Due to increasing development Southeast Asia’s coastlines are undergoing massive changes, but the associated impacts on marine habitats are poorly known. Singapore, a densely populated island city–state, is a quintessential example of coastal modification that has resulted in the (hitherto undocumented) loss of seagrass. We reconstructed the historic extent and diversity of local seagrass meadows through herbarium records and backwards extrapolation from contemporary seagrass locations. We also determined the current status of seagrass meadows using long-term monitoring data and identified the main threats to their presence in Singapore. Results show that, even though ∼45% of seagrass has been lost during the last five decades, species diversity remains stable. The main cause of seagrass loss was, and continues to be, land reclamation. We conclude that strict controls on terrestrial runoff and pollution have made it possible for seagrass to persist adjacent to this highly urbanised city–state. 相似文献
Mineralogy and Petrology - The chloritization of biotite and stable isotopes of silicate have been studied for the Zafarghand porphyry copper deposit, Ardestan, Iran. The studied area, in the... 相似文献
The prediction of wave parameters has a great significance in the coastal and offshore engineering. For this purpose, several models and approaches have been proposed to predict wave parameters, such as empirical, soft computing, and numerical based approaches. Recently, soft computing techniques such as recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been used to develop sea wave prediction models. In this study, the RNN for wave prediction based on the data gathered and the measurement of the sea waves in the Caspian Sea, in the north of Iran is used for this study. The efficiency of RNNs for 3, 6, and 12 hourly and diurnal wave prediction using correlation coefficients is calculated to be 0.96, 0.90, 0.87, and 0.73, respectively. This indicates that wave prediction by using RNNs yields better results than the previous neural network approaches. 相似文献
Investigation on drought characteristics such as severity, duration, and frequency is crucial for water resources planning and management in a river basin. While the methodology for multivariate drought frequency analysis is well established by applying the copulas, the estimation on the associated parameters by various parameter estimation methods and the effects on the obtained results have not yet been investigated. This research aims at conducting a comparative analysis between the maximum likelihood parametric and non-parametric method of the Kendall \(\tau \) estimation method for copulas parameter estimation. The methods were employed to study joint severity–duration probability and recurrence intervals in Karkheh River basin (southwest Iran) which is facing severe water-deficit problems. Daily streamflow data at three hydrological gauging stations (Tang Sazbon, Huleilan and Polchehr) near the Karkheh dam were used to draw flow duration curves (FDC) of these three stations. The \(Q_{75}\) index extracted from the FDC were set as threshold level to abstract drought characteristics such as drought duration and severity on the basis of the run theory. Drought duration and severity were separately modeled using the univariate probabilistic distributions and gamma–GEV, LN2–exponential, and LN2–gamma were selected as the best paired drought severity–duration inputs for copulas according to the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Kolmogorov–Smirnov and chi-square tests. Archimedean Clayton, Frank, and extreme value Gumbel copulas were employed to construct joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDF) of droughts for each station. Frank copula at Tang Sazbon and Gumbel at Huleilan and Polchehr stations were identified as the best copulas based on the performance evaluation criteria including AIC, BIC, log-likelihood and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Based on the RMSE values, nonparametric Kendall-\(\tau \) is preferred to the parametric maximum likelihood estimation method. The results showed greater drought return periods by the parametric ML method in comparison to the nonparametric Kendall \(\tau \) estimation method. The results also showed that stations located in tributaries (Huleilan and Polchehr) have close return periods, while the station along the main river (Tang Sazbon) has the smaller return periods for the drought events with identical drought duration and severity. 相似文献
ABSTRACT The Tafresh plutons that include Ahmadabab diorite, Vasfonjerd monzonite, Mehrezamin diorite and Chahak diorite, located to the east of Tafresh city, north-central Iran, are part of Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc. U-Pb dating of zircon grains provides emplacement ages of 22.3 ± 1 Ma for the Ahmadabad diorite, and tightly clustered ages of 22.2 ± 0.2 Ma, 21.3 ± 0.2 Ma, and 21.7 ± 0.4 Ma for Vasfonjerd monzodiorite, Mehrezamin diorite-monzonite, and Chahak diorite-monzonite plutons, respectively. These rocks are metaluminous to weakly peraluminous, calc-alkaline, and characterized by enrichment in light rare earth elements, Nb-Ta negative anomalies, and high LILE/HFSE ratios. Tafresh plutonic rocks originated from a parental magma source and experienced different degrees of partial melting. Geochemical signatures of Tafresh plutonic rocks, such as a wide range of Y/Nb (2.7–8.4) and low Zr/Nb (19.5–35.) ratios, Nb/Ta (11.46–18.15), argue for mantle–crust interaction during generation of Tafresh magmas. Relatively low Nb/La ratios further indicate that the lithospheric mantle played a significant role in melt generation. HREE signatures (i.e. decrease Dy/Yb with increasing SiO2) preclude substantial involvement of garnet either in the residue, both during partial melting and fractionation of the magma. The plutons are a product of final stages of subduction-related magmatism prior to the collision between the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates. 相似文献
A 22-member ensemble from CMIP6 is used to analyze the projected changes and seasonal behavior in surface air temperature over South America during the twenty-first century. In the future projections, CMIP6 models shown a high dependency to the socioeconomic pathway over each country of South America. The multimodel ensemble projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South America during the twenty-first century under the three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Besides, it was possible to identify consistent positive trends across all the models, with values between 0.45 ± 0.05 and 2.05 ± 0.31 °C cy−1 under the historical experiment, however largest trends occurs for the projection periods (near, mid and far future), with values between − 0.87 ± 0.84 to 2.88 ± 0.60 °C cy−1 (SSP1-2.6), 1.41 ± 0.88 to 5.32 ± 0.81 °C cy−1 (SSP2-4.5) and 4.75 ± 0.58 to 8.76 ± 0.74 °C cy−1 (SSP5-8.5) with maximum values at Bolivia, Brasil, Paraguay and Venezuela whilst minimum values for Argentina and Uruguay, regardless of the SSP scenario used. From the seasonal behavior analysis was possible to identify maximum values between January and March whilst minimum between June and July, except in Brasil, Venezuela and Guyana–Surinam–French Guayana, with annual range decreasing as the latidude decreases. By the end of the twenty-first century the annual mean temperature over South america is projected to increase between 0.92–2.11 °C, 0.97–3.37 °C and 1.27–6.14 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projection scenarios respectively. This projected increase of temperature across the continent will produce negative repercussions in the social, economic and political spheres. The results obtained in this study provide insights about the CMIP6 performance over this region, which can be used to develop adaptation strategies and might be useful for the adaptation to the climate change.
Natural Hazards - Climate change is likely to increase the risk of drought which impacts on health are not quite known well due to its creeping nature. This study maps the publications on the... 相似文献
In nonlinear dynamic structural analysis, a suite of pulse-like ground motions is required for the performance-based design of structures near active faults. The dissimilarity in the amplitude and frequency content of the earthquake time series referred to nonstationary properties in temporal and spectral, respectively. An approach is proposed based on the nonstationary properties of the far-field records and the seismological information in an event for simulating pulse-like records. The pulse-like earthquake time history is estimated via the superposition of the residual part of the earthquake with the estimated pulse. The wavelet-based Hilbert transform is utilized to characterize the nonstationary properties, the instantaneous amplitude, and frequencies of far-field records to model residual part. The effects of near-fault and pulse are estimated based on the seismological properties of the region. The validation of the procedure is indicated by comparing simulated time-series, response spectra, and Arias intensity with recorded pulse-like records in two different earthquakes in California; the Mw 6.7 1994 Northridge and the Mw 6.5 1979 Imperial valley.
Acta Geotechnica - Designing structures to be the least vulnerable within earthquake-prone areas is a serious challenge for structural engineers. One common and useful tool that structural... 相似文献
