Super-ensemble techniques: Application to surface drift prediction   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

L. Vandenbulcke  J.-M. Beckers  A. Barth  M. Aidonidis  F. Ardhuin  C. Fratianni  D. Pallela  M. Tudor  P. Martin  M. Rixen 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,82(3):149-167

The prediction of surface drift of floating objects is an important task, with applications such as marine transport, pollutant dispersion, and search-and-rescue activities. But forecasting even the drift of surface waters is very challenging, because it depends on complex interactions of currents driven by the wind, the wave field and the general prevailing circulation. Furthermore, although each of those can be forecasted by deterministic models, the latter all suffer from limitations, resulting in imperfect predictions. In the present study, we try and predict the drift of two buoys launched during the DART06 (Dynamics of the Adriatic sea in Real-Time 2006) and MREA07 (Maritime Rapid Environmental Assessment 2007) sea trials, using the so-called hyper-ensemble technique: different models are combined in order to minimize departure from independent observations during a training period; the obtained combination is then used in forecasting mode. We review and try out different hyper-ensemble techniques, such as the simple ensemble mean, least-squares weighted linear combinations, and techniques based on data assimilation, which dynamically update the model’s weights in the combination when new observations become available. We show that the latter methods alleviate the need of fixing the training length a priori, as older information is automatically discarded.When the forecast period is relatively short (12 h), the discussed methods lead to much smaller forecasting errors compared with individual models (at least three times smaller), with the dynamic methods leading to the best results. When many models are available, errors can be further reduced by removing colinearities between them by performing a principal component analysis. At the same time, this reduces the amount of weights to be determined.In complex environments when meso- and smaller scale eddy activity is strong, such as the Ligurian Sea, the skill of individual models may vary over time periods smaller than the forecasting period (e.g. when the latter is 36 h). In these cases, a simpler method such as a fixed linear combination or a simple ensemble mean may lead to the smallest forecast errors. In environments where surface currents have strong mean-kinetic energies (e.g. the Western Adriatic Current), dynamic methods can be particularly successful in predicting the drift of surface waters. In any case, the dynamic hyper-ensemble methods allow to estimate a characteristic time during which the model weights are more or less stable, which allows predicting how long the obtained combination will be valid in forecasting mode, and hence to choose which hyper-ensemble method one should use.  相似文献   

Shear zones in porous sand: Insights from ring-shear experiments and naturally deformed sandstones   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Anita Torabi  Alvar Braathen  Fabrice Cuisiat  Haakon Fossen 《Tectonophysics》2007,437(1-4):37-50

In a high-resolution small-scale seismic experiment we investigated the shallow structure of the Wadi Araba fault (WAF), the principal fault strand of the Dead Sea Transform System between the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat and the Dead Sea. The experiment consisted of 8 sub-parallel 1 km long seismic lines crossing the WAF. The recording station spacing was 5 m and the source point distance was 20 m. The first break tomography yields insight into the fault structure down to a depth of about 200 m. The velocity structure varies from one section to the other which were 1 to 2 km apart, but destinct velocity variations along the fault are visible between several profiles. The reflection seismic images show positive flower structures and indications for different sedimentary layers at the two sides of the main fault. Often the superficial sedimentary layers are bent upward close to the WAF. Our results indicate that this section of the fault (at shallow depths) is characterized by a transpressional regime. We detected a 100 to 300 m wide heterogeneous zone of deformed and displaced material which, however, is not characterized by low seismic velocities at a larger scale. At greater depth the geophysical images indicate a blocked cross-fault structure. The structure revealed, fault cores not wider than 10 m, are consistent with scaling from wear mechanics and with the low loading to healing ratio anticipated for the fault.  相似文献   

Interannual variability and predictability of African easterly waves in a GCM     

Fabrice Chauvin  Jean-François Royer  Hervé Douville 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(5):523-544

The interannual variability of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) is assessed with the help of spatio-temporal spectral analysis (STSA) and complex empirical orthogonal functions methods applied to the results of ten-member multiyear ensemble simulations. Two sets of experiments were conducted with the Météo-France ARPEGE-Climat GCM, one with interactive soil moisture (control), and the other with soil moisture relaxed towards climatological monthly means calculated from the control. Composites of Soudano–Sahelian AEWs were constructed and associated physical processes and dynamics were studied in the frame of the waves. It is shown that the model is able to simulate realistically some interannual variability in the AEWs, and that this dynamical aspect of the West African climate is potentially predictable (i.e. signal can be extracted from boundary conditions relatively to internal error of the GCM), especially along the moist Guinean coast. Compared with ECMWF 15-year reanalysis (ERA15), the maximum activity of AEWs is located too far to the South and is somewhat too zonal, but the main characteristics of the waves are well represented. The major impact of soil moisture relaxation in the GCM experiments is to reduce the seasonal potential predictability of AEWs over land by enhancing their internal variability.  相似文献   

Electrical conductivity of polycrystalline Mg(OH)<Subscript>2</Subscript> at 2 GPa: effect of grain boundary hydration–dehydration     

Julien Gasc  Fabrice Brunet  Nikolai Bagdassarov  Victor Morales-Flórez 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2011,38(7):543-556

The effect of intergranular water on the conductivity of polycrystalline brucite, Mg(OH)₂, was investigated using impedance spectroscopy at 2 GPa, during consecutive heating–cooling cycles in the 298–980 K range. The grain boundary hydration levels tested here span water activities from around unity (wet conditions) down to 10⁻⁴ (dry conditions) depending on temperature. Four orders of magnitude in water activity result in electrical conductivity variations for about 6–7 orders of magnitude at 2 GPa and room temperature. Wet brucite samples containing, initially, about 18 wt% of evaporable water (i.e. totally removed at temperatures below 393 K in air), display electrical conductivity values above 10⁻²–10⁻³ S/m. A.C. electrical conductivity as a function of temperature follows an Arrhenius behaviour with an activation energy of 0.11 eV. The electrical conductivity of the same polycrystalline brucite material dried beforehand at 393 K (dry conditions) is lower by about 5–6 orders of magnitude at room temperature and possesses an activation energy of 0.8–0.9 eV which is close to that of protonic diffusion in (001) brucitic planes. Above ca. 873 K, a non-reversible conductivity jump is observed which is interpreted as a water transfer from mineral bulk to grain boundaries (i.e. partial dehydration). Cooling of such partially dehydrated sample shows electrical conductivities much higher than those of the initially dry sample by 4 orders of magnitude at 500 K. Furthermore, the corresponding activation energy is decreased by a factor of about four (i.e. 0.21 eV). Buffering of the sample at low water activity has been achieved by adding CaO or MgO, two hygroscopic compounds, to the starting material. Then, sample conductivities reached the lowest values encountered in this study with the activation energy of 1.1 eV. The strong dependency of the electrical conductivity with water activity highlights the importance of the latter parameter as a controlling factor of diffusion rates in natural processes where water availability and activity may vary grandly. Water exchange between mineral bulk and mineral boundary suggests that grain boundary can be treated as an independent phase in dehydroxylation reactions.  相似文献   

Redistribution of riverine and rainfall freshwater by the Bay of Bengal circulation     

Chaitanya  Akurathi Venkata Sai  Vialard  Jérôme  Lengaigne  Matthieu  d’Ovidio  Francesco  Riotte  Jean  Papa  Fabrice  James  Rathinam Arthur 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(11-12):1113-1139

Ocean Dynamics - We use satellite-derived currents and a Lagrangian approach to investigate the redistribution of the precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) and river freshwater inputs into Bay of...  相似文献   

Dating the Tethyan Ocean in the Western Alps with radiolarite pebbles from synorogenic Oligocene molasse basins (southeast France)     

Fabrice Cordey  Pierre Tricart  Stéphane Guillot  Stéphane Schwartz 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2012,105(1):39-48

For the first time in the Western Alps, radiolarite pebbles collected from Tertiary foreland molasse conglomerates are treated for microfossil extraction and dated. Among forty pebbles collected in the field, seven of them released diagnostic radiolarian assemblages ranging in age from Late Bajocian?CEarly Callovian to Middle Oxfordian?CEarly Tithonian. These ages overlap previous biochronological data obtained from in situ localities of the Schistes Lustrés Piemont zone of the French-Italian Alps and triple the number of diagnostic radiolarite samples known so far in this segment of the chain. The diagnostic pebbles are characterized by low grade metamorphism, showing that some eroded thrust-sheets from the oldest parts of the ocean escaped any tectonic burial during the Alpine convergence. Mixing of low and high-grade radiolarites, mafics and ultramafics pebbles implies that various ocean-derived units were exposed. This tectonic scenario involves tight refolding and severe uplift of the Eocene subduction wedge in the Early Oligocene.  相似文献   

Interactions climat-eustatisme-tectonique. Les enseignements et perspectives du Crétacé supérieur (Cénomanien-Coniacien)     

Fabrice Malartre  Serge Ferry  Jean-Loup Rubino 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(6):253-270

Résumé

Une analyse de séries sédimentaires d’âge Crétacé supérieur dans le Sud-Est de la France a été entreprise et intégrée dans un cadre de stratigraphie séquentielle. Les limites Cénomanien–Turonien et la limite Turonien–Coniacien sont marquées par des variations rapides et de fortes amplitudes du niveau marin relatif. La comparaison effectuée avec d’autres bassins mondiaux nous amène à envisager le problème dans un cadre global. On constate : (1) le synchronisme d’événements à haute fréquence dans des contextes géodynamiques différents. (2) les effets de la superposition de cycles eustatiques hiérarchiquement différents, c’est-à-dire la superposition d’oscillations à haute fréquence sur une composante de 3^e ordre. Ces observations sont confrontées à deux hypothèses : le glacio-eustatisme et la tectonique à haute fréquence. © Elsevier, Paris.  相似文献   

Development and decay of a lithalsa in Northern Québec: A geomorphological history     

Fabrice Calmels  Michel Allard  Georg Delisle 《Geomorphology》2008,97(3-4):287-299

The complete life cycle of a permafrost mound is reconstructed from its growth until its degradation. The study site is a lithalsa, which is the subject of a long-term monitoring that includes geocryological observations, measurements of permafrost properties on cores, ground temperature measurements, and observations of landform changes. The landform likely grew as a palsa under cold climatic conditions in the past. The peat cover was subsequently eroded. Early stages of degradation are witnessed since 2003 as a new thermokarst pond is starting to form though mound collapse. Settlement of the structure has been observed, and a rim ridge has begun to form. Ultimately, the lithalsa shall disappear and be replaced by a circular thermokarst pond surrounded by a rampart, similar to many other ones in the study area. The monitoring of the thermal regime of the lithalsa illustrates the pattern of internal warming and points to the causes of its degradation.  相似文献   

Impact of the configuration of stretching and ocean–atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone activity in the variable-resolution GCM ARPEGE     

Anne Sophie Daloz  Fabrice Chauvin  Frank Roux 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(9-10):2343-2359

This study starts by investigating the impact of the configuration of the variable-resolution atmospheric grid on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The French atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE, the grid of which is rotated and stretched over the North Atlantic basin, was used with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The study clearly shows that changing the position of the stretching pole strongly modifies the representation of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. A pole in the centre of the North Atlantic basin provides the best representation of the TC activity for this region. In a second part, the variable-resolution climate model ARPEGE is coupled with the European oceanic global climate model NEMO in order to study the impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. Two pre-industrial runs, a coupled simulation and a simulation forced by the sea surface temperatures from the coupled one, are compared. The results show that the coupled simulation is more active in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while the forced simulation is more active over eastern Florida and the eastern Atlantic. The difference in the distribution of TC activity is certainly linked with the location of TC genesis. In the forced simulation, tropical cyclogenesis is closer to the west African coast than in the coupled simulation. Moreover, the difference in TC activity over the eastern Atlantic seems to be related to two different mechanisms: the difference in African easterly wave activity over the west of Africa and the cooling produced, in the coupled simulation, by African easterly waves over the eastern Atlantic. Finally, the last part studies the impact of changing the frequency of ocean–atmosphere coupling on Atlantic TC activity. Increasing the frequency of coupling decreases the density of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. However, it does not modify the spatial distribution of the TC activity. TC rainfalls are decreased by 8?% in the high frequency coupled run.  相似文献   

Characterization of contact properties in biocemented sand using 3D X-ray micro-tomography     

Dadda  Abdelali  Geindreau  Christian  Emeriault  Fabrice  Rolland du Roscoat  Sabine  Esnault Filet  Annette  Garandet  Aurélie 《Acta Geotechnica》2019,14(3):597-613

The mechanical efficiency of the biocementation process is directly related to the microstructural properties of the biocemented sand, such as the volume fraction of calcite, its distribution within the pore space (localized at the contact between grains, over the grain surfaces) and the contact properties: coordination number, contact surface area, contacts orientation and types of contact. In the present work, all these micromechanical properties are computed, for the first time, from 3D images obtained by X-ray tomography of intact biocemented sand samples. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analyzed and compared between each other (from untreated sand to highly cemented sand). Whatever the volume fraction of calcite, it is shown that the precipitation of the calcite is localized at the contacts between grains. These results are confirmed by comparing our numerical results with analytical estimates assuming that the granular medium is made of periodic simple cubic arrangements of grains and by considering two extreme cases of precipitation: (1) The calcite is localized at the contact, and (2) the grains are covered by a uniform layer of calcite. In overall, the obtained results show that a small percentage of calcite is sufficient to get a large amount of cohesive contacts.

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