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The sedimentary record of carbonate carbon isotopes (δ13Ccarb) provides one of the best methods for correlating marine strata and understanding the long‐term evolution of the global carbon cycle. This work focuses on the Late Ordovician Guttenberg isotopic carbon excursion, a ca 2·5‰ positive δ13Ccarb excursion that is found in strata globally. Substantial variability in the apparent magnitude and stratigraphic morphology of the Guttenberg excursion at different localities has hampered high‐resolution correlations and led to divergent reconstructions of ocean chemistry and the biogeochemical carbon cycle. This work investigates the magnitude, spatial scale and sources of isotopic variability of the Guttenberg excursion in two sections from Missouri, USA. Centimetre‐scale isotope transects revealed variations in δ13Ccarb and δ18Ocarb greater than 2‰ across individual beds. Linear δ13Ccarb to δ18Ocarb mixing lines, together with petrographic and elemental abundance data, demonstrate that much of the isotopic scatter in single beds is due to mixing of isotopically distinct components. These patterns facilitated objective sample screening to determine the ‘least‐altered’ data. A δ18Ocarb filter based on empirical δ18Ocarb values of well‐preserved carbonate mudstones allowed further sample discrimination. The resulting ‘least‐altered’ δ13Ccarb profile improves the understanding of regional as well as continental‐scale stratigraphic relations in this interval. Correlations with other Laurentian sections strongly suggest that: (i) small‐scale variability in Guttenberg excursion δ13Ccarb values may result in part from local diagenetic overprinting; (ii) peak‐Guttenberg excursion δ13Ccarb values of the Midcontinent are not distinct from their Taconic equivalents; and (iii) no primary continental‐scale spatial gradient in δ13Ccarb (for example, arising from chemically distinct ‘aquafacies’) is required during Guttenberg excursion‐time. This study demonstrates the importance of detailed petrographic and geochemical screening of samples to be used for δ13Ccarb chemostratigraphy and for enhancing understanding of epeiric ocean chemistry.  相似文献   
53.
We compared the estimates of surface drifter trajectories from 1 to 7?days in the equatorial Atlantic over an 18-month period with five eddying ocean general circulation model (OGCM) reanalyses and one observational product. The cumulative distribution of trajectory error was estimated using over 7,000?days of drifter trajectories. The observational product had smaller errors than any of the individual OGCM reanalyses. Three strategies for improving trajectory estimates using the ensemble of five operational ocean analysis and forecasting products were explored: two methods using a multi-model ensemble estimate and also spatial low-pass filtering. The results were insensitive to the method used to create the ensemble estimates, and by most measures, the results were better than the observational product. Comparison of relative skill of the various OGCM reanalyses suggested promising avenues for exploration for further improvements: forcing with higher frequency wind stress and quality control of input data. One of the lowest horizontal resolution OGCMs, with 1/4° longitude horizontal resolution, made the best trajectory estimates. The individual OGCMs were dominated by errors at spatial scales smaller than about 100 to 200?km, i.e., less than the local deformation radius. But buried in those errors were valuable signals that could be retrieved by combining all the OGCM velocity fields to produce a multi-model ensemble-based estimate. This estimate had skill down to spatial scales about 75?km. Results from this study are consistent with previous work showing that ensemble-mean forecast skill is superior to individual forecasts.  相似文献   
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In situ calibration is a proposed strategy for continuous as well as initial calibration of an impact disdrometer. In previous work, a collocated tipping bucket had been utilized to provide a rainfall rate based ~11/3 moment reference to an impact disdrometer’s signal processing system for implementation of adaptive calibration. Using rainfall rate only, transformation of impulse amplitude to a drop volume based on a simple power law was used to define an error surface in the model’s parameter space. By incorporating optical extinction second moment measurements with rainfall rate data, an improved in situ disdrometer calibration algorithm results due to utilization of multiple (two or more) independent moments of the drop size distribution in the error function definition. The resulting improvement in calibration performance can be quantified by detailed examination of the parameter space error surface using simulation as well as real data.  相似文献   
56.
A two-layer theory is used to investigate (1) the steering of upper ocean current pathways by topographically constrained abyssal currents that do not impinge on the bottom topography and (2) its application to upper ocean – topographic coupling via flow instabilities where topographically constrained eddy-driven deep mean flows in turn steer the mean pathways of upper ocean currents and associated fronts. In earlier studies the two-layer theory was applied to ocean models with low vertical resolution (2–6 layers). Here we investigate its relevance to complex ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) with high vertical resolution that are designed to simulate a wide range of ocean processes. The theory can be easily applied to models ranging from idealized to complex OGCMs, provided it is valid for the application. It can also be used in understanding some persistent features seen in observed ocean frontal pathways (over deep water) derived from satellite imagery and other data. To facilitate its application, a more thorough explanation of the theory is presented that emphasizes its range of validity. Three regions of the world ocean are used to investigate its application to eddy-resolving ocean models with high vertical resolution, including one where an assumption of the two-layer theory is violated. Results from the OGCMs with high vertical resolution are compared to those from models with low vertical resolution and to observations. In the Kuroshio region upper ocean – topographic coupling via flow instabilities and a modest seamount complex are used to explain the observed northward mean meander east of Japan where the Kuroshio separates from the coast. The Japan/East Sea (JES) is used to demonstrate the impact of upper ocean – topographic coupling in a relatively weak flow regime. East of South Island, New Zealand, the Southland Current is an observed western boundary current that flows in a direction counter to the demands of Sverdrup flow and counter to the direction simulated in nonlinear global flat bottom and reduced gravity models. A model with high vertical resolution (and topography extending through any number of layers) and a model with low vertical resolution (and vertically compressed but otherwise realistic topography confined to the lowest layer) both simulate a Southland Current in the observed direction with dynamics depending on the configuration of the regional seafloor. However, the dynamics of these simulations are very different because the Campbell Plateau and Chatham Rise east and southeast of New Zealand are rare features of the world ocean where the topography intrudes into the stratified water column over a relatively broad area but lies deeper than the nominal 200 m depth of the continental shelf break, violating a limitation of the two-layer theory. Observations confirm the results from the high vertical resolution model. Overall, the model simulations show increasingly widespread upper ocean – topographic coupling via flow instabilities as the horizontal resolution of the ocean models is increased, but fine resolution of mesoscale variability and the associated flow instabilities are required to obtain sufficient coupling. As a result, this type of coupling is critical in distinguishing between eddy-resolving and eddy-permitting ocean models in regions where it occurs.  相似文献   
57.
A 2.5 × 2.5° gridded summer (April–September) drought reconstruction over the larger Mediterranean land area (32.5°/47.5°N, 10°W/50°E; 152 grid points) is described, based on a network of 165 tree-ring series. The drought index used is the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the period considered is 1500–2000. The reconstruction technique combines an analogue technique for the estimation of missing tree-ring data with an artificial neural network for optimal non-linear calibration, including a bootstrap error assessment. Tests were carried out on the various sources of error in the reconstructions. Errors related to the temporal variations of the number of proxies were tested by comparing four reconstructions calibrated with four different sized regressor datasets, representing the decrease in the number of available proxies over time. Errors related to the heterogeneous spatial density of predictors were tested using pseudo-proxies, provided by the global climate model ECHO-G. Finally the errors related to the imperfect climate signal recorded by tree-ring series were tested by adding white noise to the pseudo-proxies. Reconstructions pass standard cross-validation tests. Nevertheless tests using pseudo-proxies show that the reconstructions are less good in areas where proxies are rare, but that the average reconstruction curve is robust. Finally, the noise added to proxies, which is by definition a high frequency component, has a major effect on the low frequency signal, but not on the medium frequencies. The comparison of the low frequency trends of our mean reconstruction and the GCM simulation indicates that the detrending method used is able to preserve the long-term variations of reconstructed PDSI. The results also highlight similar multi-decadal PDSI variations in the central and western parts of the Mediterranean basin and less clear low frequency changes in the east. The sixteenth and the first part of the seventeenth centuries are characterized by marked dry episodes in the west similar to those observed in the end of the twentieth century. In contrast, the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries (Little Ice Age) are characterized by dominant wet periods. In the eastern part of the Mediterranean basin the observed strong drought period of the end of the twentieth century seems to be the strongest of the last 500 years.  相似文献   
58.
A technique to estimate mass erosion rate of surface soil during landing of the Apollo Lunar Module (LM) and total mass ejected due to the rocket plume interaction is proposed and tested. The erosion rate is proportional to the product of the second moment of the lofted particle size distribution N(D), and third moment of the normalized soil size distribution S(D), divided by the integral of S(D)?D2/v(D), where D is particle diameter and v(D) is the vertical component of particle velocity. The second moment of N(D) is estimated by optical extinction analysis of the Apollo cockpit video. Because of the similarity between mass erosion rate of soil as measured by optical extinction and rainfall rate as measured by radar reflectivity, traditional NWS radar/rainfall correlation methodology can be applied to the lunar soil case where various S(D) models are assumed corresponding to specific lunar sites.  相似文献   
59.
Latitudinal movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), analogous to its present-day seasonal shifts, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type variability both potentially impacted rainfall changes at the millennial timescale during the last glacial period. In this study we compare tropical Pacific sedimentary records of paleoprecipitation to decipher which climate mechanism was responsible for the past rainfall changes. We find that latitudinal movements of the ITCZ are consistent with the observed rainfall patterns, challenging the ENSO hypothesis for explaining the rapid rainfall changes at low latitudes. The ITCZ-related mechanism appears to reflect large-scale atmospheric rearrangements over the tropical belt, with a pronounced Heinrich-Dansgaard/Oeschger signature. This observation is coherent with the simulated tropical rainfall anomalies induced by a weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in modeling experiments.  相似文献   
60.
The geology of the “Vence” landslide (0.8 million m3, south-eastern France) explains the complex hydrology of the site which plays a key role in the destabilization of the slope (water circulation within the sliding mass, fluid exchanges between superficial layers and deep karstic aquifer through faults). To understand fluid circulations within the unstable slope, a 9.5-year multi-parametric survey was set up. The survey combines electrical resistivity tomography (daily acquisition), rainfall records since 2006 and boreholes monitoring groundwater level since 2009. The objective of this work is to present an automated clustering analysis applied to the ERT data enabled to locate geological units displaying distinct hydrogeological behaviours. Clustering analysis, based on a hierarchical ascendant classification (HAC), helped to simplify the ERT section isolating three groups of apparent resistivity values. Comparing the variations of these clusters’ behaviours in time to the variations of the groundwater levels on site, we identified hydrogeological units. The role of the faults cutting the substratum is thereby highlighted. It is the simultaneous analysis of such a large real dataset that allowed obtaining robust results characteristic of the long-term behaviour of the natural hydrogeological system. This type of qualitative information on the variability of the slope hydrogeological behaviour both spatially and temporally is crucial to help improving the conversion of resistivity data into hydrologic quantities. Indeed, the definition of petrophysical models to convert ERT measurements into hydrological measurements should be site-specific and take into account the spatial and temporal variability of the medium. In this work, we show a method that can also help to focus on the areas in depth that have different levels of permeability and observe how the saturation degree evolves in time. This can be used to optimize the location of additional instrumentation (such as temperature probes and chemical sampling) and, thus, help in the prevention of the risk in such problematic areas.  相似文献   
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