Assessing conditional extremal risk of flooding in Puerto Rico     

Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes  Luis Raúl Pericchi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):399-410

We model multivariate hydrological risks in the case that at least one of the variables is extreme. Recently, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extremes. J R Stat Soc B 66(3):497–546 (thereafter called HT04) proposed a conditional multivariate extreme value model which applies to regions where not all variables are extreme and simultaneously identifies the type of extremal dependence, including negative dependence. In this paper we apply this modeling strategy and provide an application to multivariate observations of five rivers in two clearly distinct regions of Puerto Rico Island and for two different seasons each. This effective dimensionality of ten-dimensions cannot be handled by the traditional models of multivariate extremes. The resulting fitted model, following HT04 model and strategies of estimation, is able to make long term estimation of extremes, conditional than other rivers are extreme or not. The model shows considerable flexibility to address the natural questions that arise in multivariate extreme value assessments. In the Puerto Rico 5 rivers application, the model clearly puts together two regions one of two rivers and another of three rivers, which show strong relationships in the rainy season. This corresponds with the geographical distribution of the rivers.

Beatriz Vaz de Melo MendesEmail:

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Shear effects on hollow section piers under seismic actions: experimental and numerical analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Raimundo Delgado  Pedro Delgado  Nelson Vila Pouca  António Arêde  Patrício Rocha  Aníbal Costa 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(2):377-389

Shear effects are often a very important issue on the seismic behaviour of piers, particularly for hollow section bridge piers. In fact, for this type of piers the cyclic response is similar to that of a structural wall in which both the transverse reinforcement ratio and the detailing can play an important role on its performance, even likely to be determinant in terms of the failure mechanism. On the other hand, codes and design guidelines are usually very conservative concerning shear capacity in order to avoid any shear failure mechanism likely to trigger well known catastrophic consequences. Therefore, research studies on this topic are still needed for a better understanding of pier cyclic shear response and also for improvement of the performance under seismic actions. Pursuing this general objective, this paper partially reports on an experimental/numerical campaign carried out on 1:4 reduced scale bridge piers in order to highlight and investigate shear-type problems. Within the scope of this paper, two specimens types were selected having equal rectangular hollow section (900 × 450 mm², 75 mm thick) but different transverse reinforcement detailing, namely one with a single stirrup per wall (representative of typical bridge construction without seismic design requirements) and another with multiple stirrups, according to Eurocode 8 provisions. Numerical simulations of the experimental results were also conducted aiming at contributing for complete and consistent interpretations of experimental results. Detailed modelling was performed allowing for realistic simulations of the non linear behaviour, particularly suitable when a significant shear component is involved. Therefore, the numerical strategy was based on a detailed 3D FEM discretization using a two-scalar variable damage model for the concrete constitutive law and a suitable cyclic behaviour law for steel bars represented by truss elements. Results have shown that shear deformation and failure modes are well simulated, while providing detailed insight concerning concrete damage pattern and distribution of yielding on the transverse and longitudinal reinforcement.  相似文献   

Functioning of intertidal flats inferred from temporal and spatial dynamics of O<Subscript>2</Subscript>, H<Subscript>2</Subscript>S and pH in their surface sediment   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Stefan Jansen  Eva Walpersdorf  Ursula Werner  Markus Billerbeck  Michael E Böttcher  Dirk de Beer 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(2):317-332

In this article, we describe the dynamics of pH, O₂ and H₂S in the top 5–10 cm of an intertidal flat consisting of permeable sand. These dynamics were measured at the low water line and higher up the flat and during several seasons. Together with pore water nutrient data, the dynamics confirm that two types of transport act as driving forces for the cycling of elements (Billerbeck et al. 2006b): Fast surface dynamics of pore water chemistry occur only during inundation. Thus, they must be driven by hydraulics (tidal and wave action) and are highly dependent on weather conditions. This was demonstrated clearly by quick variation in oxygen penetration depth: Seeps are active at low tide only, indicating that the pore water flow in them is driven by a pressure head developing at low tide. The seeps are fed by slow transport of pore water over long distances in the deeper sediment. In the seeps, high concentrations of degradation products such as nutrients and sulphide were found, showing them to be the outlets of deep-seated degradation processes. The degradation products appear toxic for bioturbating/bioirrigating organisms, as a consequence of which, these were absent in the wider seep areas. These two mechanisms driving advection determine oxygen dynamics in these flats, whereas bioirrigation plays a minor role. The deep circulation causes a characteristic distribution of strongly reduced pore water near the low water line and rather more oxidised sediments in the centre of the flats. The two combined transport phenomena determine the fluxes of solutes and gases from the sediment to the surface water and in this way create specific niches for various types of microorganisms.  相似文献   

Modelling the biogeochemistry of a tidal flat ecosystem with EcoTiM     

Cora?KohlmeierEmail author  Wolfgang?Ebenh?h 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(2):393-415

The ecological tidal model simulates the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphate, and silicate and describes the tidal, diurnal, and annual dynamics of the back barrier area of the island Spiekeroog in the German Bight. The region is characterized by strong tidal currents and extensive tidal flats. It is strongly influenced by the conditions in the southern part of the German Bight. This model study investigates the dependence of the model behavior on the boundary conditions and the forcing. The effect of short- and long-term sea level rise on nutrient and plankton dynamics is analyzed. As the model is set up as semi-Lagrangian with only a coarse approximation of the hydrodynamics, the seasonal and intratidal variability in the biogeochemical cycling can only be reproduced qualitatively. By varying the boundary conditions, the intrinsic dynamics of the back barrier area can be separated from boundary condition effects. This study shows that any agreement between model results and field data cannot be expected without correct boundary conditions. The seasonal variability is of major importance, while higher-frequency variability only plays a minor role.  相似文献   

Effect of wave–bedform feedbacks on the formation of,and grain sorting over shoreface-connected sand ridges     

Nicolette C. Vis-Star  Huib E. de Swart  Daniel Calvete 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(5):731-749

The influence of wave–bedform feedbacks on both the initial formation of shoreface-connected sand ridges (sfcr) and on grain size sorting over these ridges on micro-tidal inner shelves is studied. Also, the effect of sediment sorting on the growth and the migration of sfcr is investigated. This is done by applying a linear stability analysis to an idealized process-based morphodynamic model, which simulates the initial growth of sfcr due to the positive coupling between waves, currents, and an erodible bed. The sediment consists of sand grains with two different sizes. New elements with respect to earlier studies on grain sorting over sfcr are that wave-topography interactions are explicitly accounted for, entrainment of sediment depends on bottom roughness, and transport of suspended sediment involves settling lag effects. The results of the model indicate that sediment sorting causes a reduction of the growth rate and migration speed of sfcr, whereas the wavelength is only slightly affected. In the case where the entrainment of suspended sediment depends on bottom roughness, the coarsest sediment is found in the troughs; otherwise, the finest sediment occurs in the troughs. Compared to previous work, modeled maximum variations in the mean grain size over the topography are in better agreement with field observations. Settling lag effects are important for the damping of high-wavenumber mode instabilities such that a preferred wavelength of the bedforms is obtained.  相似文献   

Study of Metal Distribution in Raw and Screened Swine Manure   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ricardo Luís Radis Steinmetz  Airton Kunz  Valderi Luiz Dressler  Érico Marlon de Moraes Flores  Ayrton Figueiredo Martins 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2009,37(3):239-244

The growth of industrial swine production over the last few years has led to a growth in concern over effluents generated by the activity. Several elements, mainly toxic metals, can be present in swine wastewater and can have a serious environmental impact. It is important, therefore, to know the metal concentration before the discharge of wastewater. In this work the temporal metal distribution in swine manure and its potential reduction using coarse (2 mm) and fine (<0.45 μm) liquid‐solid separation techniques were investigated. In order to do this, different swine manure sample preparation methods for Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr and Zn determination by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP OES) were tested. The acid mixtures used to digest the manure sample significantly affected the metal recovery. Good analyte recoveries were observed with nitric acid/hydrogen peroxide mixtures or nitric acid/perchloric acid mixtures. Sulfuric acid/hydrogen peroxide mixtures produced inconsistent results and poor recoveries, mainly for Ba and Pb. It was observed that metal concentrations in swine manure varied greatly with time, up to one order of magnitude, due to changes in swine production such as feed and animal numbers. Metals concentrations observed in the raw wastewater exceeded Brazilian limits for discharge into water bodies and recommendations for agricultural use. Results obtained from the liquid‐solid separation study showed that metals in the raw swine manure were not removed with coarse screening. However, the major fraction of metals were removed by filtration (0.45 μm), with the exception of Na, K and Sr. Thus, the use of liquid‐solid separation techniques that capture the fine solid fractions (and associated metals) from raw manure can have a favorable impact on the environment and contribute to swine production wastewater treatment.  相似文献   

Geochemistry,chronology and stratigraphy of Neogene tuffs of the Central Andean region     

Christa Placzek  Jay Quade  Jason A. Rech  P.J. Patchett  Carlos Pérez de Arce 《Quaternary Geochronology》2009,4(1):22-36

Tuff layers are vital stratigraphic tools that allow correlations to be made between widely dispersed exposures. Despite their widespread occurrence in the central Andes, tuffs from both natural exposures and sedimentary cores extracted from the region's extensive salars (salt pans) are relatively unstudied. Here we lay the foundation for a tephrostratigraphic framework in the central Andes (14–28°S) by chemically and morphologically characterizing ash shards, and in some cases dating 36 Neogene distal tuffs. These tuffs occur in lacustrine and alluvial deposits from the southern Bolivian Altiplano and adjacent Atacama Desert. All tuffs are calc-akaline rhyolites, consistent with their setting in the Central Andean Volcanic Zone. Five of the older tuffs were ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated and yield an age range of 6.63–0.75 Ma. Organic material associated with tuffs deposited into paleolake sediments, paleowetland deposits, or urine-encrusted rodent middens provide constraints on the age of several Late Pleistocene and Holocene tuffs.These tuffs provide key stratigraphic markers and ages for lake cycles and archeological sites on the Bolivian Altiplano and for assessing rates of surficial processes and archeology in both the Atacama and Altiplano. While modern climate, and consequently questions about geomorphic processes and climate change, differs in the hyperarid Atacama and the semi-arid Altiplano, the most extensive air-fall tuffs covered both regions, placing the Atacama and the Bolivian Altiplano in the same tephrostratigraphic province. For example, the Escara B tuff (～1.85 Ma), can be securely identified in both the Altiplano and Atacama. On the Altiplano, dates from the Escara B and E tuffs securely establish the age of the Escara Formation—representing the oldest expansive lake documented on the Bolivian Altiplano. By contrast, the presence of the Escara B tuff below ～6 m of alluvial sediment at the Blanco Encalado site in the Atacama desert yields information about sedimentation rates in this hyperarid region. Indeed, most tuffs from the Atacama Desert are older than 600,000 years, even though they occur within fluvial terraces immediately adjacent to the alluvial fans that are still active. Most of these geomorphic surfaces in the Atacama also possess well-developed saline soils that, when combined with the radiometric ages of the distal tuffs, suggest slow rates of geomorphic change and exceptional landscape stability for this area during the Quaternary.In contrast, younger tuffs are more abundant in the more recent lake records of the Altiplano. The Chita tuff was deposited at ～15,650 cal yr B.P., during the regressive phase of the region's deepest late Quaternary lake cycle—the “Tauca lake cycle”—which spanned 18.1–14.1 cal yr B.P. Two Holocene tuffs, the Sajsi tuff and the Cruzani Cocha tuff, are widespread. The Sajsi tuff was deposited just before 1700 cal yr B.P., whereas the Cruzani Cocha tuff appears to be mid-Holocene in age and shows some chemical affinities to a Holocene tuff (202B) deposited between 4420 and 5460 cal yr B.P. in a urine-encased rodent midden in the Atacama Desert.  相似文献   

ESR dating of dental enamel from Middle Palaeolithic levels at Lazaret Cave,France     

Véronique Michel  Guanjun Shen  Patricia Valensi  Henry de Lumley 《Quaternary Geochronology》2009,4(3):233-240

ESR dating was carried out on Cervus elaphus tooth enamel samples from the depositional sequence of Lazaret Cave, Nice, France. The deposits contain Anteneandertal hominid fossils associated with abundant lithic artefacts and faunal remains. Three samples from the Mousterian occupations in complex CIII (Fouille d'entrée) yielded early uptake (EU) ages between 108 and 125 ka and linear uptake (LU) ages between 133 and 160 ka. Seven samples from the Acheulian levels in the upper part of the complex CII (Fouille d'entrée and Fouille centre) gave EU ages between 113 and 165 ka and LU ages between 147 and 210 ka, with weighted means at 131 ± 7 and 165 ± 9 ka, respectively. The results of six enamel samples from the lower Acheulian levels at Locus VIII, another place in the cave, were discarded because of their decreasing tendency with depth. The US–ESR combination method was also applied and the CSUS–ESR dates were calculated using the ESR-DATA program. Altogether, the data suggest that the Lazaret Acheulian and Mousterian occupations were rapidly formed during OIS 6.  相似文献   

Atmospheric methane,southern European vegetation and low-mid latitude links on orbital and millennial timescales     

P.C. Tzedakis  H. Pälike  K.H. Roucoux  L. de Abreu 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(3-4):307-317

Pollen records from marine and terrestrial sequences in southern Europe reveal a strong coherence between changes in tree populations and atmospheric methane concentrations over the last 800 thousand years. Variations in the continental hydrological balance provide a link for the observed patterns, leading to concomitant changes in southern European vegetation, and low-latitude wetland extent and methane/volatile organic compound emissions, although additional contributions to the methane budget from extratropical sources are not excluded. Here we propose that the close coupling between low- and mid-latitude hydrological changes reflects shifts in the mean latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which determines the extent to which southern Europe is dominated by subtropical or mid/high-latitude influences. This provides a conceptual framework within which to view vegetation variability in southern Europe on orbital and millennial timescales.  相似文献   

Satellite-based prediction of rainfall interception by tropical forest stands of a human-dominated landscape in Central Sulawesi,Indonesia     

Jens Nieschulze  Stefan Erasmi  Johannes Dietz  Dirk Hölscher 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,364(3-4):227-235

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