Projected climate change scenario over California by a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model system     

Haiqin Li  Masao Kanamitsu  Song-You Hong  Kei Yoshimura  Daniel R. Cayan  Vasubandhu Misra  Liqiang Sun 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):609-619

This study examines a future climate change scenario over California in a 10-km coupled regional downscaling system of the Regional Spectral Model for the atmosphere and the Regional Ocean Modeling System for the ocean forced by the global Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3). In summer, the coupled and uncoupled downscaled experiments capture the warming trend of surface air temperature, consistent with the driving CCSM3 forcing. However, the surface warming change along the California coast is weaker in the coupled downscaled experiment than it is in the uncoupled downscaling. Atmospheric cooling due to upwelling along the coast commonly appears in both the present and future climates, but the effect of upwelling is not fully compensated for by the projected large-scale warming in the coupled downscaling experiment. The projected change of extreme warm events is quite different between the coupled and uncoupled downscaling experiments, with the former projecting a more moderate change. The projected future change in precipitation is not significantly different between coupled and uncoupled downscaling. Both the coupled and uncoupled downscaling integrations predict increased onshore sea breeze change in summer daytime and reduced offshore land breeze change in summer nighttime along the coast from the Bay area to Point Conception. Compared to the simulation of present climate, the coupled and uncoupled downscaling experiments predict 17.5 % and 27.5 % fewer Catalina eddy hours in future climate respectively.  相似文献   

Geophysical exploration on the subsurface geology of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field (NE Iberian Peninsula)     

Xavier Bolós  Stéphanie Barde-Cabusson  Dario Pedrazzi  Joan Martí  Albert Casas  Raúl Lovera  Daniel Nadal-Sala 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(8):2255-2269

We applied self-potential (SP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the exploration of the uppermost part of the substrate geology and shallow structure of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field, part of the European Neogene–Quaternary volcanic province. The aim of the study was to improve knowledge of the shallowest part of the feeding system of these monogenetic volcanoes and of its relationship with the subsurface geology. This study complements previous geophysical studies carried out at a less detailed scale and aimed at identifying deeper structures, and together will constitute the basis to establish volcanic susceptibility in La Garrotxa. SP study complemented previous smaller-scale studies and targeted key areas where ERT could be conducted. The main new results include the generation of resistivity models identifying dykes and faults associated with several monogenetic cones. The combined results confirm that shallow tectonics controlling the distribution of the foci of eruptive activity in this volcanic zone mainly correspond to NNW–SSE and accessorily by NNE–SSW Neogene extensional fissures and faults and concretely show the associated magmatic intrusions. These structures coincide with the deeper ones identified in previous studies, and show that previous Alpine tectonic structures played no apparent role in controlling the loci of this volcanism. Moreover, the results obtained show that the changes in eruption dynamics occurring at different vents located at relatively short distances in this volcanic area are controlled by shallow stratigraphical, structural and hydrogeological differences underneath these monogenetic volcanoes.  相似文献   

Diversity and Habitat Distribution of Birds in Coastal Marshes and Comparisons with Surrounding Upland Habitats in Southeastern South America     

Juan Pablo Isacch  Daniel Augusto Cardoni  Oscar Osvaldo Iribarne 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(1):229-239

We studied variation in bird assemblages with plant associations for three different coastal marshes from Southeastern South America (SESA) and assessed how marsh bird assemblages related to nearby upland bird assemblages. We surveyed bird species and plant structure along the tidal gradient of each locality from the low tide level to the upper habitats bordering coastal marshes. Twenty species frequently used coastal marshes, including relatively few migratory species. We found that birds occurring in SESA coastal marshes do not have distributions constrained to coastal marshes. Nonetheless, four bird assemblages were recognized in association with vegetation types and/or sites. Among the recorded coastal marsh species, the bay-capped wren-spinetail (Spartonoica maluroides) is both the most frequent and the most habitat constrained. Bird richness increases steadily along the tidal gradient associated with the increase in vegetation structure, suggesting that bird richness is directly explained by vegetation and indirectly by the physical conditions influencing vegetation structure. Results highlight the importance of SESA middle marshes as habitat for conservation of some threatened SESA grassland birds.  相似文献   

Relationship between Hypoxia and Macrobenthic Production in Chesapeake Bay     

S. Kersey Sturdivant  Robert J. Díaz  Roberto Llansó  Daniel M. Dauer 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(5):1219-1232

Human development has degraded Chesapeake Bay's health, resulting in an increase in the extent and severity of hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l^-1). The Bay's hypoxic zones have an adverse effect on both community structure and secondary production of macrobenthos. From 1996 to 2004, the effect of hypoxia on macrobenthic production was assessed in Chesapeake Bay and its three main tributaries (Potomac, Rappahannock, and York Rivers). Each year, in the summer (late July???early September), 25 random samples of the benthic macrofauna were collected from each system, and macrobenthic production in the polyhaline and mesohaline regions was estimated using Edgar's allometric equation. Fluctuations in macrobenthic production were significantly correlated with dissolved oxygen. Macrobenthic production was 90 % lower during hypoxia relative to normoxia. As a result, there was a biomass loss of ~7,320–13,200 metric tons C over an area of 7,720 km², which is estimated to equate to a 20 % to 35 % displacement of the Bay's macrobenthic productivity during the summer. While higher consumers may benefit from easy access to stressed prey in some areas, the large spatial and temporal extent of seasonal hypoxia limits higher trophic level transfer, via the inhibition of macrobenthic production. Such a massive loss of macrobenthic production would be detrimental to the overall health of the Bay, as it comes at a time when epibenthic and demersal predators have high-energy demands.  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167498711400067X   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Timo G.Nijland  Daniel E.Harlov  Tom Andersen 《地学前缘(英文版)》2014,5(5):635-658

The Proterozoic Bamble Sector, South Norway, is one of the world＇s classic amphiboliteto granulite- facies transition zones. It is characterized by a well-developed isograd sequence, with isolated ＇granulite-facies islands＇ in the amphibolite-facies portion of the transition zone. The area is notable for the discovery of C02-dominated fluid inclusions in the granolite-facies rocks by Jacques Touter in the late 1960＇s, which triggered discussion of the role of carbonic fluids during granulite genesis. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of the Bamble Sector, with an emphasis on the Arendal-Froland-Nelaug-Tvedestrand area and off shore islands （most prominantly Tromay and Hisoy） where the transition zone is best developed. After a brief overview of the history of geological research and mining in the area, aspects of sedimentary, metamorphic and magmatic petrology of the Bamble Sector are discussed, including the role of fluids. Issues relevant to current geotectonic models for SW Scandinavia, directly related to the Bamble Sector, are discussed at the end of the review.  相似文献   

Field characterization and data integration to define the hydraulic heterogeneity of a shallow granular aquifer at a sub-watershed scale     

Daniel Paradis  Laurie Tremblay  René Lefebvre  Erwan Gloaguen  Alfonso Rivera  Michel Parent  Jean-Marc Ballard  Yves Michaud  Patrick Brunet 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(5):1325-1348

Providing a sound basis for aquifer management or remediation requires that hydrogeological investigations carried out to understand groundwater flow and contaminant transport be based on representative data that capture the heterogeneous spatial distribution of aquifer hydraulic properties. This paper describes a general workflow allowing the characterization of the heterogeneity of the hydraulic properties of granular aquifers at an intermediate scale of a few km². The workflow involves characterization and data integration steps that were applied on a 12-km² study area encompassing a decommissioned landfill emitting a leachate plume and its main surface water receptors. The sediments composing the aquifer were deposited in a littoral–sublittoral environment and show evidence of small-scale transitional heterogeneities. Cone penetrometer tests (CPT) combined with soil moisture and electrical resistivity (SMR) measurements were thus used to identify and characterize spatial heterogeneities in hydraulic properties over the study area. Site-specific statistical relationships were needed to infer hydrofacies units and to estimate hydraulic properties from high-resolution CPT/SMR soundings distributed all over the study area. A learning machine approach was used due to the complex statistical relationships between colocated hydraulic and CPT/SMR data covering the full range of aquifer materials. Application of this workflow allowed the identification of hydrofacies units and the estimation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity and porosity over the study area. The paper describes and discusses data acquisition and integration methodologies that can be adapted to different field situations, while making the aquifer characterization process more time-efficient and less labor-intensive.  相似文献   

A Multiple Training Image Approach for Spatial Modeling of Geologic Domains     

Daniel A. Silva  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(7):815-840

Characterization of complex geological features and patterns remains one of the most challenging tasks in geostatistics. Multiple point statistics (MPS) simulation offers an alternative to accomplish this aim by going beyond classical two-point statistics. Reproduction of features in the final realizations is achieved by borrowing high-order spatial statistics from a training image. Most MPS algorithms use one training image at a time chosen by the geomodeler. This paper proposes the use of multiple training images simultaneously for spatial modeling through a scheme of data integration for conditional probabilities known as a linear opinion pool. The training images (TIs) are based on the available information and not on conceptual geological models; one image comes from modeling the categories by a deterministic approach and another comes from the application of conventional sequential indicator simulation. The first is too continuous and the second too random. The mixing of TIs requires weights for each of them. A methodology for calibrating the weights based on the available drillholes is proposed. A measure of multipoint entropy along the drillholes is matched by the combination of the two TIs. The proposed methodology reproduces geologic features from both TIs with the correct amount of continuity and variability. There is no need for a conceptual training image from another modeling technique; the data-driven TIs permit a robust inference of spatial structure from reasonably spaced drillhole data.  相似文献   

Scales and causes of heterogeneity in bars in a large multi‐channel river: Río Paraná, Argentina     

Arnold J. H. Reesink  Philip J. Ashworth  Gregory H. Sambrook Smith  James L. Best  Daniel R. Parsons  Mario L. Amsler  Richard J. Hardy  Stuart N. Lane  Andrew P. Nicholas  Oscar Orfeo  Steven D. Sandbach  Christopher J. Simpson  Ricardo N. Szupiany 《Sedimentology》2014,61(4):1055-1085

To date, published studies of alluvial bar architecture in large rivers have been restricted mostly to case studies of individual bars and single locations. Relatively little is known about how the depositional processes and sedimentary architecture of kilometre‐scale bars vary within a multi‐kilometre reach or over several hundreds of kilometres downstream. This study presents Ground Penetrating Radar and core data from 11, kilometre‐scale bars from the Río Paraná, Argentina. The investigated bars are located between 30 km upstream and 540 km downstream of the Río Paraná – Río Paraguay confluence, where a significant volume of fine‐grained suspended sediment is introduced into the network. Bar‐scale cross‐stratified sets, with lengths and widths up to 600 m and thicknesses up to 12 m, enable the distinction of large river deposits from stacked deposits of smaller rivers, but are only present in half the surface area of the bars. Up to 90% of bar‐scale sets are found on top of finer‐grained ripple‐laminated bar‐trough deposits. Bar‐scale sets make up as much as 58% of the volume of the deposits in small, incipient mid‐channel bars, but this proportion decreases significantly with increasing age and size of the bars. Contrary to what might be expected, a significant proportion of the sedimentary structures found in the Río Paraná is similar in scale to those found in much smaller rivers. In other words, large river deposits are not always characterized by big structures that allow a simple interpretation of river scale. However, the large scale of the depositional units in big rivers causes small‐scale structures, such as ripple sets, to be grouped into thicker cosets, which indicate river scale even when no obvious large‐scale sets are present. The results also show that the composition of bars differs between the studied reaches upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Río Paraguay. Relative to other controls on downstream fining, the tributary input of fine‐grained suspended material from the Río Paraguay causes a marked change in the composition of the bar deposits. Compared to the upstream reaches, the sedimentary architecture of the downstream reaches in the top ca 5 m of mid‐channel bars shows: (i) an increase in the abundance and thickness (up to metre‐scale) of laterally extensive (hundreds of metres) fine‐grained layers; (ii) an increase in the percentage of deposits comprised of ripple sets (to >40% in the upper bar deposits); and (iii) an increase in bar‐trough deposits and a corresponding decrease in bar‐scale cross‐strata (<10%). The thalweg deposits of the Río Paraná are composed of dune sets, even directly downstream from the Río Paraguay where the upper channel deposits are dominantly fine‐grained. Thus, the change in sedimentary facies due to a tributary point‐source of fine‐grained sediment is primarily expressed in the composition of the upper bar deposits.  相似文献   

Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Daniel Felsenstein  Michal Lichter 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):463-491

This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential.  相似文献   

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe     

Anna Scolobig  Nadejda Komendantova  Anthony Patt  Charlotte Vinchon  Daniel Monfort-Climent  Mendy Begoubou-Valerius  Paolo Gasparini  Angela Di Ruocco 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1523-1545

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.  相似文献