Three-Dimensional Modeling of Storm Surge and Inundation Including the Effects of Coastal Vegetation     

Andrew Lapetina  Y. Peter Sheng 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(4):1028-1040

Two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models are used to simulate the hurricane-induced storm surge and coastal inundation in regions with vegetation. Typically, 2D storm surge models use an enhanced Manning coefficient while 3D storm surge models use a roughness height to represent the effects of coastal vegetation on flow. This paper presents a 3D storm surge model which accurately resolves the effects of vegetation on the flow and turbulence. First, a vegetation-resolving 1DV Turbulent Kinetic Energy model (TKEM) is introduced and validated with laboratory data. This model is both robust enough to accurately model flows in complex canopies, while compact and efficient enough for incorporation into a 3D storm surge-wave modeling system: Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3D-Surface WAves Nearshore (CH3D-SWAN). Using the 3D vegetation-resolving model, three numerical experiments are conducted. In the first experiment, comparisons are made between the 2D Manning coefficient approach and the 3D vegetation-resolving approach for simple wind-driven flow. In a second experiment, 2D and 3D representations of vegetation produce similar inundations from the same hurricane forcing, but differences in momentum are found. In a final experiment, varying inundation between seemingly analogous 2D and 3D representations of vegetation are demonstrated, pointing to a significant scientific need for data within wetlands during storm surge events. This study shows that the complex flow structures within vegetation canopies can be accurately simulated using a vegetation-resolving 3D storm surge model, which can be used to assess the feasibility for future wetland restoration projects.  相似文献   

Discussion of “The Bushveld Complex,South Africa: formation of platinum–palladium,chrome- and vanadium-rich layers via hydrodynamic sorting of a mobilized cumulate slurry in a large,relatively slowly cooling,subsiding magma chamber” by Maier et al. (2013) Miner Deposita 48:1–56     

Roger N. Scoon  Andrew A. Mitchell 《Mineralium Deposita》2014,49(3):399-404

We believe the hypothesis presented by Maier et al. (Miner Deposita 48:1–56, 2012) for the formation of the various ore bodies in the Bushveld Complex to be overly simplistic, and we raise concerns that some of our work, used in support of this hypothesis, has been misrepresented. The formation of both diverse metalliferous layers (platinum-group element (PGE) reefs and Ti-magnetite layers) and some discordant (pipe) ore deposits has been ascribed by Maier et al. to the single unifying process of hydrodynamic sorting. The problem faced by authors of universal hypotheses for the Bushveld Complex is the sheer size and complexity of the intrusion. We disagree with many aspects of the overall Maier et al. model and have also identified several minor errors on maps and photographs, although some of these do not have a material effect on the model. The nature and origin of the layering is, however, too complex a topic to deal with in the context of this commentary, and we restrict ourselves to noting that our preferred hypothesis, namely the incremental buildup of layering from numerous episodes of replenishment, by different magma lineages, is consistent with field relationships. Our hypothesis for the origin of the ultramafic-hosted PGE-rich reefs, i.e., lateral mixing, is applicable to economically mineralized reefs (Mitchell and Scoon, Econ Geol 102:971–1009, 2007) and poorly mineralized layers such as the Pseudoreef harzburgite (Scoon and De Klerk, Canad Mineral 25:51–77, 1987) and the chromitite layers below the UG2 (Scoon and Teigler, Econ Geol 89:1094–1121, 1994).  相似文献   

Renewed Geoarchaeological Investigations of Mwanganda's Village (Elephant Butchery Site), Karonga,Malawi     

David K. Wright  Jessica Thompson  Alex Mackay  Menno Welling  Steven L. Forman  Gilbert Price  Jian‐xin Zhao  Andrew S. Cohen  Oris Malijani  Elizabeth Gomani‐Chindebvu 《Geoarchaeology》2014,29(2):98-120

The site of Mwanganda's Village, located along a paleochannel in northern Malawi, is one of only a few sites that have characterized the Middle Stone Age (MSA) of Malawi for decades (Clark & Haynes, 1970 ; Clark et al., 1970 ; Kaufulu, 1990 ). The Malawi Earlier‐Middle Stone Age Project has re‐examined the site using new mapping and chronometric tools in order to reinterpret the site's significance within the context of current debates surrounding human origins and the potential role the environment played in shaping human behavior. The new data do not support the previous hypothesis that the site was an elephant butchery location (contra Clark & Haynes, 1970 ; Clark et al., 1970 ; Kaufulu, 1990 ). Instead, the evidence shows successive colonization of riparian corridors by MSA hunter‐gatherers focused on exploiting localized resources during periods of generally humid climates while other lakes desiccated across Africa. We challenge the hypothesis that stable and intermediately high lake levels within the African Rift Valley System (sensu Trauth et al., 2010 ) catalyzed the evolution of regional interaction networks between 42 and 22 ka. Instead, we interpret the evidence to suggest that regional variants of technology persist into the late MSA as foragers focused on exploiting resources from local catchments.  相似文献   

Analysis of landslide causes and associated damages in the Kashmir Himalayas of Pakistan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Atta-ur Rahman  Amir Nawaz Khan  Andrew E. Collins 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):803-821

This article deals with the analysis of landslide causes and associated damages in the Kashmir Himalayas of Pakistan. The present study is based on Muzaffarabad, which lies in the lesser Himalayas. Geologically, the Kashmir Himalaya is the young and most dynamic system in the world. In Muzaffarabad, mostly, people live on the fragile mountain slopes, and therefore, they are highly vulnerable to the risk of landslides. To achieve the objectives of the study, data were collected both from primary and secondary sources. Primary data were obtained through intensive field work and human perception survey, while secondary data were obtained from the related line agencies. The analysis reveals that in the study area, immature geology, active seismic zone, wide range of temperature and seasonal rain are the major physical factors, whereas human interventions on the fragile slopes are intensifying factors which in effect contribute to the landslide incidence. As a result, the adverse impacts on housing, sources of livelihood earnings and human casualties are escalating day-by-day. There are several implementing agencies which are responsible for reducing the risk of landsliding. So far, these agencies have not reduced the landslide damages rather their intensity and frequency have been increased especially after 2005 Kashmir earthquake.  相似文献   

Evidence for temporally coherent increases in the abundance of small Discostella (Bacillariophyceae) species over the past 200 years among boreal lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (Canada)     

Wiltse  Brendan  Mushet  Graham R.  Paterson  Andrew M.  Cumming  Brian F. 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2022,67(3):273-287

Journal of Paleolimnology - Increased relative abundances and accumulation rates of the small, centric diatom Discostella have been recorded in numerous paleolimnological investigations of north...  相似文献   

Sequestration rental policies and price path of carbon     

Andrew G. Keeler 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):419-425

Abstract

Carbon rental has been suggested as a way of providing incentives to sequester carbon in biomass in the context of emissions trading systems for GHG emissions. A rental system works by issuing a credit for sequestered carbon that must be repaid after some fixed term. Rental systems avoid many of the difficulties of ensuring the permanence of sequestered carbon that exist in other institutional arrangements. This article adapts the results of Herzog et al. (2003) to argue that a rental system requires that carbon prices rise more slowly than the value of alternative investments in order to provide adequate incentives, and that there are good reasons to believe that this may not happen. Proponents need to directly address this potential difficulty in advancing arguments that carbon rental should be adopted as policy.  相似文献   

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?     

Couldrey  Matthew P.  Gregory  Jonathan M.  Boeira Dias  Fabio  Dobrohotoff  Peter  Domingues  Catia M.  Garuba  Oluwayemi  Griffies  Stephen M.  Haak  Helmuth  Hu  Aixue  Ishii  Masayoshi  Jungclaus  Johann  Köhl  Armin  Marsland  Simon J.  Ojha  Sayantani  Saenko  Oleg A.  Savita  Abhishek  Shao  Andrew  Stammer  Detlef  Suzuki  Tatsuo  Todd  Alexander  Zanna  Laure 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1-2):155-187

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

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Permafrost degradation and subsurface-flow changes caused by surface warming trends   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Andrew Frampton  Scott L. Painter  Georgia Destouni 《Hydrogeology Journal》2013,21(1):271-280

Change dynamics of permafrost thaw, and associated changes in subsurface flow and seepage into surface water, are analysed for different warming trends in soil temperature at the ground surface with a three-phase two-component flow system coupled to heat transport. Changes in annual, seasonal and extreme flows are analysed for three warming-temperature trends, representing simplified climate-change scenarios. The results support previous studies of reduced temporal variability of groundwater flow across all investigated trends. Decreased intra-annual flow variability may thus serve as an early indicator of permafrost degradation before longer-term changes in mean flows are notable. This is advantageous since hydrological data are considerably easier to obtain, may be available in longer time series, and generally reflect larger-scale conditions than direct permafrost observations. The results further show that permafrost degradation first leads to increasing water discharge, which then decreases as the permafrost degradation progresses further to total thaw. The most pronounced changes occur for minimum annual flows. The configuration considered represents subsurface discharge from a generic heterogeneous soil-type domain.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models     

Marco A. Iglesias  Kody J. H. Law  Andrew M. Stuart 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(5):851-885

The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our implementation of the MCMC method provides the gold standard against which the aforementioned Gaussian approximations are assessed. We present numerical synthetic experiments where we quantify the capability of each of the ad hoc Gaussian approximation in reproducing the mean and the variance of the posterior distribution (characterized via MCMC) associated to a data assimilation problem. Both single-phase and two-phase (oil–water) reservoir models are considered so that fundamental differences in the resulting forward operators are highlighted. The main objective of our controlled experiments was to exhibit the substantial discrepancies of the approximation properties of standard ad hoc Gaussian approximations. Numerical investigations of the type we present here will lead to the greater understanding of the cost-efficient, but ad hoc, Bayesian techniques used for data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs and hence ultimately to improved techniques with more accurate uncertainty quantification.  相似文献   

Nutrient Loading and Transformations in the Columbia River Estuary Determined by High-Resolution In Situ Sensors     

Melissa Gilbert  Joseph Needoba  Corey Koch  Andrew Barnard  Antonio Baptista 《Estuaries and Coasts》2013,36(4):708-727

The Columbia River estuary is characterized by relatively large tidal currents and water residence times of a few days or less. These and other environmental conditions tend to suppress water column productivity and favor the export of riverborne nutrients to the coastal ocean. However, hotspots of biological activity may allow for significant nutrient transformation and removal within the estuary, but these processes have previously been difficult to quantify due to the challenges of obtaining measurements at appropriate frequency and duration. In this study, nutrient biogeochemical dynamics within the salt-influenced region of the estuary were quantified using high-resolution in situ observations of nutrients and physical water properties. During 2010, three autonomous nutrient sensors (Satlantic SUNA, SubChem Systems Inc. APNA, WET Labs Cycle-PO4) that together measured nitrate?+?nitrite, orthophosphate, ammonium, silicic acid, and nitrite were deployed on fixed observatory platforms. Hourly measurements captured tidal fluctuations and permitted an analysis of river and ocean end-member mixing. The results suggested that during summer, the lower estuary released high concentrations of ammonium and phosphate despite low concentrations in the river and coastal ocean. This was likely a result of organic matter accumulation and remineralization in the estuarine turbidity maximum and the lateral bays adjacent to the main channel.  相似文献