Implementing the Kyoto Protocol without Russia     

Erik Haites  Farhana Yamin  Odile Blanchard  Claudia Kemfert 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):143-152

Abstract

This paper examines implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russia. It concludes that implementation without Russia is possible, although it requires political will on the part of the countries that wish to proceed with the Protocol. It would lead to higher compliance costs for Annex B buyer regions, but other regions, except Russia, would benefit financially. Russia would forego revenue of at least $20 billion for the first commitment period. Implementation without Russia could improve the environmental performance of the Protocol. It would reduce reliance on Annex B sinks, use of surplus assigned amount units (AAUs) for compliance, and the quantity of Kyoto units banked for subsequent commitment periods. Actual emissions by Kyoto Protocol Parties would fall, but the reduction may be offset by leakage to the US and Russia.  相似文献   

Pre-processing of a sample of multi-scene and multi-date Landsat imagery used to monitor forest cover changes over the tropics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Catherine BodartHugh Eva  René Beuchle  Rastislav RašiDario Simonetti  Hans-Jürgen StibigAndreas Brink  Erik LindquistFrédéric Achard 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2011,66(5):555-563

In support to the Remote Sensing Survey of the global Forest Resource Assessment 2010, the TREES-3 project has processed more than 12,000 Landsat TM and ETM+ data subsets systematically distributed over the tropics. The project aims at deriving area estimates of tropical forest cover change for the periods 1990-2000-2005. The paper presents the pre-processing steps applied in an operational and robust manner to this large amount of multi-date and multi-scene imagery: conversion to top-of-atmosphere reflectance, cloud and cloud shadow detection, haze correction and image radiometric normalization. The results show that the haze correction algorithm has improved the visual appearance of the image and significantly corrected the digital numbers for Landsat visible bands, especially the red band. The impact of the normalization procedures (forest normalization and relative normalization) was assessed on 210 image pairs: in all cases the correlation between the spectral values of the same land cover in both images was improved. The developed automatic pre-processing chain provided a consistent multi-temporal data set across the tropics that will constitute the basis for an automatic object-based supervised classification.  相似文献   

In situ rates of sulfate reduction in response to geochemical perturbations     

Kneeshaw TA  McGuire JT  Cozzarelli IM  Smith EW 《Ground water》2011,49(6):903-913

Rates of in situ microbial sulfate reduction in response to geochemical perturbations were determined using Native Organism Geochemical Experimentation Enclosures (NOGEEs), a new in situ technique developed to facilitate evaluation of controls on microbial reaction rates. NOGEEs function by first trapping a native microbial community in situ and then subjecting it to geochemical perturbations through the introduction of various test solutions. On three occasions, NOGEEs were used at the Norman Landfill research site in Norman, Oklahoma, to evaluate sulfate-reduction rates in wetland sediments impacted by landfill leachate. The initial experiment, in May 2007, consisted of five introductions of a sulfate test solution over 11 d. Each test stimulated sulfate reduction with rates increasing until an apparent maximum was achieved. Two subsequent experiments, conducted in October 2007 and February 2008, evaluated the effects of concentration on sulfate-reduction rates. Results from these experiments showed that faster sulfate-reduction rates were associated with increased sulfate concentrations. Understanding variability in sulfate-reduction rates in response to perturbations may be an important factor in predicting rates of natural attenuation and bioremediation of contaminants in systems not at biogeochemical equilibrium.  相似文献   

Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures     

Psarros G  Skjong R  Vanem E 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(1):116-127

This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion’s assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F = 1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs’ Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future decisions.  相似文献   

Physiological effects of hypercapnia in the deep-sea bivalve Acesta excavata (Fabricius, 1779) (Bivalvia; Limidae)     

Hammer KM  Kristiansen E  Zachariassen KE 《Marine environmental research》2011,72(3):135-142

The option of storing CO₂ in subsea rock formations to mitigate future increases in atmospheric CO₂ may induce problems for animals in the deep sea. In the present study the deep-sea bivalve Acesta excavata was subjected to environmental hypercapnia (pHSW 6.35, PCO₂ = 33,000 μatm) corresponding to conditions reported from natural CO₂ seeps. Effects on acid–base status and metabolic rate were related to time of exposure and subsequent recovery. During exposure there was an uncompensated drop in both hemolymph and intracellular pH. Intracellular pH returned to control values, while extracellular pH remained significantly lower during recovery. Intracellular non-bicarbonate buffering capacity of the posterior adductor muscle of hypercapnic animals was significantly lower than control values, but this was not the case for the remaining tissues analyzed. Oxygen consumption initially dropped by 60%, but then increased during the final stages of exposure, which may suggest a higher tolerance to hypercapnia than expected for a deep-living species.  相似文献   

A comparison between two stochastic diffusion models in a complex three-dimensional flow     

Erik Näslund  Howard C. Rodean  John S. Nasstrom 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1994,67(4):369-384

A Random Displacement Model (RDM) and a Langevin Equation Model (LEM) are used to simulate point releases in a complex flow around a building. The flow field is generated by a three-dimensional finite element model that uses the standardk- model to parameterize the turbulence. The RDM- and LEM-calculated concentration fields are compared, with particular emphasis on the structure in regions with high turbulence and/or recirculation. RDM and LEM results are similar qualitatively, but RDM tends to predict lower concentration levels. In part this is due to the higher early-time diffusion. However, the expected convergence at later times is prevented by the interaction of the diffusion with the strongly inhomogeneous mean flow.Notation a _i coefficient in the Langevin equation - b _ij coefficient in the Langevin equation - C ₀ the universal constant associated with the Lagrangian structure function - H building height (22.5 m) - K eddy viscosity - K _k eddy viscosity used in the definition of the off-diagonal Reynolds stresses - k turbulent kinetic energy - LEM Langevin Equation Model - p ₁ local unit vector in thexy-plane, orthogonal tos - p ₂ local unit vector, orthogonal to boths andp ₁ - RDM Random Displacement Model - s local unit vector in the streamline direction - T local decorrelation time (Lagrangian time scale) - U magnitude of the local Eulerian mean wind velocity - u _s total velocity in the streamline direction - u ₁ velocity component in thexy-plane, orthogonal to the streamline direction - u ₂ velocity component orthogonal to bothu _s andu ₁ - _i mean Eulerian wind velocity - W _i stochastic vector-valued Wiener process - x unit vector inx-direction - y unit vector iny-direction - z unit vector inz-direction - angle between thexy-plane and the mean wind streamline - angle between the projection in thexy-plane of the streamline and thex-axis - _ij the Kronecker delta function - rate of turbulence dissipation - _i/g_a the part ofa _i that contains mean wind and turbulence gradients - _ij inverse of a Reynolds stress tensor component - _ij shorthand for a quantity that defines a part of _i/g_a - _i shorthand for a quantity that defines a part of _i/g_a - _ij Reynolds stress tensor component  相似文献   

Bayesian techniques for seismic hazard assessment using imprecise data     

Juan José Egozcue  Erik Rüttener 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):91-112

Some Bayesian methods of dealing with inaccurate or vague data are introduced in the framework of seismic hazard assessment. Inaccurate data affected by heterogeneous errors are modeled by a probability distribution instead of the usual value plus a random error representation; these data are generically called imprecise. The earthquake size and the number of events in a certain time are modeled as imprecise data. Imprecise data allow us to introduce into the estimation procedures the uncertainty inherent in the inaccuracy and heterogeneity of the measuring systems from which the data were obtained. The problem of estimating the parameter of a Poisson process is shown to be feasible by the use of Bayesian techniques and imprecise data. This background technique can be applied to a general problem of seismic hazard estimation. Initially, data in a regional earthquake catalog are assumed imprecise both in size and location (i.e errors in the epicenter or spreading over a given source). By means of scattered attenuation laws, the regional catalog can be translated into a so-called site catalog of imprecise events. The site catalog is then used to estimate return periods or occurrence probabilities, taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Special attention is paid to priors in the Bayesian estimation. They can be used to introduce additional information as well as scattered frequency-size laws for local events. A simple example is presented to illustrate the capabilities of this methodology.  相似文献   

Satellite and surface temperature data at odds?     

James Hansen  Helene Wilson  Makiko Sato  Reto Ruedy  Kathy Shah  Erik Hansen 《Climatic change》1995,30(1):103-117

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On lateral viscosity contrast in the mantle and the rheology of low-frequency geodynamics   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Erik R. Ivins  Charles G. Sammis 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,123(2):305-322

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Statistics and geometry of the eigenspectra of three-dimensional second-rank symmetric random tensors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peiliang Xu  Erik Grafarend 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,127(3):744-756

Geoscientists have undertaken mapping of the Earth's crustal strain (or stress) fields using a great variety of field data. The output can be represented by a 3-D second-rank symmetric random strain tensor. The random principal strains-land rotations of the random tensor are frequently computed. The accuracy is calculated using a first-order approximation. The distribution aspects of the random principal strains and rotations have received almost no attention in Earth Sciences. A first-order approximation of accuracy may not be sufficient if the signal-to-noise ratio is small, as is often the case for geodetically derived random strain tensors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the distribution and estimation problems of the general 3-D second-rank tensor equation GΛG ^T= T , where T is a given 3-D second-rank symmetric random tensor, Λ a diagonal (3 × 3) random eigenvalue matrix, and G a (3 × 3) random orientation matrix, which is also orthogonal. Λ and G are to be estimated (or solved) from T . If some eigenvalues coincide, additional conditions are imposed on the eigenvectors so that they can be chosen uniquely. The joint probability density function (pdf) of the random eigenvalues and rotations will be worked out, given a joint pdf of the elements of random tensors T. Because the rotations are of special interest in Earth Sciences, we shall also derive the joint marginal pdf of random rotations. The geometry of eigenspectra will be studied. The biases of random eigenvalues and rotations will be derived, which have been neglected in the past. They can be very crucial in interpreting the pattern of a derived strain field, however, when applied to a real Earth Science problem. The variance-covariance matrices will be computed using a second-order approximation.  相似文献