The relationships between the tropical Indian Ocean basin(IOB)/dipole(IOD) mode of SST anomalies(SSTAs) and ENSO phase transition during the following year are examined and compared in observations for the period 1958–2008.Both partial correlation analysis and composite analysis show that both the positive(negative) phase of the IOB and IOD(independent of each other) in the tropical Indian Ocean are possible contributors to the El Nio(La Nia) decay and phase transition to La Nia(El Nio) about one year later. However, the influence on ENSO transition induced by the IOB is stronger than that by the IOD. The SSTAs in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the coming year originate from subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Ocean, induced by the IOB and IOD through eastward and upward propagation to meet the surface. During this process, however the contribution of the oceanic channel process between the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans is totally different for the IOB and IOD. For the IOD, the influence of the Indonesian Throughflow transport anomalies could propagate to the eastern Pacific to induce the ENSO transition. For the IOB, the impact of the oceanic channel stays and disappears in the western Pacific without propagation to the eastern Pacific. 相似文献
The 400 km-long Karakax left-lateral strike-slip fault is the westernmost segment of the Altyn Tagh fault. It separates northwestern Tibet to the south from the Tarim basin to the north. The western section of the Karakax fault exhibits clear co-seismic surface ruptures of past large earthquakes. Geomorphic offset measurements from the field and high-resolution Ikonos images along 1.5 km across the Sanshiliyingfang fan and along 55 km of the fault, range from 3 to 28 m, with distinct clusters at 6 ± 2(3), 14 ± 2, 19 ± 2 and 24 ± 3 m. The cluster of the smallest offsets around 6 m (full range from 3 to 10 m) distributed over a minimum length of 55 km, is attributed to the last largest surface rupturing event that testifies of the occurrence of a magnitude Mw 7.4-7.6 earthquake along the Karakax fault. We interpret the other offset clusters as the possible repetition of similarly sized events thus favoring a characteristic slip model for the Karakax fault. In a 3 m-deep trench dug across the active trace of the fault we can identify the main rupture strands of the last and penultimate events. The penultimate event horizon, a silty-sand layer, has been radiocarbon dated at 975-1020 AD (AMS 14C age). It is proposed that large Mw 7.4-7.6 events with co-seismic slip of about 6 m rupture the Karakax fault with a return time of about 900 years implying an average slip-rate of about 6-7 mm/years during the late Holocene. These results suggest that the Karakax fault is the largest left-lateral strike-slip fault at the rim of northwestern Tibet accommodating eastward movement of Tibet due to the India-Eurasia collision. 相似文献
There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, inrw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50°C in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20°C in July and from 0.40°C to 1.10°C in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3–1.00°C. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.