On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources     

Charles A. Stock  Michael A. Alexander  Nicholas A. Bond  Keith M. Brander  William W.L. Cheung  Enrique N. Curchitser  Thomas L. Delworth  John P. Dunne  Stephen M. Griffies  Melissa A. Haltuch  Jonathan A. Hare  Anne B. Hollowed  Patrick Lehodey  Simon A. Levin  Jason S. Link  Kenneth A. Rose  Ryan R. Rykaczewski  Jorge L. Sarmiento  Ronald J. Stouffer  Franklin B. Schwing  Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.  相似文献   

The study of metal contamination in urban topsoils of Mexico City using GIS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

María Teresa Rodríguez-Salazar  Ofelia Morton-Bermea  Elizabeth Hernández-Álvarez  Rufino Lozano  Victor Tapia-Cruz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(5):899-905

This research presents and discusses information concerning the spatial distribution of heavy metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Ba, Co, Cr, Ni and V) in the urban environments of Mexico City using geographical information system and statistical analysis. Superficial soil samples (n = 146) were analyzed. The highest contamination indices were found in the north and center zone of the metropolitan area. In contrast, the surrounding rural fields show a lower impact grade. The higher concentrations of Pb, Cu, Zn and Ba were observed as being related to high vehicular traffic, nevertheless other elements such as Co, Cr, Ni and V do not show anthropogenic influence and their content can be attributed to the parental rock. The results are compared with previous surveys carried out in 2003 in order to evaluate temporal deposition trends. No changes were found on reported concentrations except for Cu and Zn, whose concentration has increased in later years. The results suggest that spatial distribution analysis and results in comparison with previous studies could be useful for the management and sustainable development of the metropolitan area of Mexico City.  相似文献   

GROUND THERMAL CONDITIONS AT CHACHANI VOLCANO,SOUTHERN PERU     

NURIA ANDRÉS  DAVID PALACIOS  JOSE ÚBEDA  JESÚS ALCALÁ 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2011,93(3):151-162

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Depositional processes on oceanic island shelves – Evidence from storm‐generated Neogene deposits from the mid‐North Atlantic     

Ricardo P. Meireles  Rui Quartau  Ricardo S. Ramalho  Ana C. Rebelo  José Madeira  Vittorio Zanon  Sérgio P. Ávila 《Sedimentology》2013,60(7):1769-1785

Oceanic islands – such as the Azores in the mid‐North Atlantic – are periodically exposed to large storms that often remobilize and transport marine sediments along coastlines, and into deeper environments. Such disruptive events create deposits – denominated tempestites – whose characteristics reflect the highly dynamic environment in which they were formed. Tempestites from oceanic islands, however, are seldom described in the literature and little is known about storm‐related sediment dynamics affecting oceanic island shelves. Therefore, the geological record of tempestite deposits at oceanic islands can provide invaluable information on the processes of sediment remobilization, transport and deposition taking place on insular shelves during and after major storms. In Santa Maria Island (Azores), a sequence of Neogene tempestite deposits was incorporated in the island edifice by the ongoing volcanic activity (thus preserved) and later exposed through uplift and erosion. Because it was overlain by a contemporary coastal lava delta, the water depth at the time of deposition could be inferred, constituting an excellent case‐study to gain insight on the still enigmatic processes of insular shelf deposition. Sedimentological, palaeontological, petrographic and palaeo‐water depth information allowed the reconstruction of the depositional environment of these sediments. The sequence typifies the characteristics of a tempestite (or successive tempestites) formed at ca 50 m depth, in a steep, energetic open insular shelf, and with evidence for massive sediment remobilization from the nearshore to the middle or outer shelf. The authors claim that cross‐shelf transport induced by storm events is the main process of sediment deposition acting on steep and narrow shelves subjected to high‐energetic environments, such as the insular shelves of open‐sea volcanic islands.  相似文献   

Intra-oceanic settings of the western Mexico Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous arc sequences. Implications for the Pacific-Tethys geodynamic relationships during the Cretaceous     

Marc Tardy  Henriette Lapierre  Jean-Louis Bourdier  Christian Couloni  R. Juventino Martinezr  H. Enrique Ortiz 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(3):174-185

Abstract

The Guerrero suspect terrane composed of Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sequences, extends from Baja California up to Acapulco and is considered to be coeval with the Late Mesozoic igneous and sedimentary arc sequences of the Greater Antilles, Venezuela and Western Cordillera of Colombia. New geological, petrological and geochemical data from central and southern Mexico, led us to propose a new model for the building of the Alisitos-Teloloapan arc. This arc, partly built on the Pacific oceanic lithosphere and partly on continental fragments, could be related to the subduction of an oceanic basin - the Arperos basin - under the Paleo-Pacific plate. This subduction was dipping southwest.

At the beginning of the magmatic activity of the oceanic segment of this arc, depleted tholeiitic basalts were emitted in a submarine environnement below the CCD. While subduction was going on, the arc magmas evolved from LREE depleted tholeiites to slightly LREE enriched tholeiites and then, to calc-alkaline basalts and andesites enriched in LREE and HFSE. Concurrently, the arc sedimentary environment changed from deep oceanic to neritic with the deposition of Aptian-Albian reefal limestones, at the end of the arc building. In the continent-based segment, the arc magmas are exclusively differentiated calc-alkaline suites depleted in HREE and Y, formed of predominantly siliceous lavas and pyroclastic rocks, emitted in a sub-aerial or shallow marine environment.

Thus, taking into account this above mentioned model, the Cretaceous volcanic series, accreted to the margins of cratonal America, in Colombia, Venezuela, Greater Antilles and Mexico, could be related to the same west-south-west dipping subduction of oceanic basins, fringing the North and South American continental cratons and connected directly with the inter-American Tethys. While the subduction was proceeding, this magmatic arc drifted towards the North and South American cratons and finally, collided with the continental margins at different periods during the Cretaceous.  相似文献   

Application of HF radar currents to oil spill modelling     

Abascal AJ  Castanedo S  Medina R  Losada IJ  Alvarez-Fanjul E 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(2):238-248

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.  相似文献   

Terrestrial photogrammetric techniques applied to the control of a parabolic dune in the Liencres dune system,Cantabria (Spain)     

Carlos Arteaga  José Juan de Sanjosé  Enrique Serrano 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(14):2201-2210

The spatial–temporal variations of a dune system can be determined by using diverse ‘geomatic’ methodologies: geodesy, global positioning system (GPS) and photogrammetry. In the case of the Liencres dune system, a study will be carried out using the ‘close‐range’ photogrammetry technique and the topography technique (total station and GPS). In order to determine the dynamic of the dune system it is necessary to repeat the process of study after a specific interval of time. For this reason, three dimensional data should be available in two different time periods, between which the displacement of the object of analysis (the front portion of the dune) will be significant enough to evaluate its magnitude. This work analyses the viability of photogrammetry for the determination of the spatial–temporal changes of a coastal parabolic dune. Two factors have been analysed: first, the comparison of the photogrammetric results with the results obtained from topographic methods (total station and GPS), and second, the quantification of the displacement of the dune system. The analysis of the correspondence between the movement of different parts of the dune and the influence of the intensity and direction of the prevailing wind in the area is also desired. The dune advanced 12·15 ± 0·06 m (an average of 8·5 m/yr), and the partial implications for the dynamic of human modified processes on the natural park have been established. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A note on classical damping matrices,Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 2008; 37:615–626     

J. Enrique Luco 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(15):1805-1809

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The fissure swarm of the Askja volcanic system along the divergent plate boundary of N Iceland   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir  Páll Einarsson  Haraldur Sigurdsson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(9):961-975

Divergent plate boundaries, such as the one crossing Iceland, are characterized by a high density of subparallel volcanic fissures and tectonic fractures, collectively termed rift zones, or fissure swarms when extending from a specific volcano. Volcanic fissures and tectonic fractures in the fissure swarms are formed during rifting events, when magma intrudes fractures to form dikes and even feeds fissure eruptions. We mapped volcanic fissures and tectonic fractures in a part of the divergent plate boundary in northern Iceland. The study area is ~1,800 km², located within and north of the Askja central volcano. The style of fractures changes with distance from Askja. Close to Askja the swarm is dominated by eruptive fissures. The proportion of tectonic fractures gets larger with distance from Askja. This may indicate that magma pressure is generally higher in dikes close to Askja than farther away from it. Volcanic fissures and tectonic fractures are either oriented away from or concentric with the 3–4 identified calderas in Askja. The average azimuth of fissures and fractures in the area deviates significantly from the azimuth perpendicular to the direction of plate velocity. As this deviation decreases gradually northward, we suggest that the effect of the triple junction of the North American, Eurasian and the Hreppar microplate is a likely cause for this deviation. Shallow, tectonic earthquakes in the vicinity of Askja are often located in a relatively unfractured area between the fissure swarms of Askja and Kverkfjöll. These earthquakes are associated with strike-slip faulting according to fault plane solutions. We suggest that the latest magma intrusions into either the Askja or the Kverkfjöll fissure swarms rotated the maximum stress axis from being vertical to horizontal, causing the formation of strike-slip faults instead of the dilatational fractures related to the fissure swarms. The activity in different parts of the Askja fissure swarm is uneven in time and switches between subswarms, as shown by a fissure swarm that is exposed in an early Holocene lava NW of Herðubreið but disappears under a younger (3500–4500 BP) lava flow. We suggest that the location of inflation centres in Askja central volcano controls into which part of the Askja fissure swarm a dike propagates. The size and amount of fractures in the Kollóttadyngja lava shield decrease with increasing elevation. We suggest that this occurred as the depth to the propagating dike(s) was greater under central Kollóttadyngja than under its flanks, due to topography.  相似文献   

Interplay of orbital forcing and tectonic pulses in the Cambrian Iberian platform, NE Spain     

J. J. Álvaro  E. Vennin  A. Muñoz  B. Sánchez-Valverde  J. L. Ojeda 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2000,89(2):366-376

The stratigraphy of carbonate/shale couplets, cycles and cycle-stacking patterns in a Cambrian shallow water platform (Iberian Chains, NE Spain) are related to sea-level changes driven by orbital forcing and by tectonic pulses. The interplay of both effects can be discriminated in the Iberian fault-controlled platform, in which the tectonic activity can be analysed by accurate and detailed biostratigraphic correlations based on trilobite zonation. The stratigraphic hierarchy of rhythmically interbedded limestones and shales, in two coeval but structurally separated geodynamic settings, yields cycle ratios of 1.44 :1. This ratio is supported by time thickness and spectral analysis, which is based on a graphic method of analysis: the Map of Grey Lines. The cycle ratio seems to be evidence for orbital forcing by obliquity and precession cycles predicted for early Paleozoic time. Carbonate/shale couplets, the smallest rhythmic units recognisable in the field, represent short-term, periodic fluctuations in supply of terrigenous sediments and carbonate productivity of uncertain origin, which could be associated with one of several harmonics of the former orbital cycles. The pulsating tectonic activity was approximated by using a quantitative analysis of tectonically induced subsidence (Shaw method). Recurrence frequencies of tectonic pulses were estimated and dated by biostratigraphy. As a result, tectonic disturbances in the Cambrian Iberian platform show an episodic periodicity comparable to that of orbital eccentricity cycles, which could mask their recognition. Received: 15 November 1999 / Accepted: 9 February 2000  相似文献