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51.
Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal
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Claudia Carvalho‐Santos João Pedro Nunes António T. Monteiro Lars Hein João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738
The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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José Tasso Felix Guimarães Prafulla Kumar Sahoo Mariana Maha Jana Costa De Figueiredo Karen da Silva Lopes Markus Gastauer Silvio Junio Ramos Cecilio Frois Caldeira Pedro Walfir M. Souza-Filho Luiza Santos Reis Marcio Sousa Da Silva Paulo Rogenes Pontes Renato Oliveira Da Silva Junior Tarcísio Magevski Rodrigues 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(2):255-272
This study addresses paleoclimate influences in a southern Amazonia ecotone based on multiproxy records from lakes of the Carajás region during the last 45k cal a bp. Wet and cool environmental conditions marked the initial deposition in shallow depressions with detrital sediments and high weathering rates until 40k cal a bp. Concomitantly, forest and C3 canga plants, along with cool-adapted taxa, developed; however, short drier episodes enabled expansion of C4 plants and diagenetic formation of siderite. A massive event of siderite formation occurred approximately 30k cal a bp under strong drier conditions. Afterwards, wet and cool environmental conditions returned and persisted until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM was marked by lake-level lowstands and subaerial exposure. The transition from the LGM to the Holocene is marked by the onset of oscillations in temperature and humidity, with an expansion of forest and canga plants. Cool taxa were present for the last time in the Carajás region ~ 9.5–9k cal a bp. After 10k cal a bp , shallow lakes became upland swamps due to natural infilling processes, but the current vegetation types and structures of the plateaus were acquired only after 3k cal a bp under wetter climatic conditions. 相似文献
53.
Full-Scale Spectrum of Boundary-Layer Winds 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
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Anabele Lindner Cira Souza Pitombo Samille Santos Rocha José Alberto Quintanilha 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):245-254
Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values. 相似文献
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Ontogenic variation and effect of collection procedure on leaf biomechanical properties of Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile
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Carmen B. de los Santos Bárbara Vicencio‐Rammsy Gilles Lepoint François Remy Tjeerd J. Bouma Sylvie Gobert 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):750-759
Leaf mechanical traits are important to understand how aquatic plants fracture and deform when subjected to abiotic (currents or waves) or biotic (herbivory attack) mechanical forces. The likely occurrence of variation during leaf ontogeny in these traits may thus have implications for hydrodynamic performance and vulnerability to herbivory damage, and may be associated with changes in morphologic and chemical traits. Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, consist of shoot bundles holding several leaves with different developmental stages, in which outer older leaves protect inner younger leaves. In this study we examined the long‐lived seagrass Posidonia oceanica to determine ontogenic variation in mechanical traits across leaf position within a shoot, representing different developmental stages. Moreover, we investigated whether or not the collection procedure (classical uprooted shoot versus non‐destructive shoot method: cutting the shoot without a portion of rhizome) and time span after collection influence mechanical measurements. Neither collection procedure nor time elapsed within 48 h of collection affected measurements of leaf biomechanical traits when seagrass shoots were kept moist in dark cool conditions. Ontogenic variation in mechanical traits in P. oceanica leaves over intermediate and adult developmental stages was observed: leaves weakened and lost stiffness with aging, while mid‐aged leaves (the longest and thickest ones) were able to withstand higher breaking forces. In addition, younger leaves had higher nitrogen content and lower fiber content than older leaves. The observed patterns may explain fine‐scale within‐shoot ecological processes of leaves at different developmental stages, such as leaf shedding and herbivory consumption in P. oceanica. 相似文献
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