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41.
A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (R m) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa min). The correlation between lnR m and lnaa min (r=0.92) is slightly stronger than that between R m and aa min (r=0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of R m(24)=81.7(1±13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between R m and aa min (r=0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, R m(24)=52.5±13.1. Therefore, the prediction of R m based on the relationship between R m and aa min depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa.  相似文献   
42.
Landslide mapping is essential for effective watershed management. In Taiwan, a typhoon or earthquake event can trigger hundreds, even thousands, of shallow landslides in mountainous watersheds. Thus, improving the efficiency of landslide mapping by means of remote sensing techniques is an important issue. This study proposes a new method that uses concurrent aerial laser scanning (ALS) data and color ortho-imagery as input data: the topographic indices of slope, surface roughness, and object height model can be derived from the ALS data and the Green–Red Vegetation Index from the ortho-images. The method first uses these topographic and spectral indices in a global, semi-automatic algorithm to separate landslide from non-landslide pixels. It then offers a region growing tool and a 3D Eraser/Painter to edit detected landslides locally. These global and local operations are designed with a user interface, which is intuitive and user-friendly. Results from four test sites in a mountainous watershed prove that the method is easy, accurate, and suitable for landslide mapping in Taiwan.  相似文献   
43.
We use the Cambridge stellar evolution code stars to model the evolution of 5 and  7 M  zero-metallicity stars. With enhanced resolution at the hydrogen- and helium-burning shell in the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phases, we are able to model the entire thermally pulsing AGB (TP-AGB) phase. The helium luminosities of the thermal pulses are significantly lower than in higher metallicity stars so there is no third dredge-up. The envelope is enriched in nitrogen by hot-bottom burning of carbon that was previously mixed in during second dredge-up. There is no s -process enrichment owing to the lack of third dredge-up. The thermal pulses grow weaker as the core mass increases and they eventually cease. From then on the star enters a quiescent burning phase which lasts until carbon ignites at the centre of the star when the CO core mass is  1.36 M  . With such a high degeneracy and a core mass so close to the Chandrasekhar mass, we expect these stars to explode as type 1.5 supernovae, very similar to type Ia supernovae but inside a hydrogen-rich envelope.  相似文献   
44.
The Tagged Species Source Apportionment (TSSA) algorithm is applied to study contributions to pollutants PM sulfate, SO2 and elemental carbon (EC) in Hong Kong by emitting sectors as well as non-emitting sources within and beyond the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. We look at three areas of Hong Kong: western new towns, central downtown, and eastern countryside. Pollutant transport from beyond the PRD influenced all three areas during January and October 2004 but the source sectors impacting the three areas were different. Specifically, power plant SO2 from Hong Kong and Shenzhen, and vehicle EC from Shenzhen contribute to 11?~?66?% of SO2 concentration, and 33?~?75?% of EC concentration in the western new towns, respectively. Ships in and around Hong Kong contribute 8?~?56?% to the sulfate concentration in the downtown area, while local moving vehicles take up 28?~?81?% of the EC concentration there. The study also shows that diurnal variation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) causes day-night difference in SO2 by as much as 50?%. In addition, 13?~?38?% of all SO2 emissions have been converted to PM sulfate.  相似文献   
45.
Construction of frequency–magnitude (F–M) relationships of debris floods and debris flows is challenging because of few direct observations, discontinuous event occurrence, loss of field evidence, the difficulty of accessing the sediment archive and the challenge of finding suitable statistical methods to analyse the dataset. Consultants often face budget limitations that prohibit application of the full gamut of absolute dating methods, stratigraphic analysis and analytical tools necessary to fully resolve the F–M legacy. In some cases, F–M curves are needed for watersheds without local information, or where obtaining this information is prohibitively expensive. For such watersheds, the F–M relationship may be estimated where several F–M curves have already been assembled in a specific region. Individual F–M curves are normalized by fan area or fan volume, then stratified by process type and geomorphic activity level. This paper describes the development of regional F–M curves for debris flows in southwestern British Columbia and debris flows and debris floods in the Bow River valley near Canmore, Alberta. We apply the regional relationships to other cases in Canada and the United States and demonstrate that the method can be globalized. The regional approach is compared to cases where detailed F–M relationships have been established by other means. Strong negative deviations from the regional debris-flow or debris-flood magnitude trends could signal inherent watershed stability, while strong positive deviations could signal extraordinary landslide processes, or suggest that the fan may be largely of paraglacial origin. We highlight some of these outlying cases and develop a method whereby the regional curves can be meaningfully adjusted, or reliance can be placed on lower or upper confidence bounds of the F–M curves. We caution against the indiscriminate use of the regionally based F–M curves, especially in watersheds where multiple geomorphic processes are active. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
46.
Remote sensing data sets and a high-resolution three-dimensional regional ocean model were utilized to investigate the shifting of warm/cold regime and the associated sea level variation in the South China Sea (SCS) during 2000–2003. Both the altimetry data and the model results showed an increase in the sea level (warm phase) followed by an abrupt decrease (cold phase) in the SCS during 2000–2003. Heat budget calculations performed with the model revealed excess heat advection from the western Pacific warm pool into the SCS during the warm phase than the cold phase. The warm phase, which occurred during La Niña episodes, resulted from the intrusion of abnormally warmer western Pacific water that increased the heat content and thus sea level in the SCS. The cold phase, which occurred during El Niño episodes, was triggered by a reduction in the net atmospheric heat flux followed by cold water advection into the SCS. Decrease in the rate of precipitation minus evaporation (P?E) also accounted for the falling of sea level during cold phase. The present study integrated the available remote sensing data and advanced numerical model to identify the time-dependent three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic forcing that are important in governing the warm/cold regime shift in the SCS.  相似文献   
47.
Today, ground-based optical remote sensing (ORS) has become an intensively used method for quantifying pollutant or greenhouse gas emissions from point or area sources, and for the validation of airborne or satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we present the results of a release experiment using acetylene (C2H2) as a tracer gas, where three ORS techniques were simultaneously tested for two main purposes: (1) the detection of emission sources and (2) the quantification of release rates. Therefore, passive and active open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (OP-FTIR) and open-path tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) were applied and evaluated. The concentration results of the active ORS methods are compared to those estimated by a Lagrangian stochastic atmospheric dispersion model. Our results reveal that passive OP-FTIR is a valuable tool for the rapid detection and imaging of emission sources and the spatial tracer gas distribution; while with active OP-FTIR and TDLAS, C2H2 concentrations in the sub-ppm range could be quantified that correlated well with the concentration data obtained by our modeling approach.  相似文献   
48.
The relationship between the upper ocean thermal structure and the genesis locations of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated by using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track archives and high resolution (1/4 degree) temperature analyses of the world's oceans in this paper In the monthly mean genesis positions of TCs from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, the mean sea surface temperature (SST) was 28.8℃ and the mean depth of 26℃ water was 53.1 m. From the monthly distribution maps of genesis positions of TCs, SST and the depth of 26℃ water in the SCS, we discovered that there existed regions with SST exceeding 26℃ and 26℃ water depth exceeding 50m where no tropical cyclones formed from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, which suggests that there were other factors unfavorable for TC formation in these regions.  相似文献   
49.
The passive sampler called 'Artificial Mussel' (AM) developed by Wu et al. (2007) can provide a time-integrated estimate of metal concentrations in the marine environment, and offers a potential device to assess and compare metal concentration in different marine environments worldwide. The aim of this study was to compare metal accumulation on AM and natural mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis at three sites with different metal loads along the Portuguese coast for four months. M. galloprovincialis were placed in cages alongside AMs at each site. Samples were collected monthly and Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn concentrations in whole soft tissues and AMs compared. For both Cu and Cd, the results were similar between AMs and natural mussels. Higher concentrations of Zn were observed in natural mussels, whereas the inverse was shown for Pb (about 10-fold higher). Our results showed that AMs are promising tools for assessing metal concentrations in marine environments.  相似文献   
50.
Landslide erosion is a dominant hillslope process and the main source of stream sediment in tropical, tectonically active mountain belts. In this study, we quantified landslide erosion triggered by 24 rainfall events from 2001 to 2009 in three mountainous watersheds in Taiwan and investigated relationships between landslide erosion and rainfall variables. The results show positive power‐law relations between landslide erosion and rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, with scaling exponents ranging from 2·94 to 5·03. Additionally, landslide erosion caused by Typhoon Morakot is of comparable magnitude to landslide erosion caused by the Chi‐Chi Earthquake (MW = 7·6) or 22–24 years of basin‐averaged erosion. Comparison of the three watersheds indicates that deeper landslides that mobilize soil and bedrock are triggered by long‐duration rainfall, whereas shallow landslides are triggered by short‐duration rainfall. These results suggest that rainfall intensity and watershed characteristics are important controls on rainfall‐triggered landslide erosion and that severe typhoons, like high‐magnitude earthquakes, can generate high rates of landslide erosion in Taiwan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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