Performance of a nowcast/forecast system for Prince William Sound,Alaska     

Christopher N.K. Mooers  Xinglong WuInkweon Bang 《Continental Shelf Research》2009

A coastal ocean extended Prince William Sound nowcast/forecast system (EPWS/NFS) has been running semi-automatically for an extended domain of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska for 2 years. To determine the performance of this modeling system, an assessment is conducted. EPWS/NFS and PWS/NFS (viz., its predecessor) nowcasts are compared with observed time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level (CSL) at a few stations, and to velocity profiles from a moored ADCP. With the extension of the model domain to include the continental shelf outside PWS and forced by an operational global ocean model (Global-Navy Coastal Ocean Model (Global-NCOM)) and a 2D tidal model at the open boundary, EPWS/NFS has achieved significant improvement over PWS/NFS, which covered only PWS per se, for most of the predicted variables in this study. In both magnitude and phase, EPWS/NFS accurately predicts the coastal tide fluctuations, as well as M2 tidal currents in Central Sound, although significant errors in coastal tides exist during some spring and neap tide cycles. Other than for the tidal motions, EPWS/NFS generally produces less energetic CSL and velocity variations than those observed. In comparison, although PWS/NFS well predicts the coastal tides, it suffers from the absence of low-frequency CSL variations, as well as misprediction of M2 tidal currents in Central Sound. For 40 h low-passed PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS velocities, significant phase error occurs during the model–date comparison period, while EPWS/NFS nowcasts generally produce less root-mean-square-error (rmse) and smaller correlations with the observations than PWS/NFS does. Both observations and EPWS/NFS have similar vertical profiles of baroclinic velocity standard deviations, but some substantial discrepancies occur in the velocity direction. Also, in the Central Sound, EPWS/NFS predicts well the SST seasonal cycle and a major cooling event during the summer 2005. However, for periods shorter than 1 week, both PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS SST underestimated the observed fluctuations by an order of magnitude.  相似文献   

台湾海峡北部冬季水文特性对叶绿素a分布变化的作用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张钒  黄邦钦 《海洋科学》2000,24(10):1-3

营养盐是限制浮游植物生长的主要因素之一 ,但在冬季 ,温度也是浮游植物生长繁殖的控制因素。台湾海峡北部的水文情况复杂 ,低温低盐高营养盐的沿岸水与来自台湾海峡南部的高温高盐低营养盐水相互消长［１］,必定影响海区内营养物质及温度的分布及变化 ,这势必对海区浮游植物的生长及叶绿素ａ的分布和变化起到重要的控制作用。本文根据１９９８年２月在台湾海峡北部的调查资料 ,研究了海区内重要水文特征对于叶绿素ａ分布变化的作用。１材料与方法１９９８年２月 ,福建海洋研究所与厦门大学联合在台湾海峡北部进行了综合性海洋调查。观测站…  相似文献   

环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例          下载免费PDF全文

董棒棒  李莉  唐洪松  苏洋 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):689-697

基于STIRPAT模型,运用情景分析法对西北地区2017—2030年能源消费碳排放进行预测,在高、中、低三种环境规制强度下设定出9种发展模式,以分析环境规制与FDI对能源碳排放峰值的影响。研究表明：（1） 在初始发展情境下,西北地区2030年碳排放总量为70 273.07×10⁴ t,无法实现碳排放达峰目标。（2） 低环境规制背景下,高、高中、高低三种发展模式2030年能源消费碳排放额为73 550.53×10⁴ t、64 881.98×10⁴ t、56 296.96×10⁴ t。（3） 中、高环境规制下,中低、低两种发展模式分别于2025年、2020年达到碳排放峰值,峰值额度为53 447.15×10⁴ t、51 022.68×10⁴ t。能源碳排放强度为0.86 t·（10⁴元）^-1、0.68 t·（10⁴元）^-1,相比较2005年碳排放强度下降48.38%、60.14%。9种发展模式中,仅中低、低两种发展模式能够如期实现碳排放峰值任务,表明严格的环境规制政策能够有效减缓西北地区能源消费碳排放,为促进西北地区碳排放峰值目标如期实现,针对西北地区碳减排工作提出了相应对策建议。  相似文献   

自然水样微型藻类遗传多样性的方法学研究   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

邵鹏  袁洁  陈月琴  屈良鹄  黄邦钦 《海洋科学》2002,26(4):1-4

以海洋微型藻类为研究材料，探索和建立了适用于自然水样中低浓度微型藻类遗传多样性研究的分子生物学方法，为进一步开展海洋微型藻类多样性研究提供了新的分析手段。并在此基础上，对厦门西海域真核藻部分种群的结构特点进行了初步分析。  相似文献   

A Late Holocene geomagnetic secular variation record from Erhai Lake, southwest China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Masayuki Hyodo  Arata Yoshihara  Kenji Kashiwaya  Takashi Okimura  Toshiyuki Masuzawa  Ryotaro Nomura  Shingo Tanaka  Tang Bang Xing  Liu Su Qing  & Liu Shi Jian 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,136(3):784-790

A secular variation record of the geomagnetic field direction for the last 6.5  kyr has been obtained from the magnetization of sediment cores from Erhai Lake, southwest China. In order to make a comparison with this record, secular variation in east-central China was investigated by combining available magnetic field data from historical records and archaeomagnetic measurements since about 350 bc . The secular variation in Erhai Lake shows features consistent with the combined record, except for the oldest three observed declination swings in Sian from 720 to 900 ad . Many features of declination and inclination in China also occur in Japan. From 500 to 1000 ad , declination was westerly ranging from about −20° to −5° in Erhai Lake, east-central China, and Japan.  相似文献   

An assessment of a nowcast/forecast system for the straits of Florida/Florida Current regime     

Christopher N.K. Mooers Inkweon Bang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2005,4(4):288-292

The Florida Current （FC） largely fills the Straits of Florida and is variable on a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Some portions of the variability are due to variable forcing by tides, winds, heating/cooling, and throughflow; other portions are due to intrinsic instabilities of the FC. To predict, as well as to better understand this complex regime, a nowcast/forecast system （East Florida Shelf Information System （EFSIS）） has been implemented and assessed （http：//efsis. rsmas. miami. edu）. EFSIS is based on an implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model （POM） with mesoscale-admitting resolution on a curvilinear grid. It is forced by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system （called Eta） run operationally by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, eight tidal constituents from a global tidal model, and lateral boundary conditions from an operational global ocean prediction model, i.e., the Navy Coastal Ocean Model （NCOM）. Real-time observations of coastal sea level, coastal sea surface temperature, coastal HF radar-derived surface current maps, and FC volume transport are used to verify and validate EFSIS. EFSIS is part of an evolving strategy for real-time predictive coastal ocean modeling methodology, and for fostering the understanding of the variability of the regime on several time and space scales. Here, some of the verification and validation results are provided, as well as diagnostic analyses of dynamical processes. The central point is that an example is provided of a ＇scientific revolution＇ in progress that combines real-time observations and numerical circulation models to yield a credible sequence of synoptic views of coastal ocean circulation for the first time.  相似文献   

河槽汇流曲线法在北方中小河流水文预报的应用研究     

杨邦  刘玉晶  安会静 《水文》2017,37(1):46-50

作为一种"黑箱"河道演算方法,河槽汇流曲线具有原理简单,应用灵活的特点,应用研究结果表明:1若不考虑基流,进行陡涨陡落洪水演算时,利用马斯京根法所推求的河槽汇流曲线与马斯京根法的精度是相当的;2调整河槽汇流曲线上的值,能有效地模拟河道下渗,提高模拟精度;3曲线可模拟洪水滞后现象及流量分配过程;4河槽汇流曲线时段转换中,应用三次样条插值拟合S累积曲线可有效避免转换的河槽汇流曲线出现时段值"均化"现象,同时需对拟合中出现的凸形与凹形的"特殊"情况进行修正,以保证拟合S累积曲线的合理性。  相似文献   

基于语义位置网的地址位置预测方法     

金榜  李霖  沈航  周冬波  罗振威 《地理信息世界》2021,28(1):41-47,54

现有的地址数据库虽然覆盖面较广泛,但仍存在地址数据缺失的现象,针对未被包含在地址数据库中的地址如果进行有效的预测、定位等问题,提出了基于语义位置网的地址位置预测方法,首先从语义位置网中获取和地址具有语义近似关系的节点集合中获取包围盒;然后采用多种策略来寻找包围盒中点集的最佳空间分布;最后通过最优分布提供的点集,分别采用...  相似文献   

渤海湾盆地东营凹陷南斜坡断裂趋势带形成机制与控藏作用     

安邦  李宝刚  王伟锋  沈跃  孙艺飞  历鑫 《地质论评》2022,68(2):2022030001-2022030001

断裂趋势带是指盆地基底断裂继承性活动或盖层受到剪切作用影响而产生在盖层中的弱变形构造带,是主断裂面形成前的变形程度较弱的构造带。研究发现,东营凹陷南斜坡王家岗和八面河断裂趋势带是由一系列雁列式排列小断层带组成的,具有上宽下窄,下部收敛于主走滑断裂的特点。由于浅层没有主断层显现,故也称这种构造带为隐性断裂带,其形成机制和变形程度不同,发育的圈闭数量、圈闭性质等特征不同,富集油气的能力也有差异。构造物理模拟实验表明,王家岗和八面河断裂趋势带都形成于基底断裂走滑—伸展双重作用,前者走滑—伸展运动方向夹角为40°~50°,后者夹角为20°左右。前者处于断裂带发育的幼年期,变形程度较弱,趋势带宽度小,断裂密度小;后者处于断裂带发育的青年期,变形程度强,趋势带宽度大,断裂密度大,形成与断裂相关的圈闭数量多,油气聚集能力高于前者。根据断裂趋势带演化阶段、发育特征和源藏匹配关系,认为断裂趋势带变形强度是控制油气富集程度的关键因素。王家岗断裂趋势带成藏模式为“幼年期弱变形—单洼供烃成藏模式”,八面河断裂趋势带成藏模式为“青年期强变形—双洼供烃成藏模式”  相似文献   

基于BDS的主辅站技术在车载导航中的应用研究     

邹浜  王伟权  周文胜  高云志 《测绘工程》2015,(5)

为了克服传统车载导航定位技术的不足,提高定位精度,文中将基于北斗卫星导航系统的主辅站技术应用于车载导航中,主辅站技术有着可靠性高,无需双向数据传输和服务用户无数量限制等优点。理论研究和实践表明,基于主辅站技术的车载导航定位系统,其定位精度可以达到厘米级,实现车道级定位导航,并能在车辆即将越界时提供预警,防止车辆违章,具有一定的实用价值。  相似文献