A Functional Data Analysis Approach to Surrogate Modeling in Reservoir and Geomechanics Uncertainty Quantification     

Francesca Bottazzi  Ernesto Della Rossa 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(4):517-540

Uncertainty quantification for geomechanical and reservoir predictions is in general a computationally intensive problem, especially if a direct Monte Carlo approach with large numbers of full-physics simulations is used. A common solution to this problem, well-known for the fluid flow simulations, is the adoption of surrogate modeling approximating the physical behavior with respect to variations in uncertain parameters. The objective of this work is the quantification of such uncertainty both within geomechanical predictions and fluid-flow predictions using a specific surrogate modeling technique, which is based on a functional approach. The methodology realizes an approximation of full-physics simulated outputs that are varying in time and space when uncertainty parameters are changed, particularly important for the prediction of uncertainty in vertical displacement resulting from geomechanical modeling. The developed methodology has been applied both to a subsidence uncertainty quantification example and to a real reservoir forecast risk assessment. The surrogate quality obtained with these applications confirms that the proposed method makes it possible to perform reliable time–space varying dependent risk assessment with a low computational cost, provided the uncertainty space is low-dimensional.  相似文献   

Plankton carbon metabolism and air–water CO2 fluxes at a hypereutrophic tropical estuary          下载免费PDF全文

Mariana Guenther  Moacyr Araújo  Carlos Noriega  Manuel Flores‐Montes  Eliane Gonzalez‐Rodriguez  Sigrid Neumann‐Leitão 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(2)

Multiple biotic and abiotic drivers regulate the balance between CO₂ assimilation and release in surface waters. In the present study, we compared in situ measurements of plankton carbon metabolism (primary production and respiration) to calculated air–water CO₂ fluxes (based on abiotic parameters) during 1 year (2008) in a hypereutrophic tropical estuary (Recife Harbor, NE Brazil – 08°03′S, 34°52′W) to test the hypothesis that high productivity leads to a net CO₂ flux from the atmosphere. The calculated CO₂ fluxes through the air–water interface (FCO₂) were negative throughout the year (FCO₂: –2 to –9 mmol C·m^?2·day^?1), indicating that Recife Harbor is an atmospheric CO₂ sink. Respiration rates of the plankton community ranged from 2 to 45 mmol C·m^?2·hr^?1. Gross primary production ranged from 0.2 to 281 mmol C·m^?2·hr^?1, exceeding respiration during most of the year (net autotrophy), except for the end of the wet season, when the water column was net heterotrophic. The present results highlight the importance of including eutrophic tropical shallow estuaries in global air–water CO₂ flux studies, in order to better understand their role as a sink of atmospheric CO₂.  相似文献   

Curation planning and facilities for asteroid Bennu samples returned by the OSIRIS-REx mission     

K. Righter  N. G. Lunning  K. Nakamura-Messenger  C. J. Snead  J. McQuillan  M. Calaway  K. Allums  M. Rodriguez  R. C. Funk  R. S. Harrington  W. Connelly  T. Cowden  J. P. Dworkin  C. C. Lorentson  S. A. Sandford  E. B. Bierhaus  S. Freund  H. C. Connolly Jr  D. S. Lauretta 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2023,58(4):572-590

NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft collected samples from carbonaceous near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu on October 20, 2020, and will deliver them to the Earth on September 24, 2023. The samples will be processed at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), where most of the sample collection will be subsequently curated in a new cleanroom suite. The spacecraft collected loose regolith two ways: in a bulk sample chamber capable of holding up to 2 kg, and on industrial Velcro “contact pads” intended to collect small particles at the surface. Included in the JSC collection will be the bulk sample, the contact pads, contamination-monitoring witness plates, and supporting hardware. Planning for the curation of the samples and hardware started at the earliest phase of proposal development and continued in parallel with project development and execution. Because a major mission goal is characterization of organic compounds in the Bennu samples, extra effort was spent in the design stage to ensure a clean curation environment. Here, we describe the preparations to receive the sample, including the design, construction, outfitting, and monitoring of the cleanrooms at JSC; the planned recovery of the sample-containing capsule when it lands on Earth; and the approach to characterizing and cataloging the samples. These curation efforts will result in the distribution of pristine Bennu samples from JSC to the OSIRIS-REx science team, international partners, and the global scientific community for years to come.  相似文献