed. Novel plant xylem isotope data were excluded from calibration but were compared with simulated root uptake signatures in model validation. Results indicated inter-site differences in the dynamics of soil water storage and fluxes with contrasting water age both during the drought and the subsequent 2 years. Forest vegetation consistently showed a greater moisture stress, more rapid recovery and higher variability in root water uptake depths from a generally younger soil water storage. In contrast, the grassland site, which had more water-retentive soils, showed higher and older soil water storage and groundwater recharge fluxes. The damped storage and flux dynamics under grassland led to a slower return to younger water ages at depth. Such evidence-based and quantitative differences in ecohydrological feedbacks to drought stress in contrasting soil-vegetation units provide important insights into Critical Zone water cycling. This can help inform future progress in the monitoring, modelling and development of climate mitigation strategies in drought-sensitive lowlands.  相似文献   
195.
The aim of this study was to establish the source and provenance of sediments deposited in a large floodplain sink during extreme floods in the Lockyer Creek catchment, Australia, in 2011 and 2013. We place the sediment source patterns in context of the longer-term record to determine whether coarse-grained sediment sources (i.e., very fine sand to very coarse sand) and the spatio-temporal pattern of (dis)connectivity have changed over time. We do this by matching the geochemical properties and age structure of a sediment profile located in a downstream floodplain sink to the elemental composition of source sediments. One hundred and fifty-seven sediment samples from 20 sites across the catchment are analysed using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometry to compare the elemental ratio composition of the downstream floodplain sink to its source materials. We use Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating to determine the age structure of the sediments in the floodplain sink. The northern tributaries and parts of the Lockyer River trunk stream are the primary sources of coarse sediment. These areas are connected (coupled) to the lower trunk stream and floodplain sediment sink. Southern tributaries are largely disconnected (decoupled) and supply little sediment to the floodplain sediment sink. This pattern of sediment source contribution has remained similar over the last 6.8 ka at least. Sediment sources as observed in the 2011 flood have predominated over the mid-late Holocene whilst those in the 2013 flood are rare.  相似文献   
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We study the 37 brightest radio sources in the Subaru/ XMM–Newton Deep Field. We have spectroscopic redshifts for 24 of 37 objects and photometric redshifts for the remainder, yielding a median redshift z med for the whole sample of   z med≃ 1.1  and a median radio luminosity close to the 'Fanaroff–Riley type I/type II (FR I/FR II)' luminosity divide. Using mid-infrared (mid-IR) ( Spitzer MIPS 24 μm) data we expect to trace nuclear accretion activity, even if it is obscured at optical wavelengths, unless the obscuring column is extreme. Our results suggest that above the FR I/FR II radio luminosity break most of the radio sources are associated with objects that have excess mid-IR emission, only some of which are broad-line objects, although there is one clear low-accretion-rate object with an FR I radio structure. For extended steep-spectrum radio sources, the fraction of objects with mid-IR excess drops dramatically below the FR I/FR II luminosity break, although there exists at least one high-accretion-rate 'radio-quiet' QSO. We have therefore shown that the strong link between radio luminosity (or radio structure) and accretion properties, well known at z ∼ 0.1, persists to z ∼ 1. Investigation of mid-IR and blue excesses shows that they are correlated as predicted by a model in which, when significant accretion exists, a torus of dust absorbs ∼30 per cent of the light, and the dust above and below the torus scatters ≳1 per cent of the light.  相似文献   
200.
Houser  Chris  Vlodarchyk  Brent  Wernette  Phil 《Natural Hazards》2019,97(3):1395-1405
Natural Hazards - Informing and warning beach users about the danger posed by the rip current hazard remain a difficult challenge. Recent evidence suggests that warning signs and flags alone have...  相似文献   
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