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991.
992.
Cycloids, arcuate features observed on Europa’s surface, have been interpreted as tensile cracks that form in response to diurnal tidal stress caused by Europa’s orbital eccentricity. Stress from non-synchronous rotation may also contribute to tidal stress, and its influence on cycloid shapes has been investigated as well. Obliquity, fast precession, and physical libration would contribute to tidal stress but have often been neglected because they were expected to be negligibly small. However, more sophisticated analyses that include the influence of Jupiter’s other large satellites and the state of Europa’s interior indicate that perhaps these rotational parameters are large enough to alter the tidal stress field and the formation of tidally-driven fractures. We test tidal models that include obliquity, fast precession, stress due to non-synchronous rotation, and physical libration by comparing how well each model reproduces observed cycloids. To do this, we have designed and implemented an automated parameter-searching algorithm that relies on a quantitative measure of fit quality, which we use to identify the best fits to observed cycloids. We then apply statistical techniques to determine the tidal model best supported by the data. By incorporating obliquity, fits to observed southern hemisphere cycloids improve, and we can reproduce equatorial and equator-crossing cycloids. Furthermore, we find that obliquity plus physical libration is the tidal model best supported by the data. With this model, the obliquities range from 0.32° to 1.35°. The libration amplitudes are 0.72–2.44°, and the libration phases are −6.04° to 17.72° with one outlier at 84.5°. The variability in obliquity is expected if Europa’s ice shell is mechanically decoupled from the interior, and the libration amplitudes are plausible in the presence of a subsurface ocean. Indeed, the presence of a decoupling ocean may result in feedbacks that cause all of these rotational parameters to become time-variable.  相似文献   
993.
The basic functionality and performance of a new Schlumberger active wireline heave compensation system on the JOIDES Resolution was evaluated during the sea trial and a 3-year period of the IODP Phase II operations. A suite of software programs was developed to enable real-time monitoring of the dynamics of logging tools, and assess the efficiency of wireline heave compensation during downhole operations. The evaluation of the system effectiveness was performed under normal logging conditions as well as during stationary tests. Logging data were analyzed for their overall quality and repeatability, and to assess the reliability of high-resolution data such as formation microscanner (FMS) electrical images. This revealed that the system reduces 65–80 % of displacement or 88–98 % variance of downhole tool motion in stationary mode under heave conditions of ±0.2–1.5 m and water depths of 300–4,500 m in open holes. Under similar water/heave conditions, the compensator system reduces tool displacement by 50–60 %, or 75–84 % variance in downhole tool motion during normal logging operations. Such compensation efficiency (CE) is comparable to previous compensation systems, but using advanced and upgradeable technologies, and provides 50–85 % heave motion and heave variance attenuation. Moreover, logging down/up at low speeds (300–600 m/h) reduces the system’s CE values by 15–20 %, and logging down at higher speeds (1,000–1,200 m/h) eliminates CE values by 55–65 %. Considering the high quality of the logging data collected, it is concluded that the new system can provide an improved level of compensation over previous systems. Also, if practically feasible, future integration of downhole cable dynamics as an input feedback into the current system could further improve its compensation efficiency during logging operations.  相似文献   
994.
A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
As the world becomes wealthier over time, inflation-adjusted insured damages from natural disasters go up as well. This article analyzes whether there is still a significant upward trend once insured natural disaster loss has been normalized. By scaling up loss from past disasters, normalization adjusts for the fact that a hazard event of equal strength will typically cause more damage nowadays than in past years because of wealth accumulation over time. A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters is not only of interest to the insurance industry, but can potentially be useful for attempts at detecting whether there has been an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of natural hazards, whether caused by natural climate variability or anthropogenic climate change. We analyze trends at the global level over the period 1990 to 2008, over the period 1980 to 2008 for West Germany and 1973 to 2008 for the United States. We find no significant trends at the global level, but we detect statistically significant upward trends in normalized insured losses from all non-geophysical disasters as well as from certain specific disaster types in the United States and West Germany.  相似文献   
995.
This paper presents an assessment of the seasonal prediction skill of current global circulation models, with a focus on the two-meter air temperature and precipitation over the Southeast United States. The model seasonal hindcasts are analyzed using measures of potential predictability, anomaly correlation, Brier skill score, and Gerrity skill score. The systematic differences in prediction skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere models versus models using prescribed (either observed or predicted) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are documented. It is found that the predictability and the hindcast skill of the models vary seasonally and spatially. The largest potential predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) of precipitation anywhere in the United States is found in the Southeast in the spring and winter seasons. The maxima in the potential predictability of two-meter air temperature, however, reside outside the Southeast in all seasons. The largest deterministic hindcast skill over the Southeast is found in wintertime precipitation. At the same time, the boreal winter two-meter air temperature hindcasts have the smallest skill. The large wintertime precipitation skill, the lack of corresponding two-meter air temperature hindcast skill, and a lack of precipitation skill in any other season are features common to all three types of models (atmospheric models forced with observed SSTs, atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs, and coupled ocean–atmosphere models). Atmospheric models with observed SST forcing demonstrate a moderate skill in hindcasting spring-and summertime two-meter air temperature anomalies, whereas coupled models and atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs lack similar skill. Probabilistic and categorical hindcasts mirror the deterministic findings, i.e., there is very high skill for winter precipitation and none for summer precipitation. When skillful, the models are conservative, such that low-probability hindcasts tend to be overestimates, whereas high-probability hindcasts tend to be underestimates.  相似文献   
996.
Here we compare new experimental studies with theoretical predictions of equilibrium iron isotopic fractionation among aqueous ferric chloride complexes (Fe(H2O)63+, FeCl(H2O)52+, FeCl2(H2O)4+, FeCl3 (H2O)3, and FeCl4-), using the Fe-Cl-H2O system as a simple, easily-modeled example of the larger variety of iron-ligand compounds, such as chlorides, sulfides, simple organic acids, and siderophores. Isotopic fractionation (56Fe/54Fe) among naturally occuring iron-bearing species at Earth surface temperatures (up to ∼3‰) is usually attributed to redox effects in the environment. However, theoretical modeling of reduced isotopic partition functions among iron-bearing species in solution also predicts fractionations of similar magnitude due to non-redox changes in speciation (i.e., ligand bond strength and coordination number). In the present study, fractionations are measured in a series of low pH ([H+] = 5 M) solutions of ferric chloride (total Fe = 0.0749 mol/L) at chlorinities ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 mol/L. Advantage is taken of the unique solubility of FeCl4- in immiscible diethyl ether to create a separate spectator phase, used to monitor changing fractionation in the aqueous solution. Δ56Feaq-eth = δ56Fe (total Fe remaining in aqueous phase)−δ56Fe (FeCl4- in ether phase) is determined for each solution via MC-ICPMS analysis.Both experiments and theoretical calculations of Δ56Feaq-eth show a downward trend with increasing chlorinity: Δ56Feaq-eth is greatest at low chlorinity, where FeCl2(H2O)4+ is the dominant species, and smallest at high chlorinity where FeCl3(H2O)3 is dominant. The experimental Δ56Feaq-eth ranges from 0.8‰ at [Cl-] = 0.5 M to 0.0‰ at [Cl-] = 5.0 M, a decrease in aqueous-ether fractionation of 0.8‰. This is very close to the theoretically predicted decreases in Δ56Feaq-eth, which range from 1.0 to 0.7‰, depending on the ab initio model.The rate of isotopic exchange and attainment of equilibrium are shown using spiked reversal experiments in conjunction with the two-phase aqueous-ether system. Equilibrium under the experimental conditions is established within 30 min.The general agreement between theoretical predictions and experimental results points to substantial equilibrium isotopic fractionation among aqueous ferric chloride complexes and a decrease in 56Fe/54Fe as the Cl-/Fe3+ ion ratio increases. The effects on isotopic fractionation shown by the modeling of this simple iron-ligand system imply that ligands present in an aqueous environment are potentially important drivers of fractionation, are indicative of possible fractionation effects due to other speciation effects (such as iron-sulfide systems or iron bonding with organic ligands), and must be considered when interpreting iron isotope fractionation in the geological record.  相似文献   
997.
The Copper Creek mining district, southeastern Arizona, contains more than 500 mineralized breccia pipes, buried porphyry-style, copper-bearing stockworks, and distal lead–silver veins. The breccia pipes are hosted by the Copper Creek Granodiorite and the Glory Hole volcanic rocks. The unexposed Mammoth breccia pipe, solely recognized by drilling, has a vertical extent of 800 m and a maximum width of 180 m. The pipe consists of angular clasts of granodiorite cemented by quartz, chalcopyrite, bornite, anhydrite, and calcite. Biotite 40Ar/39Ar dates suggest a minimum age of 61.5 ± 0.7 Ma for the host Copper Creek Granodiorite and 40Ar/39Ar dates on hydrothermal sericite indicate an age of 61.0 ± 0.5 Ma for copper mineralization. Fluid inclusion studies suggest that a supercritical fluid with a salinity of approximately 10 wt.% NaCl equiv. condensed to a dilute aqueous vapor (1–2.8 wt.% NaCl equiv.) and a hypersaline brine (33.4–35.1 wt.% NaCl equiv.). Minimum trapping temperatures are 375°C and trapping depths are estimated at 2 km. Sulfur isotope fractionation of cogenetic anhydrite and chalcopyrite yields a temperature of mineralization of 469 ± 25°C. Calculated oxygen and hydrogen isotope values for fluids in equilibrium with quartz and sericite range from 10.2‰ to 13.4‰ and −60‰ to −39‰, respectively, suggesting that the mineralizing fluid was dominantly magmatic. Evidence from the stable isotope and fluid inclusion analyses suggests that the fluids responsible for Cu mineralization within the Mammoth breccia pipe exsolved from a gray porphyry phase found at the base of the breccia pipe.  相似文献   
998.
Microfossils from the Ediacaran Weng’an Phosphate Member of the Doushantuo Formation (Guizhou Province, southern China) have received widespread attention. The Doushantuo, which overlies the glacial deposits of the Nantuo Formation, was deposited following the Marinoan glaciation, the last extensive glaciation of Snowball Earth. Radiometric age dating indicates that the Doushantuo is older than 580 my, and hence that these microfossils are older than the Ediacara Biota. However, the diversity represented by these fossils has yet to be fully documented. A recent technological approach that has increasingly been used to image fossils, propagation phase contrast synchrotron X-ray microtomography, has allowed non-destructive study of both exterior and interior features of a variety of Doushantuo microfossils from the gray facies of the Weng’an Phosphate Member, cropping out along the axis of the Mt. Beidou anticline. Studies of Doushantuo embryos demonstrate the existence of a large suite of modern embryonic features, including macromeres and micromeres, cell lineage, polar lobes, compacted epithelia, equal and unequal cleavage, blastulation and gastrulation, and chorionic protection. Because embryos such as those here studied provide only a limited amount of phylogenetic information, and because adult metazoans of the types that produced these embryos have yet to be discovered in Doushantuo-age rocks, these fossilized embryonic forms can at present be assigned only to the various superclades represented amongst living Metazoa. The diversity of the embryos here studied suggests that the metazoan fauna of the Doushantuo may well have included animals of poriferan, cnidarian, and both protostomial (representatives possibly of basal protostome lineages) and deuterostomial affinity. If this interpretation is correct, it would then follow that the last common ancestor of the bilaterian metazoan lineage, as well as the last common ancestor of sponges, cnidarians and bilaterians, pre-dated deposition of the Doushantuo strata.  相似文献   
999.
New U–Pb Zircon SHRIMP ages of 1091 ± 7.1 Ma and 1093.1 ± 5.8 Ma have been determined for two discrete phases of the Munster Suite. The Munster Suite is a calc-alkaline mafic to intermediate suite of intrusive igneous rocks that form part of the southern-most tectonic Terrane of the Mesoproterozoic-aged Natal Metamorphic Belt. Previously published geochemical data indicate that the discrete phases of the Suite are consanguineous and that these rocks originated within an oceanic island arc environment. The new age determinations now show that the different phases are also coeval. Moreover, the ages also indicate that the intrusions were, within statistical error, coeval with S-type granites within the Terrane. This is interpreted to indicate that magmatic underplating provided both the magma by way of a number of progressively more evolved pulses to produce the Munster Suite, as well as the heat necessary for crustal melting to produce the S-type granites within an island arc environment. Therefore, these new age determinations indicate a period of crustal growth at circa 1090 Ma. This moreover, is a maximum constraint on the age of the northward-verging structures within the Margate Terrane.  相似文献   
1000.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Status and Trends Mussel Watch Program sampled the largest oysters in nearly every major US coastal lagoon and estuary in the Gulf of Mexico once during the winter from 1986 to 2010. This contribution examines trends in the principal oyster disease in the Gulf of Mexico, Dermo, caused by Perkinsus marinus, and some related population dynamic characteristics for its host, Crassostrea virginica. During the 1986–2000 period, P. marinus prevalence and infection intensity and oyster population dynamics followed the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, responding to variations in salinity caused by variations in rainfall and freshwater inflow. The ENSO signal in the oyster population effectively ceased circa 2002. Beginning around this time, wintertime P. marinus prevalence and weighted prevalence began a decadal decline, as did the length of the largest oysters and the fraction of these largest animals that were female. The trends in Dermo disease, oyster length, and oyster sex ratio are all consistent with the following hypothesis: increasing temperature during the 2000s resulted in an increase in P. marinus infection intensity sufficient to increase the mortality rate in late summer and fall in the larger animals. This simultaneously reduced Dermo prevalence and infection intensity in the winter at the time of sampling and also resulted in the decline in the length of the largest animals targeted by Mussel Watch. Coincident with the decline in length is the expected decline in the fraction female, such that the percent female in the largest animals dropped to ≤50 % throughout much of the Gulf of Mexico. The decline in length leading to fewer large animals reproducing and the loss of females are predicted to have reduced oyster population reproductive capacity substantially during the 2000s. The early 60 % of the Mussel Watch time series took place during a period of negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices. The AMO moved into positive territory circa 2000. A positive AMO index is consistent with observed warmer water temperatures, and increased water temperature is consistent with an increase in Dermo-induced mortality.  相似文献   
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