The impact of boundary on the fractional advection–dispersion equation for solute transport in soil: Defining the fractional dispersive flux with the Caputo derivatives     

Xiaoxian Zhang  Mouchao Lv  John W. Crawford  Iain M. Young 《Advances in water resources》2007

The inherent heterogeneity of geological media often results in anomalous dispersion for solute transport through them, and how to model it has been an interest over the past few decades. One promising approach that has been increasingly used to simulate the anomalous transport in surface and subsurface water is the fractional advection–dispersion equation (FADE), derived as a special case of the more general continuous time random walk or the stochastic continuum model. In FADE, the dispersion is not local and the solutes have appreciable probability to move long distances, and thus reach the boundary faster than predicted by the classical advection–dispersion equation (ADE). How to deal with different boundaries associated with FADE and their consequent impact is an issue that has not been thoroughly explored. In this paper we address this by taking one-dimensional solute movement in soil columns as an example. We show that the commonly used FADE with its fractional derivatives defined by the Riemann–Liouville definition is problematic and could result in unphysical results for solute transport in bounded domains; a modified method with the fractional dispersive flux defined by the Caputo derivatives is presented to overcome this problem. A finite volume approach is given to numerically solve the modified FADE and its associated boundaries. With the numerical model, we analyse the inlet-boundary treatment in displacement experiments in soil columns, and find that, as in ADE, treating the inlet as a prescribed concentration boundary gives rise to mass-balance errors and such errors could be more significant in FADE because of its non-local dispersion. We also discuss a less-documented but important issue in hydrology: how to treat the upstream boundary in analysing the lateral movement of tracer in an aquifer when the tracer is injected as a pulse. It is shown that the use of an infinite domain, as commonly assumed in literature, leads to unphysical backward dispersion, which has a significant impact on data interpretation. To avoid this, the upstream boundary should be flux-prescribed and located at the upstream edge of the injecting point. We apply the model to simulate the movement of Cl⁻ in a tracer experiment conducted in a saturated hillslope, and analyse in details the significance of upstream-boundary treatments in parameter estimation.  相似文献   

The hazard exposure of the Maltese Islands     

Geoff Main  John Schembri  Ritienne Gauci  Kevin Crawford  David Chester  Angus Duncan 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):829-855

International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR).  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic accident fatality in Bangladesh integrating newspaper accounts and gridded population data     

Munshi Khaledur Rahman  Thomas Crawford  Thomas W. Schmidlin 《GeoJournal》2018,83(4):645-661

Road traffic accidents pose serious threats to human lives and often cause premature deaths, disabilities, and socioeconomic impacts. The objective of this study is to analyze the fatal road traffic accidents in Bangladesh by performing a space–time characterization of fatality rates involving an innovative newspaper-based method in concert with gridded population data to construct a road traffic fatality database. Kernel density estimation, temporal data plots and space–time pattern mining tools that combine the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic with the Mann–Kendall test are used to describe spatio-temporal hotspots/coldspots and trends. Results show different patterns between the urban and rural areas of Bangladesh and higher rates of road traffic accidents occur in the metropolitan regions (Dhaka) and in a northern region centered on Sirajganj area. Most of the road traffic accidents took place in between 9:00 and 12:00 pm while the accident rates remain low between 12:00 and 3:00 am. Spacetime analysis results reveal a core region of persistently high rates along with four smaller regions with high and intensifying rates. The output of this study could be useful to reduce road traffic fatalities, injuries, increase awareness, and adopt necessary interventions for public safety through integrating both the local, regional, and central level decision makers of public transportation policy and issues in Bangladesh. The approach has potential to be translated to other developing countries.  相似文献   

Recent population trends of sooty and light-mantled albatrosses breeding on Marion Island     

S Schoombie  RJM Crawford  AB Makhado  BM Dyer  PG Ryan 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(1):119-127

Sub-Antarctic Marion Island is one of the few islands where both species of Phoebetria albatrosses breed sympatrically. The last published assessment of their population trends, which reported counts up to 2008, concluded that the numbers of breeding pairs of sooty albatross P. fusca (Endangered) were decreasing, whereas numbers of light-mantled albatross P. palpebrata (Near Threatened) were increasing. Extending the counts to 2014 reversed these trends, with numbers of sooty albatrosses increasing from 2006 to 2014, and numbers of light-mantled albatrosses decreasing from 2007 to 2014. Confidence in island-wide counts is low due to the cryptic nature of the albatrosses on their largely inaccessible cliff-side nest sites, as well as counts for sooty albatrosses taking place late in the incubation period when 10?20% of nests have already failed. Given the greater conservation concern for the sooty albatross, we recommend that dedicated annual counts be conducted during the early incubation period, and be repeated shortly after the chicks hatch (late December), mid-way through the nestling period (late February) and prior to fledging (late April), to give a better idea of breeding success. Count zones also should be revised to facilitate more accurate counts, ensuring more reliable estimates of sooty albatross population trends at Marion Island.  相似文献