地缘政治环境中的情景分析：中国的视角     

熊琛然  王礼茂  屈秋实  方叶兵  向宁 《世界地理研究》2019,28(3):1-10

地缘政治环境具有不确定性，难以用简约化理论和量化手段来应对，故尝试运用情景分析法来阐释其在地缘政治环境中的适用性。情景分析法是一种对未来可能出现的多种状况进行描述的方法，具有应对地缘政治环境的不确定性和弥补简约化理论解释和预测能力不足的功能。基于地缘政治想象，地缘政治行为主体进行的地缘政治实践改变了既有地缘政治状态的结果，从而引起地缘政治环境的变化。以此为背景将情景分析法应用于分析中国周边地缘政治环境，预测可能会出现中美竞合、中美俄日印五强博弈、部分周边国家游离于大国间、朝越菲等弱国逞强等四种常规情景和领土争端引发领土战争、美国军事手段消除朝鲜核威慑、朝鲜半岛冲突引发大国对抗等三种突发情景以及“一带一路”倡议下的周边命运共同体情景。  相似文献   

南海北部陆坡区海底峡谷地貌、沉积特征及控制因素          下载免费PDF全文

刘丛舒  丁巍伟  殷绍如  方鹏高  丁航航 《海洋学研究》2019,37(2):28-43

南海北部陆坡发育众多海底峡谷,其形成、发育、演化过程都存在较大差异。本文选取南海北部陆坡典型的珠江口外海底峡谷群、东沙海底峡谷、台湾浅滩南海底峡谷和澎湖海底峡谷进行研究,通过高分辨率多道地震数据和多波束测深数据,结合前人研究成果,对4条典型海底峡谷的形态特征、沉积充填特征及结构、形成发育过程及控制因素进行研究。结果表明,南海北部陆缘各个海底峡谷的形成受多个控制因素的影响,其影响程度及方式都有差别。构造活动、海平面变化及沉积物重力流与海底峡谷的演化密切相关,而陆地河流和局部构造因素也以不同方式影响着海底峡谷的发育。对于发育在主动大陆边缘的台湾岛东南侧的澎湖海底峡谷,其板块运动和岩浆活动活跃,其上发育的海底峡谷的控制因素以内营力地质作用为主。而具有被动大陆边缘属性的其他3条峡谷,由于构造运动较少或停止,其上发育的海底峡谷的控制因素以外营力地质作用为主。  相似文献   

信号易遮挡地区GPS/BDS双频单历元短基线解算精度分析     

严超  方新建  刘扬  徐炜  杜文选  王涛  张广汉 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(7):679-683

信号易遮挡地区GPS、BDS单系统可见卫星个数少，无法达到相对定位的最低要求。讨论了GPS/BDS组合单历元基线解算模型，在多种模拟环境下将GPS/BDS联合解算结果与GPS和BDS单系统在可见卫星数、模糊度固定成功率、定位精度等方面进行对比分析。结果表明，相对于单系统单历元基线解算，GPS/BDS组合大大增加了可见卫星数，提高了模糊度固定成功率，并在极端的观测条件下有效地改善了定位精度，使信号易遮挡地区双频单历元基线解算精度可以达到cm级甚至mm级。  相似文献   

基于PHOTOMOD对不同类型航摄影像进行空三加密的方法研究     

姜海兰  程诗宇  龙竹  阎广建  魏婉秋  方圆 《测绘与空间地理信息》2020,(1):10-13

在学习PHOTOMOD基本功能的基础上,探索该软件对框幅式影像、卫星影像和推扫式三线阵影像进行空三加密的实现方法。其中,框幅式的实验数据包括传统RC-30胶片式影像以及带POS(POSition Orientation System)数据的UCE相机和UCXP_WA相机拍摄的影像;卫片的实验数据为法国的Pleiades卫星影像;推扫式的实验数据为ADS80 L1级影像。本文从空三加密中内定向、航线划分、同名点匹配和平差计算等主要功能出发,探索并总结了软件对以上影像进行空三加密的实现方法以及存在的主要问题。本文的试验和研究对空三加密和4D产品生产具有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。  相似文献   

1979年9月19日3B级耀斑光谱分析:金属线的不对称性和线心位移     

丁明德  方成  Okamoto Tomizo 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1993,(3)

本文研究了1979年9月19日3B级耀斑金属谱线的不对称性和线心位移.结果表明:强金属线红不对称占主要地位,少数弱金属线也有蓝不对称存在;不对称程度极大发生于线心强度极大之前;不对称性有时可由蓝变红;不管不对称程度如何,线心的位移却很小,总体上仅表现为极微弱的蓝移.文中认为,耀斑爆发时色球压缩区的向下扩展及由此引起的温度极小区上下的物质运动这个动力学过程可基本解释这些观测现象.金属线的研究是对H_α和CaIIK线光谱研究的补充.  相似文献   

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific     

Shumin CHEN  Weibiao LI  Zhiping WEN  Mingsen ZHOU  Youyu LU  Yu-Kun QIAN  Haoya LIU  Rong FANG 《大气科学进展》2018,35(4):423-434

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific(WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m(MWS_(10)) from an ensemble of15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS_(10) are similar in the WNP and South China Sea(SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS(1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP(2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations,and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit(2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.  相似文献   

Circulation Features Associated with the Record-breaking Typhoon Silence in August 2014     

Jianpu BIAN  Juan FANG  Guanghua CHEN  Chengji LIU 《大气科学进展》2018,35(10):1321-1336

Climatologically, August is the month with the most tropical cyclone(TC) formation over the western North Pacific(WNP) during the typhoon season. In this study, the reason for abnormal TC activity during August is discussed—especially August 2014, when no TCs formed. The large-scale background of August 2014 is presented, with low-level large-scale easterly anomalies and anticyclonic anomalies dominating over the main TC genesis region, a weak monsoon trough system,and a strong WNP subtropical high(WPSH), leading to significantly reduced low-level convergence, upper-level divergence,and mid-level upward motion. These unfavorable large-scale conditions suppressed convection and cyclogenesis. In August2014, equatorial waves were inactive within the negative phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), with fewer tropical disturbances. Although the low-level vorticity and convection of those disturbances were partly promoted by the convective envelopes of equatorial waves, the integral evolution of disturbances, as well as the equatorial waves, were suppressed when propagating into the negative MJO phase. Moreover, the upper-level potential vorticity(PV) streamers associated with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events imported extratropical cold and dry air into the tropics. The peripheral tropospheric dryness and enhanced vertical wind shear by PV streamer intrusion combined with the negative MJO phase were responsible for the absence of TC formation over the WNP in August 2014.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Response to Mesoscale Ocean Eddies over the South China Sea     

Haoya LIU  Weibiao LI  Shumin CHEN  Rong FANG  Zhuo LI 《大气科学进展》2018,35(9):1189-1204

The South China Sea(SCS) is an eddy-active area. Composite analyses based on 438 mesoscale ocean eddies during 2000–2012 revealed the status of the atmospheric boundary layer is influenced remarkably by such eddies. The results showed cold-core cyclonic(warm-core anticyclonic) eddies tend to cool(warm) the overlying atmosphere and cause surface winds to decelerate(accelerate). More than 5% of the total variance of turbulent heat fluxes, surface wind speed and evaporation rate are induced by mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, mesoscale eddies locally affect the columnar water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate. Dynamical analyses indicated that both variations of atmospheric boundary layer stability and sea level pressure are responsible for atmospheric anomalies over mesoscale eddies. To reveal further details about the mechanisms of atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies, atmospheric manifestations over a pair of cold and warm eddies in the southwestern SCS were simulated. Eddy-induced heat flux anomalies lead to changes in atmospheric stability. Thus, anomalous turbulence kinetic energy and friction velocity arise over the eddy dipole, which reduce(enhance) the vertical momentum transport over the cold(warm) eddy, resulting in the decrease(increase) of sea surface wind. Diagnoses of the model's momentum balance suggested that wind speed anomalies directly over the eddy dipole are dominated by vertical mixing terms within the atmospheric boundary layer, while wind anomalies on the edges of eddies are produced by atmospheric pressure gradient forces and atmospheric horizontal advection terms.  相似文献   

南太平洋辐合带季节循环及与地形和非绝热加热变化的联系     

于亚鑫  管兆勇  方陆俊  孙婧超 《气象学报》2018,76(4):566-577

利用1981—2015年NCEP/NCAR月平均资料、NOAA的逐月CMAP（CPC（Climate Prediction Center）Merged Analysis of Precipitation）降水资料以及GODAS的月平均洋流资料和SODA的月平均风应力资料,定义了南太平洋辐合带（SPCZ）的关键区域,对南太平洋辐合带的季节变化特征及南太平洋辐合带的形成和维持原因进行了分析。结果表明,在南太平洋辐合带,4月存在由东西风切变型辐合带向东风辐合型辐合带转变的现象,而12月则存在相反的转换。在对流层低层,南太平洋辐合带区域的向上伸展高度和辐合在北半球冬季较其他季节明显高和强。引起南太平洋辐合带形成与维持的原因有2个方面:一是地形作用。由于地形的阻挡,造成等位涡线发生沿澳大利亚地形的绕行,利于澳大利亚地区反气旋性环流和南太平洋辐合带区域气旋性环流的形成与维持;同时,在地形和科里奥利力共同作用下,还易使暖海水在南太平洋辐合带区域汇聚,形成高海表温度区,从而加热大气,利于南太平洋辐合带的形成与维持。二是非绝热加热作用。南太平洋辐合带区域范围内的热源作用可以使其上方的大气受到加热,并产生加热强迫纬向梯度,驱动低层大气产生辐合。这些结果对深刻认识全球环流特别是南半球热带环流变化有重要意义。   相似文献   

中国自然地理学中的气候变化研究前沿进展   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

郑景云  方修琦  吴绍洪 《地理科学进展》2018,37(1):16-27

气候学是自然地理学的重要组成部分;过去气候变化和当代气候增暖的影响与适应研究是中国自然地理学在气候变化领域的2个主要研究方向。本文综述了这2个研究方向的主要进展,包括：分别简述研究的意义、发展历程与主要科学问题;梳理总结中国过去气候变化重建与时空特征分析,历史时期气候变化的影响,全球增暖背景下中国气候区划变动特征,全球增暖对中国自然生态系统、水资源、农业等方面影响的区域差异,气候变化的综合风险区划等方面的前沿进展,特别是在各方面所取得的主要科学认识;以期为未来的深入研究,特别是编制相关领域和学科发展战略提供参考。  相似文献